Suppose you have the #21 pick and your goal is to pick a player that will have an NBA career. Maybe he'll never be a starter, but he'll be in the league for ten years minimum. Who's your choice? Remember, your sole criterion of choice is the height of the floor not the height of the ceiling. (This is called "maximin" strategy.) I'm thinking Nolan Smith is probably up there. (He's a Jarrett Jack/Mario Chalmers type.)
I actually think Isaiah Thomas is going to do okay. He's taller than Nate Robinson and more of a PG, and Nate's been surprisingly hard to bounce out of the NBA.
The only guy (outside of the projected top 5) I've watched this year and said to myself, "that guy is going to be a solid contributor for years to come" is ... ummm ... Farried I guess. Everybody else I kind of liked went back to school.
Travis Leslie. If you can defend the perimeter in the association, you'll always have a roster spot somewhere (see: Udoka, Ime).
There isn't one. None of the guys available at 21 are even as good as Pendergraph and he was barely at an NBA level.
History will prove you wrong. Even the suckiest drafts have second rounders that make it. For example 2006 is widely regarded as one of the weakest in memory, but check this out: Code: 21. Phoenix Rajon Rondo 25. Cleveland Shannon Brown 26. LA Lakers Jordan Farmar 36. Minnesota Craig Smith 42. Cleveland Daniel Gibson 47. Utah Paul Milsap 49. Denver Leon Powe 50. Charlotte Ryan Hollins
I'm going to go with Jordan Williams as well. He can rebound like crazy, and as everybody knows That's The One Skill That Reliably Translates, plus he's lost a lot of weight even since college ended. That reminds me of Udonis Haslem. Plus his weak point was supposed to be shooting, but he's shooting great in That One Workout Video I Saw. (I would also add Tobias Harris, who has me thinking of Jared Dudley, but I don't think he'll be there at 21. That said, DraftExpress has him at 22...)
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NCAA rebounding leaders by year: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_NCAA_Division_I_men's_basketball_season_rebounding_leaders Faried is either the next Milsap or the next Rashad Jones-Jennings. It's a roll of the dice.
He's got a good motor thats for sure, but is really undersized. Is the next Reggie Evans or the next Rodman? I'm thinking Evans.
I think Faried is gone by 21, and plus a lot of you have brought him already so I leave him out here ,but I got quite a few guys I like as role players going forward. Norris Cole- PG who plays great D is rare nowadays and he has nice all around offensive skills. Jimmy Butler- Coaches love this guy. Smooth athlete that does a little bit of everything and just plays the game the right way. JuJuan Johnson- Better shooting, smarter, Hakim Warrick which will be good enough to carve out a long career.