Every other fan outlet is chatting away about this, so I'd hate for us to be left out of the loop. I don't follow the draft like I did in the past (it's much more fun when your team sucks). But after a few weeks of playing catch up I feel qualified to have some opinions about the overall field. Let this be a brief recap for people who haven't followed it very closely this year and a starting point of discussion. The Skinny: There's really only one way to describe this draft: it sucks. Especially at the top. There's no clear #1 guy, or 2, or 3, or 4. There's a chance no one from this class will ever see an all star game. When I look at the lottery I see wing players who are good but clearly lack star potential and big men who are talented but very unpolished. The kind of guys that won't play a productive NBA year until their second contract. The consensus #1 pick is a freshman center named Nerlens Noel. He's defensively talented, extremely raw, has a torn ACL and weighs 200 pounds. To me he looks just as much like Michael Olawokandi as Alonzo Mourning The Silver Lining: While this draft is extremely lacking in star talent, it's actually got a decent stack of role playing big men and off guards, two positions we'll probably address this offseason anyways. And the complete lack of consensus on anybody means there's a good chance we could have surprising options at #20, or trade up if we see someone we like. Rumour has it that half the teams in the lottery are considering trading out of it. So if the Bulls have a guy on their radar our TPE, rip's expiring and some cash might actually get us pretty far. So with that said, here are some guys the Bulls are probably considering with their pick. I'll start with the big men. Gorqui Dieng, 6'11 C, Senior, Louisville Dieng looks to be the consensus best fit amongst various bulls fan outlets. He's been the defensive anchor on one of the best teams in college basketball for four years, is well coached, has a great motor and tenacity, and looks like he could step in from day one and be a useful backup C. He probably doesn't have stardom in his future, but has a very high floor. He's lengthy, above average athletically, and has very good defensive instincts. He kind of strikes me as the Taj Gibson of centers. [video]http://youtu.be/gzyr-SZPMbg[/video] My Take: After reading about him I think the conventional wisdom on this guy is about right. He'd be a great pick at #20. He'll probably be gone by the time we pick, but most mocks consistently have him going late teens, and draft express has him being available when we pick, so the Bulls are within striking distance. Steven Adams Adams is a 19 year old New Zealander who has great size, mobility, and defensive potential. On offense he's raw as sushi, but finishes well at the rim. He's not an NBA player right now, but seems to have the potential to be Asik-like on defense but with a slightly more rounded offensive game. His stock has gone up as of late, so the Bulls will probably have to trade up if they really want him. [video]http://youtu.be/mmdpZD61dUw[/video] My Take: Adams looks to me like a guy who's going to need his rookie contract to find his niche in the NBA. He clearly has nice tools, but also clearly has a long way to go in just about all facets of the game. He also seems dumb as a post. I hope he does get picked before the Bulls' number is called, thus increasing the chances of a more useful player falling to us. Personally, when I watch this video I have a hard time seeing him playing under Thibs: [video]http://youtu.be/OnBC1pocAos[/video] Jeff Withey Withey is really wide, really tall, really long, and pretty darn slow. He's a five year guy who's very fundamentally sound and uses his big frame to play very effective positional defense. He's not a leaper, a slow twitch athlete, and most people think he's got a very low ceiling on offense. He's a "what you see is what you get" kind of guy. But he was arguably the best defensive player in the NCAA last year, works extremely hard, and is probably a little quicker off his feet than people give him credit for. Of all the big men people are talking about, Withey seems like the one with the highest chance of being available when we pick. [video]http://youtu.be/uM41rDsQ_7k[/video] My take: I won't complain if we get Withey. His game doesn't really leave a lot to the imagination, but he seems poised to have a Nazr Mohammed-like career. Getting a solid 15mpg backup center for 5 years at #20 in a shit-tastic draft is okay by me. However, if he's the only big-guy option that's left at 20 it presents an interesting choice. You can probably get a similar guy in FA for close to the league minimum, so the Bulls might be tempted to take a chance on a wing with more upside. Also of Note: Mason Plumlee - Accomplished four year PF/C out of Duke. Supposedly better than his brother Miles. Seems like Tyler Hansbrough, but 2' taller. Most likely gone when we pick, but will go somewhere between 10-20. Kelly Olynyk - 7 footer from Gonzaga that's offensively polished but lacks great athleticism. Think Spencer Hawes/Rik Smits/Brad Miller. Very coordinated, great touch, crappy length and rebounding ability. Almost certain to be gone when we pick, but probably available late lottery/mid-teens. Wing Men Tim Hardaway Jr. Son of the famous basketball player. Does not have the star potential of his father, but he's had a solid if unspectacular career at Michigan. A jack of all trades with high character but no stand out abilities. Probably there when we pick. [video]http://youtu.be/n33LX1H5IwQ[/video] Reggie Bullock A prototypical "3D" player. Can play good defense and hit a 3 point shot. Very good range, body, and fundamentals, but can not put the ball on the floor very well. Projected to go late 1st/early 2nd. [video]http://youtu.be/hYP6kMVsec0[/video] Ricky Ledo One of the more interesting players in this draft. Among the wings likely to be available at 20 he seems to have the most star potential. He has a checkered past and supposed attitude problems, but a sikkk handle and ridiculous range on his jump shot with a very quick release. He's 6'7 and very adept at creating his own shot. He reminds me of Jamal Crawford when he came out of school. Ledo's hard to predict. He could go anywhere from late lottery to 2nd round, depending on which teams like him. [video]http://youtu.be/nH8stctEEYQ[/video] Kantavious Caldwell-Pope In addition to having a great name, KCP has some of the best offensive potential of anyone available to go between 10-20. He has a great stroke, good but not great athleticism, and a very good game off the dribble. He's probably gone by the time we pick, but the Bulls have a punchers chance of getting him. [video]http://youtu.be/5uWJ-1QS4To[/video] Others Shane Larkin - A smallish point guard, but very athletic, well rounded, and great attitude. My sleeper pick as a Nate Robinson replacement. Allen Crabbe - A 3D guy with good fundamentals and shot, but limited ability to put the ball on the floor. Reminds me of Nick Young with a better head but less talent. Great stroke. Draft 'Em and Stash 'Em If the Bulls don't see anyone at all that they like, there's likely to be a few foreign players they can draft and hold overseas for a few years. Giannis Adetokunbo Youngest player in the draft. Remarkable size and length in a similar vein as Nicholas Batum. Has all the tools, but body needs lots of work and plays against weak competition. [video]http://youtu.be/Oaw0_zw9LGs[/video] Nemanja Nedovic - Athletically gifted big PG from Serbia who excels in the open court. Maybe a poor man's D. Wade. Sergey Kerasev - Sweet shooting russian with a very fluid game but limited explosiveness. Hopefully better than Viktor Khryapa. Dario Saric - 6'10 small forwards. Seems like a Gallinari/Mirotic type. Overall, I find myself hoping that one of Gorqui Dieng or Kentavious Caldwell-Pope is available when the Bulls pick. They both seem to have best mix of talent, attitude and fit where the bulls pick.
Ledo or KCP would be the kind of pick I'd like to see. Stashing a guy for 2014 or trading for a first next year is not a horrible move. 2014 seemed like the plan all along.
Thanks, Rosenthal...that's helpful. Between the fact that I don't watch much college hoops anymore and the Bulls not having a pick at the top of the draft, I haven't paid much attention. While all the experts believe that this is a crappy draft, that's the beauty of it...other than the rare "can't miss" draftee, which is absent in this draft, it's basically a crapshoot. Hell, this could end up being a pretty good draft. While I expect the Bulls' front office to go the ol' "best player available" route, an active big is always an attractive proposition. If you happen to hit with one late in the draft, it can save you some serious money (Taj Gibson's first 4 seasons cost the Bulls only $5.5mil...What a bargain!). I see that draftexpress.com has the Bulls taking your guy Dieng from Louisville. If you like him and the Bulls front office likes him, that's good enough for me.
Yeah, a draft like this makes our position a little more exciting than usual. Given this draft's lack of star power, the very deep draft next year, and a complete lack of consensus on who ought to go where, there's bound to be a lot of surprises. Most of the international players could go anywhere from 8-30. I think a raw international player could have extra value this year since the alternatives aren't very good and many teams (like Dallas) may like the idea of stashing someone away for a while. An interesting choice for the Bulls will be if Withey is the only big left when we pick. He's a safe bet to be okay, but that'll mean there are a few intriguing players to be had. If this is the case, then I hope we go with a wing. Withey is fine, but also the kind of guy you can get for the vet min. I think Bullock, Larkin, KCP, Ledo, or Giannis are better picks. The bigs at the top of the draft scare me. They all seem like Saer Sene/Ian Mahinmi types. Tantalizing, but likely to have a Tyson Chandler-like career path.
I think Chandler was always pretty good for us. You couldn't rely on him much on offense, but his stats were pretty steady throughout his career, even with us. We just didn't play him 30+ minutes so you could see he always was a double-double guy. He always played good defense for us and seemed to come up with a big block late in games when we needed a stop. He was available to play as much as Noah, if not more.
I'm a little jealous, Rosenthal. I think the draft is one of those things where the more time you invest, the more you get out of it -- especially in the upcoming years when you see how it all shakes out. I haven't had a chance to watch any college ball this year so I'm way behind the curve. I watched a bunch of Withey last year and he always looked to me like a 1980s-90s center in a 2010s game: just a too slow and not quite long enough with his shorter arms. Gorqui Dieng looked amazing in the Championship game. It'll be interesting to see where he falls. His measurements are ideal and with big men, a career can blossum in a heartbeat . . . I wouldn't be completely shocked if the game was a sign of things to come. I get a kick out of Rudy Gobert but still haven't had a chance to see him play. 7'2" with a 7'9" -- those are both records. You'd esentially be getting the longest player whose ever been measured and he doesn't look like a complete stiff.
Havent watched really any college hoops games (besides my Illini for the most part) but Ive been reading realGM a lot lately and I've really fallen in love wit Ledo's game. I want us to trade into the early 2nd or late 1st and grab him. With 20 Id like Dieng. Ive also heard really good things about Adams as well. But Dieng/Adams and Ledo are who I want.
Gorqui Dieng is who I want the Bulls to get. If he is not there, if we choose a Hardaway that would be fine as well. We do not need a pick with 'potential', we need someone that can play, especially as the season progresses.
Gobert kind of scares me. He's an anthropometric all-star with little on-court success. He seems like a Bismack Biyombo/Saer Sene kind of pick. He should stay in school. I think the Thomas Robinson affair has shown that high draft picks are no longer considered cheap labor and teams need to pay more attention to how much production they'll get from players while they're on their rookie contracts.
I don't know anything about the college players. ESPN mock draft 4.0 has Mason Plumlee as possible Bulls pick at 20.
[/QUOTE] I think a realistic best-case scenario for the Bulls is that one of Plumlee, Dieng, or KCP is available when the Bulls pick. They'd all fit in and are very good values for where the Bulls are drafting. In many ways I think this draft is structured favorably for the Bulls. The fuzziness at the top is making teams more likely to gamble on far off potential and leaving lots of dollar bills to be picked up off the ground towards the end of the first round. I haven't looked at recent draft histories, but I recall that about once every ten years there's a draft where the majority of the best players are taken after the 10th pick......maybe that'll end up describing this draft?
I think an interesting proposition for the Bulls is whether or not they ought to trade Deng to get Ben McLemore. Both the Cavs and Wizards could use a high quality SF, and to me the 2014 plan is either keeping Deng and trading Boozer for Mirotic, or losing Deng and having enough room to go at Kevin Love or other marquee player. The former doesn't sound like much of an improvement to me. I'm optimistic about Mirotic, but it's very possible he might not be more than a good rotational player, and may take a few years to get to the level that Boozer's at now. McLemore is just about everything we need at the position we need. He's a natural shooter, explosive, and has a knack for getting to the rim. Our quest to find that second shot creator/shooter would be over. And we wouldn't have to hide him on the other side of the court. And he'd be on a rookie contract and wouldn't jeopardize our 2014 cap money. I wonder if we could do something like: 1). TPE, Rip Hamilton for Dallas' #13, Vince Carter then 2). Deng, #13 for #3 and Ariza to the Wizards. Take Dieng/Plumlee at #20. Rose/Kirk McLemore/Carter Jimmer/Ariza Boozer/Taj Noah/Dieng for next year, with our FA booty intact for 2014.
And how McLemore when trading pick 3 and 13? Jimmer = Jimmy Butler? I'm would be open to do this. It is a risk, but you have to take some risks to have success.
Getting closer to the draft, it's maybe a better time to look at how players' positions are changing relative to one another. Two guys who've been mentioned as Bulls picks that now appear to be out of our range are Kentavious Caldwell Pope and Steven Adams. It seems like they're more likely to go top 10 than be available at 20. Hard to imagine teams picking 10-19 will all pass on either of them. Shane Larkin was my dark horse pick, but he also seems to be rising as well, and I can see why. Very athletic and well rounded. Likely to have an impact from day one. He'd fit in very well in the JLIII/NateRob role. The Bulls will probably have their pick of reliable "3D" wings at #20: Allen Crabbe, Tony Snell, Reggie Bullock, Tim Hardaway Jr., Jamaal Franklin, and Glen Rice Jr. They all seem like they'll be there for the pickings. Of this group I like Reggie Bullock the best. Extremely quick release on his jumpshot, NBA range, mature player, and IMO underrated upside. Not the ballhandler you'd want, but not the sucking chest wound people make it out to be. As far as big men go, Rudy Gobert and Miles Plumlee seem to be slipping. Gobert seems like he could go anywhere from #7 to #30. All depends on how you peg his potential. I'm personally scared of him, but that's just from my tangential observations. Plumlee is a guy who seems like he would've definitely been out of our range up until a few weeks ago, but seems to be falling simply because other guys are moving up and he doesn't seem to have any NBA skill that really stands out. He's athletic and a good finisher, but has no jump shot and looks very awkward and overmatched when he goes into the post. He moves very well without the ball (a la Boozer), and seems to put the ball on the floor pretty well too. His NBA usefulness would be greatly improved if he had a reliable 15 ft. jump shot. He's fundamentally sound on defense but seems to lack the lateral quickness on switches and recoveries that are necessary for a big man to excel in Thibs' defensive schemes. Maybe a decent comparison would be someone like Kris Humphries but a little taller. Kelly Olynyk also seems to be slipping, mostly due to concerns about his defensive potential, or lack thereof. I can't say I disagree. He looks like a trainwreck. He's thin, weak, and gator armed. But oh-so smooth on offense. I think he needs to develop a 3 point shot and turn himself into a super stretch big to maximize his NBA potential. Can't see him making a living in the paint. He reminds me of Channing Frye. Withey and Dieng have basically stayed about the same. Ledo and the Euros still look like they're all over the map. Somewhere between #7 and the second round. Two guys that are dropping are Cody Zeller and Shabazz Muhammed, but it's hard to see either of them dropping all the way down to us. They were guys who projected to go top of the lottery at the beginning of the season, got pushed down to the back half of the lottery, and now look like they might slip out of it entirely....but all the way to us? Not likely. Shabazz seems like a weird guy, but worth taking at #20....but that still seems like a pipe dream at this point. But I guess this raises new questions..... If Adams and KCP are out of the question, how do you guys feel about Kelly Olynyk or Miles Plumlee? Which 3D guy makes you the most optimistic?
I wouldnt argue wit Dieng at 20 and trading up in the 2nd or late 1st to grab Ledo (who ive completely fallen in love with). However if we do go wing at 20 (Sheridan has KCP falling to us tho from what Ive heard I doubt it) then Id go with Muscala in the 2nd (heard good things about his game). I hear plumlee is a helluva athlete but doesnt bring anything special to separate him. heard Olynyk has really big bust potential if he doesnt pan out.
