This week and next- it's all about Damian Lillard. This week, it's Lillard on offense. Exactly how good has Lillard been? Well, if he continues this level of play he’s going to end the season averaging over 25 points and 7 assists. If he does that, he lands on a list that’s almost exclusively Hall of Famers (http://bkref.com/tiny/BVp6u ) While that’s all well and good it doesn’t quantify how he went from fringe all star to legitimate MVP candidate. Yes, candidate- not favorite. If you have anyone other than Steph Curry on your ballot you should have your voting privileges stripped for life. No making statements, no ridiculous off the wall votes. It’s Steph. That’s it. With that out of the way, you can make an argument that Lillard is on the rung below Curry with Kevin Durant, Lebron James, Russell Westbrook, Chris Paul, and Kawhi Leonard. Before you get worked up, realize that being mentioned in the same breath as James and Durant does not mean Lillard >/= Lebron or Durant. It simply means Lillard has elevated his game to such a level that he can be mentioned in the same sentence and you shouldn’t bat an eye. Not convinced, here’s more than a few reasons to help you change your mind. Lets first take a look at Lillard’s bread and butter, his masterpiece, his… you get it… the pick and roll. As you can see above, you cannot go under and you cannot go over. If you caught he’s now able to take defenders off the dribble all the way to the basket and finish effectively. Since his rookie year he’s managed to add something new to his game, which considering where he started when he came into the league- is pretty impressive. When he was drafted in 2012 he brought a control of the pick and roll not normally seen from a rookie- finishing in the top 15% of league in PPP. This year he’s angling for top 10%- no small feat considering he runs it more than jut about anyone else in the league. At .934 PPP he sits in the 88th percentile for the season, but if you look at what he’s done over the last 17 games he’s averaging 1.00 PPP in the pick and roll. This is akin to Lillard scoring on every other pick and roll if he shot nothing but 2-point shots. In case you were wondering… that’s good. Really good. What’s enabling Lillard to be even better in the pick and roll game than before? He’s literally better in every facet. Go under the pick? Though it hardly happens because he’s such a great shooter, At this point in Lillard’s career, if you’re going under picks against him you’re probably going to get benched – or traded. Speaking of which, hey there Jeff Green! Okay, it’s not ACTUALLY Green who goes under, it’s Mike Conley, but it’s Green who stares as if he’s the most recent graduate of the James Harden Defensive Academy. .. Speak of the devil and he shall appear! That’s the only thing that will be said about the Houston game at this point. But feel free to watch that over and over again with this in mind… Because Lillard has been so hot from outside lately, defenses are starting to pick him up earlier and closer to half court. This is a double edged sword as you can see here. Tony Snell gets aggressive out high and is forced to go over the pick by Mason Plumlee. This split second separation keeps Snell from being able to pressure Lillard from behind, who takes advantage by getting both Gasol and Snell off balance with a hesitation/in-and-out dribble, driving to the rim and ultimately finishing strong at the rim. Gasol made the mistake of showing too much of an angle and Lillard took it. It’s little things like this that have been responsible for his improved shooting inside of late- up to nearly 53% (FG%) on drives out of the pick and roll. Essentially it becomes a no win scenario -go over, go under, it doesn’t really matter he’s going to eat that up. What about when teams try to trap/blitz the pick and roll coverage? Early in the season Lillard was susceptible to bad decision making in certain instances. Here former Blazers Patty Mills and LaMarcus Aldridge blitz the pick and roll, forcing Lillard wider than he wants to go. This allows Boris Diaw to rotate over and get in position to protect the lane. Lillard already has his mind made up and doesn’t see that Ed Davis has sealed off Manu Ginobili on the weakside. Instead, it results in a contested attempt that uh… falls short. Fast forward a few weeks and you can see that Lillard has made a few adjustments. Granted, Kemba Walker and Frank Kaminsky are not elite level defenders- however the onus here is on Lillard to make the correct play/read. Saying he made the correct read here is a lot like calling saying the sky is blue. More “duh” than anything all that enlightening. However, there’s a few things to be taken in this instance. Lillard recognizes the trap early, adjusts with a crossover dribble splitting the defense, and attacks before the second big can get out front to crowd the lane and contest the shot. In fact, it’s probably best that Tyler Hansbrough not get in Lillard’s way in this particular case. If you’re talking efficiency in the NBA, you better be talking free throws. Want a sure fire way to up effectiveness and scoring? Get to the line. Before this ridiculous streak, spurt, growth, still not sure what to call it- he had a free throw rate of .276. That means he was getting a free throw for basically 1-out-of-4 shots. Since January 18th, he’s at .354. That might not seem big, but that’s over a 28% increase- also he’s now getting more than 1 free throw for every 3 shots he takes. If you remember from the CJ McCollum profile, while it’s important to make your free throws, it’s more important to generate free throws. Of course there’s a point of diminishing returns here, but the math is pretty simple- increased opportunity outweighs increased guarantees in the long run. In Lillard’s case it just doesn’t matter because he’s raised both his rate and his percentage. Over the same span of time he’s hitting nearly 88% of his free throws, and he’s made 45 straight. While not wholly responsible, this type of action has been instrumental in generating free throws for Lillard lately. Seemingly out of nowhere, Lillard has perfected Chris Paul’s stop and pop when a trailing defender is scrambling hard to recover after the screen. With the majority of Lillard’s pick and roll action originating in the “high” position- it makes sense that he would add this to his game. Defenders are now wary of chasing too hard over the top, affording Lillard the opportunity to; survey the defense a bit longer, get a shot off cleaner, get a head start turning the corner, and/or frees his sight line to make a cleaner pass. The final area to touch on here is Lillard’s improved transition game. While Dame came into the league with that finely tuned ability to run the pick and roll, the transition game has never really come natural to him. This year he’s in the bottom quarter of the NBA in terms of PPP in transition. He has 4 total leak outs on the season, out of 149 fast break opportunities. He’s almost exclusively the ball handler in the open court and he hasn’t always made the best decisions. After averaging .899 PPP on the season he’s managed to boost that up to 1.04 PPP. These kinds of points are invaluable as they’re often some of the highest percentage shots one could possibly receive in a game. Look no further than Russell Westbrook, who has 356 transition opportunities, and a 1.163 PPP. As earlier stated, Lillard currently sits at 149 and .899, so Westbrook gets out in the open court more than twice as often and finishes with more efficiency. It’s no secret that Westbrook is devastating on the break, if Lillard were able to elevate just a bit more- now you’re looking at Lillard moving up into the truly elite scorers in the NBA. Thirty points per game is actually an achievable thing if he’s able to add this to his game as well. And why not? Every time you question the man he just comes back strong. Match that up with an increased free throw rate, better finishing inside, and an improved ability to diagnose defenses and the picture starts to get clearer on how Damian Lillard is upping his scoring and assisting averages. The final piece to the puzzle, defense. Next week- Damian Lillard, is he a good defender?
