How many wins would this team have?

Discussion in 'NBA General' started by durvasa, Jan 31, 2010.

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How many wins if playing in the Eastern Conference?

  1. 60+ wins

    4 vote(s)
    44.4%
  2. 55-59 wins

    1 vote(s)
    11.1%
  3. 50-54 wins

    4 vote(s)
    44.4%
  4. 45-49 wins

    0 vote(s)
    0.0%
  5. <45 wins

    0 vote(s)
    0.0%
  1. durvasa

    durvasa JBB Rockets Fan

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    ----- starters ----
    G Mo Williams
    G Kobe Bryant
    F Anthony Parker
    F J.J. Hickson
    C Shaquille O'Neal
    ----- bench -------
    F Andersen Varejao
    G Delonte West
    C Zydranus Ilgauskas
    F Jamario Moon
    G Daniel Gibson
     
  2. Sex Panther

    Sex Panther works every time.

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    I think this team is still a 50 team win. How much past 50? My guess is 6 to 8.
     
  3. Master Shake

    Master Shake young phoenix

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    60 wins easily.
     
  4. Shapecity

    Shapecity S2/JBB Teamster Staff Member Administrator

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    It depends on a few things.

    1. The Kobe-Shaq dynamic
    2. What type of offense would this team use?

    Replacing LeBron with Anthony Parker this team loses some of it's size advantage in the front court.

    I voted for 60 win season because the Cavs play consistent defense and are a strong rebounding force. The East is a weaker conference as well.
     
  5. durvasa

    durvasa JBB Rockets Fan

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    I voted 50-54. I think LeBron is responsible for about 4-5 points more per game (of his team's point differential) than Kobe Bryant in the regular season. Supposing we reduce LeBron's current per-game +/- impact by only 4 points, the Cav's projected win total drops from 60 to 50. After that, 50-54 seems like a fair prediction after accounting for a slightly easier schedule (due to playing in the East).

    Its difficult for me to imagine that team shown in the first post winning 60 games. Kobe would have to do too much on the offensive end to maintain such a pace, and considering his various ailments this season I'm not sure he'd be able to do so.
     
  6. Shapecity

    Shapecity S2/JBB Teamster Staff Member Administrator

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    How would've last year's Rocket team done in the Eastern conference this season?
     
  7. Sex Panther

    Sex Panther works every time.

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    I don't know, it's just hard to tell. For one, when Kobe is on this Laker team, he doesn't need to do as much as Lebron. I'd venture to say that if Kobe were on this Cavs team playing the way they do (where Kobe would dominate the ball), Kobe's assists would definitely go up. Not sure about rebounding though. But he'd definitely be scoring more, especially without a real 2nd 20 PPG scorer.
     
  8. durvasa

    durvasa JBB Rockets Fan

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    Maybe 56 or 57 wins. I think people tend to overstate the effect of playing in a different conference. A large percentage of the schedule is identical. And whichever conference you're playing in, the other teams will be better prepared for you.
     
  9. Moo2K4

    Moo2K4 NBA West Producer

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    The biggest thing about playing in the East isn't necessarily an easier schedule, it's the playoff picture. You go from needing 45-50 wins just to get in to the playoffs in the West, to needing 33-37, with 45 probably landing you HCA during most years.
     
  10. Shapecity

    Shapecity S2/JBB Teamster Staff Member Administrator

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    According to the results of the Swap Tool from QueenCityHoops.

    Kobe would win more games than LeBron if you swapped them. It estimates 67 wins with Kobe. Kobe's net efficiency on the defensive end trumps LeBron's offensive efficiency.
     
  11. durvasa

    durvasa JBB Rockets Fan

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    I'm not sure how those offensive and defensive efficiencies are being calculated. According to 82games, LeBron's on court offensive efficiency and defensive efficiency are both better than Kobe's. But according to that site, Kobe's on court defense is better.
     
  12. Shapecity

    Shapecity S2/JBB Teamster Staff Member Administrator

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    http://queencityhoops.com/StatsLie.php

    I think the formulas on this link.
     
  13. Shapecity

    Shapecity S2/JBB Teamster Staff Member Administrator

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  14. Shapecity

    Shapecity S2/JBB Teamster Staff Member Administrator

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    I tried a few other player swaps. Kevin Durant appears to make the largest difference based on this season's stats. Maybe Durant should be the MVP this year?
     
  15. durvasa

    durvasa JBB Rockets Fan

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    I was actually reading the numbers on 82games incorrectly, its consistent. It determines Kobe's defensive impact to be better based on opponent statistics; it looks like LeBron rates as a better offensive player while Kobe rates as a better defensive player. Defense is tough to measure accurately but I do think there is some merit to their approach.
     
  16. kobe23

    kobe23 JBB JustBBall Member

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    The site shape suggested took into account lebron james' game's impact on the other players on the roster... meaning would they get the ball just as much with lebron as opposed to running the triangle.

    makes sense.
     

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