Thinking ahead to next season

Discussion in 'Chicago Bulls' started by Denny Crane, Apr 29, 2012.

  1. Denny Crane

    Denny Crane It's not even loaded! Staff Member Administrator

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    I love my Bulls as any fan can, but I do try to be realistic and unbiased in my assessments of the team.

    Without Rose, we won .667 of our games. How good is that?

    Only Miami (.697), San Antonio (.758), OKC (.712) had better records than .667 in the entire NBA this past season. However, Indiana, Memphis, the Lakers, Atlanta, and the Clippers were also better than .600 teams.

    Of those teams, San Antonio and Indiana are teams with which I would compare the Bulls without Rose.

    San Antonio does have some seriously good players, but no Derek Rose caliber player. They seem to win because of their system, as the Bulls do. They do have players who look great on paper, but so do the Bulls. Is San Antonio a real threat to win the title, even though they have the 2nd best record in the league? I'm not convinced; OKC has more depth, more youth, playoff experience, and one of the best 3 players in the league right now.

    Indy is probably the team that I feel closest resembles the Bulls' talent level without Rose. Like the Bulls, they have a lot of quality young players and they're deep. They have a few seasoned vets to provide leadership (West, Granger roughly the same for them as Rip, Boozer for us). Is Indy a real championship contender? They might just get beat in the 1st round.

    So given that we may not have a realistic chance at a championship next season, what do we do?

    We could tank and hope for a lotto pick to pair with Rose when he comes back healthy after next season. We're maybe too good to accomplish this with the roster we have, so maybe we amnesty Boozer, let Deng miss the season with surgery, let Korver, Watson, and Brewer walk, play Rip limited minutes, and play Lucas and James at PG. Something like:

    Lucas, Rip at guard
    Noah, Asik at C
    Butler, Gibson at F

    Fill out the roster with guys on 1 year contracts, and we have a lotto pick and cap space to rebuild, along with Rose and Deng coming back from their surgeries. It's not a horrible scenario. Gibson and Butler would get a lot of minutes to develop even further.

    A couple of other things to consider are that we have Mirotic out there and the Bobcats' protected pick who could turn into a 13 or 14 pick in next year's draft. That pick is top 10 protected the following season, top 8 the season after, then unprotected in 2016. Both could be used in trade as well.

    Another option is to continue to try and contend for a championship without Rose next season. In this scenario, we keep Boozer, re-sign Watson and Brewer and Korver, or let some combination of the latter 3 walk so we can use their cap space and any exceptions we can to bring in the best player we can to fill some of Rose's role (# 1 option as scorer). Deng still needs surgery; maybe we can convince him to have it instead of playing international ball this summer.

    A last option I can think of is that we go for a home run. Suppose Deron Williams opts out of his contract this summer and we clear enough cap space to sign him. We'd in theory be able to put out a lineup of:

    Williams, Rip
    Noah, Asik
    Deng, Boozer, Taj

    Rip and Boozer are a year older, but basically the same team we have now, minus depth, and Williams a fine substitute for Rose.

    And what of the next season after Rose comes back? A backcourt with both Rose and Williams isn't a ridiculous thought, is it? Both can score at the "2" position, but we'd suffer some against teams with a quality tall guard. Williams is listed at 6'3", as is Rose; Wade who plays SG, is listed at 6'4". I can actually see Rose being a guard having a game like Wade vs. having a game like Kevin Johnson.

    Thoughts?
     
  2. truebluefan

    truebluefan Administrator Staff Member Administrator

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    That is right, Deng would not be ready to start the season next year anyway...wow.

    Williams would be great! Having two pt guards as starters has worked in the NBA before. I remember the Bucks, years ago had two pt guards that were their starting guards.

    What about Nash? He could come cheaper.
     
  3. Denny Crane

    Denny Crane It's not even loaded! Staff Member Administrator

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    Nash is an excellent stopgap, but he's really old, plays matador defense, and likely would want a longish contract. No?
     
  4. FatJerry

    FatJerry Member

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    Watson is our starting point guard next season and will break out iMO

    We're letting Omer go and getting his replacement in the draft and signing a interior defender / rebounder lke Reggie Evans

    Brewer is also gone and Butler takes his minutes

    Kirk is back here in Brewer's salary spot
     
  5. Denny Crane

    Denny Crane It's not even loaded! Staff Member Administrator

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    Kirk sucked when we first had him. He really sucks now.
     
  6. rosenthall

    rosenthall Well-Known Member

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    The absolute best case scenario is that we sign Nash to a two year MLE deal.

    That'd be a godsend. He plays matador defense....but he's Nash! He was an all-star and All-NBA this year, no?

    Play him and Rose in the same backcourt if he comes back soon enough. They're good enough to make it work.

    Our other 4 starters would all benefit greatly from playing with him, since they're all #2 guys who need someone else to set them up.

    In the event that doesn't happen, I'd consider letting CJ go and trying to upgrade.

    I have NOT looked at available FA PG's this offseason (god, what was the reason to?), but over the course of an entire season the inability of Watson and Lucas to get the team into the offense quickly will be a serious headache.

    I'd look for a Duhon-esque type player, although I have no idea who that person might be. Maybe he isn't there.

    The team without Rose is too good to tank without getting dismembered first.

    I don't like the idea of tanking because it'd basically mean taking a blow torch to our current arrangement.

    We have the potential to get a great sidekick to Rose, BUT:

    1). There's no guarantee the player we'd get would be worth the sacrifice
    2). The intangible side-effects of doing something like this would be god awful.

    Does Thibs stay on board?

    Do the remaining players become disgruntled with the organization and quit on the team?

    Does Derrick lose faith in management and start to want out?

    Do we become FA kryptonite?

    The latter are all serious possibilities. Not worth it, IMO.
     
  7. rosenthall

    rosenthall Well-Known Member

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    Hate to agree with this, but I do.

    Kirk's game has seriously gone down hill. Not sure if he's worth bringing back.
     
  8. FatJerry

    FatJerry Member

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    Which is why he will be cheap 15mpg player

    Better option than Mike James and Kirk would play , like JL3 , behind CJ ...as match ups dictate

    Omer and Brewer will go and we will go cheap until the full extent of Rose's recovery is known
     
  9. Denny Crane

    Denny Crane It's not even loaded! Staff Member Administrator

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    I really prefer Mike James.
     
  10. FatJerry

    FatJerry Member

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    Pax and Jerry may prefer Kirk
     
  11. Denny Crane

    Denny Crane It's not even loaded! Staff Member Administrator

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    Kirk is 32 years old and hasn't had a PER over 10 in two seasons. He last had a good season 8 years ago.

    How about Jamal Crawford instead? He's at least a 6th man of the year candidate.
     
  12. such sweet thunder

    such sweet thunder Member Staff Member Moderator

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    (1) There's a lot going on in this thread and I think you have to narrow down what is possible and what is not. Boozer is not going to be anesthetized (I know that's not the verb) next season because it would be financial suicide. And, you know, because he's a pretty damn good power forward. Maybe if the Bulls position and Boozer's game completely change there is chance that they would cut his contract on its final season, but not now. Let's take that off the table.

    (2) The Bulls are in no position to tank. They won .667% of their games without Rose and have the best front line core in the league. That guarantees you a playoff spot.

    (3) Steve Nash is not an option. If he wants to play for a ring he'll go to Miami. The end.

    (4) There is no realistic replacement for Omer. He's probably the third best defending center in the league.

    Best realistic case scenario is that Jerry antes up on Omer and brings everyone back, sans Brewer. The best unrealistic scenario is that Jerry brings everyone back. I want to see what this team can do. A high lottery pick isn't going to happen.
     
  13. kukoc4ever

    kukoc4ever Let's win a ring! Staff Member Moderator

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    Isn't this how old MJ was when he missed a season? Its not the end of the world. Disappointing though.

    Give Rose plenty of time to heal. He's still young and we'll still have a nice long window when he comes back when he's in his prime to title contend. Miami should be getting weaker at that point.

    We're not going to get a lotto pick with this roster sans Rose, I agree.

    Players come back from this injury nowadays, especially when it happens young. The Derrick I saw that was not playing at 110% speed almost had a very in control triple double on Saturday. That's AOK. The 6'3" one man show isn't going to work anyway. The core of this team going forward will be Rose, Thibs, Noah and Deng. Build around that and hopefully fill in the blanks. Another all-star would be awesome.

    Big setback. In my heart of hearts though, as much as I wanted it, the Heat and Thunder looked stronger to me. Still sucks to not have a perhaps title-run playoffs to look forward to. I know Uncle Jerry will still be looking for his season ticket playoff money at the end of round 1.
     
  14. Natebishop3

    Natebishop3 Don't tread on me!

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    If I were Nash, I'd go to Chicago. There simply aren't enough touches for Nash in Miami. He likes to have the ball in his hands and Wade/LeBron are too ball dominant for Nash to really be effective. If he were to go to Chicago, however, he'd step in for Rose on one of the best teams in the league. He probably wouldn't do a one year deal, which would be most ideal for Chicago, but even at two or three years he could play with Rose at times or you could move him next summer. I would think Chicago would be his best chance at winning a ring AND playing his kind of game.

    I don't think tanking is the way to go for you guys. You'd have to destroy the team to do it, and there's no guarantees that you're going to get anyone good in the process. Stay the course and try to find an adequate replacement until DRose can come back. Maybe he'll recover quicker and you can get him back in time for the playoffs next year.
     
  15. such sweet thunder

    such sweet thunder Member Staff Member Moderator

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    Maybe I spoke to strongly. If we are being completely honest, I think Nash has the best chance of sticking with Phoenix. Rings are great -- but a pool full of money is probably quite a bit better. It would be one thing if Deron Williams planned to resign with the Nets and the Mavs could offer Nash a max contract. Instead, the only teams left that have enough cap space to sign him to a full boat contract are really bad teams. Lebron and Wade both sacrificed some money to sign with Miami. But in the case of Nash, we're talking anywhere from a 5 to 10 million dollar per year difference in salary. That's a lot of Benjamins.
     
  16. rosenthall

    rosenthall Well-Known Member

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    I have no clue where Nash will end up, and it's probably a pipe dream that he'd end up here.

    I'd sign him to whatever length of contract he wanted. To replace the reigning MVP with someone who's almost as good would be a huge windfall.

    If he IS willing to play somewhere for the MLE I think we have as good a shot as anyone.

    Our 2-5 would do great with him, and we're a bette team than his other suitors. We also don't have any dickheads. The only reason he'd prefer us over Miami is the weather IMO.

    I could see him sticking with Phoenix. Or going back to Dallas to team up with Dirk. Or playing in NYC (doesn't everybody want to do that?).

    But for some reason I don't see him in Miami. He'd be an ornament there.
     
  17. such sweet thunder

    such sweet thunder Member Staff Member Moderator

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    I honestly think you may be projecting a bit in the way you describe Miami. Lebron and Wade seem like decent chaps and good teammates outside of that weirdness that surrounded the Announcement. They both play hard on D. And to the extent that they don't mesh particularly well on offense at times, it's because they have complementary skill sets. Miami is a players franchise, unlike Chicago, and Nash would be able to call his shots. I also think Nash is gloriously smart enough to make any touches issues disappear.

    I'm not even sure Derrick Rose would want Nash on the Bulls . . . we know how competitive Rose is about these things. Yeah . . . I just view Miami as a substantially better fit for Nash if he wants to pursue a ring.
     
  18. transplant

    transplant Global Moderator Staff Member Global Moderator

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    The Bulls' #1 operating assumption for next season is that Rose will recover well from his surgery and be their starting PG by January. This same assumption will be made by players like Nash which is why he won't come here. Under the circumstances, having someone like Watson on a team option is very fortunate.

    Overall, I don't think the Bulls will change their plan much, though I see a higher likelihood that they pick up Korver's option.
     
  19. Good Hope

    Good Hope Active Member

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    Ah. Reason, my old friend. Don't be such a killjoy. :-)

    I hate to agree with you. The only way it could work with Nash is to convince him that he'd have a productive and ring-full future both in place of Rose and alongside him. And I'm not sure that would work, though it might...Better Nash than D'Antoni, that's for sure.
     
  20. Denny Crane

    Denny Crane It's not even loaded! Staff Member Administrator

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    Maybe Nash isn't such a bad idea after all. It would really depend on the length of the contract he wants, and the amount, of course.

    Consider he might be good enough to give us full-time minutes at PG while Rose recovers. I'd be OK with Nash at his current level of play at PG for all of next season and playoffs if we bring back the current roster.

    The issue really becomes the season after, when Rose comes back as good as new. Or so you'd think.

    When we did have Kirk and Rose, the two did play together with Kirk playing PG for the most part. It wasn't awful, except for Kirk not being very good. Picture Nash and Rose together, and it may actually work.

    However, I do not see Nash and Rose as full-time back court anymore than Rose and Kirk were. But Nash is about the same age as Kidd and gets about the same MPG - ~30. So if we need to get Nash his 30, I could see something like 12 MPG when Rose rests, plus 18 MPG together.

    Nash is REALLY REALLY good still. Thibs is pretty good about putting combinations of players out there to suit the situations; I'm sure he'd use Nash appropriately. Plus the offense is really geared already toward Nash's style of play - multiple picks for the PG to operate - and Nash is the master of using those picks.

    I'm just sayin' it could work.

    And, we could put a lineup on the court of:
    Nash (38), James(37), Rip (34), Boozer(31), and Korver(31) at the same time!
     

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