Even if we lose, I still think we'll get it. I can't see Memphis getting more than 2 more wins and we have games against DEN, MIN, and SAC that we should win
Looking at the remaining schedules, I'm guessing: (5) Portland wins 3 more games (43-39) [head-to-head vs Mem, 2-2. Portland will have a better conference record.] (6) Memphis wins 2 more games (43-39) (7) Utah wins 5 more games (42-40) (8) Houston wins 4 more games (41-41) - (9) Dallas wins 3 more games (40-42) The only disadvantage of getting that 5th seed is that we'll be facing the GSW in the second round instead of the conference finals. I'm okay with that.
There would be nothing more satisfying than eliminating doc rivers, his bitch son, the coward center, the midget point guard, short bus blake, and that hipster barista jj redick from the playoffs.
I know this is getting way ahead of things; but I look at that as an advantage. We can score on the Warriors, as @KingAlbertoJrSpeed loves to point out. Can we slow them down defensively? Going to be tough but if they don't have Iggy thats really a game changer. Bogut and Ezeli have injuries too so theres a chance they could end up with a weak bench. We're a deep enough team to exploit it. The Warriors have periods where they have a lot of turnovers. Some teams have given them "trouble" when doubling Draymond. They can get overwhelmed on the boards. I don't see any way we can beat the Spurs, or even be competitive. Against them I think the battle would be to not get swept. They are so deep and disciplined. They won't have the blowout wins the Warriors are capable of but it will be a slow painful hopeless death. How fun would it be for LaMarcus to sweep us from the playoffs? Against the Warriors I could certainly seeing us pull out a few wins and make the series interesting. Highly unlikely we win a series against either but there's a slimmer of a couple percent of hope against Golden State. Don't even see a one percent chance against the Spurs. Losing to the Warriors would likely be a much more fun series as well.
Most Rockets fans want to miss the playoffs so they keep their draft pick and just end their misery. Their pick debt won't carryover to next year so keeping it is much more beneficial to them than us. Think I might prefer they back into the 8th seed, lose the pick, and then get swept.
How do you pick us only going 3-3 the rest of the way? Miami and OKC will both be on exhaustive back to backs if they even play their starters. Other teams we play are the Kings, Nuggets and Twolves. Only road games left are two quick flights. Yeah the Warriors will likely be a loss. I'd bet on 4-2; but think 5-1 may be just as if not more likely than 3-3. With the way Memphis is playing they could seriously lose out. So we could conceivably even clinch 5th with the OKC game and 7 days left in the season.
Losses to MIA, GSW, and OKC. I agree there are reasons we could win those, but I'm trying to be a bit on the safe side. I think MIA is the most winnable of those 3. I'm just happy and excited we are (most likely) headed to the playoffs!
Miami is playing in SAC tonight, and will be on the second night of a back to back in POR tomorrow, and will be on their 4th game in 6 nights. OKC will be in DEN the night before they play in POR and in their 3rd game in 4 nights. They also have locked up the 3 seed for the most part and have nothing to play for. Think we finally are getting some relief in the schedule after that brutal March. Just need to #tcb. I'd rest our guys for Sunday @ GS. No point in that game.
In addition to getting in their heads in advance of our eventual second round matchup. "Oh crap, we have to play these guys again? They've already beaten us twice!"
Blazers 40-36 (Updated) BOS - a must win to have a chance at #5. Payback due as well. (Win 116-109) MIA - opponent b2b 3in4 - should be a win against a tired, road weary MIA squad. @GS - b2b - Loss. GS going for a historical record with Portland on a b2b. I would almost got 'Pop' and rest the starters that game. @SAC 3in4 - Another 'must win' game even though POR struggles there. Possibly depends on who is in the lineup for SAC OKC - b2b 4in5 opponent b2b 3in4 - Have to win your home games. Both teams will be tired. MIN - Win...it's MIN DEN - Win...better be a win. That gives POR a 45-37 record but I'm not sure I see them going 6-1 down the stretch so with wiggle room, 44-38. Memphis 41-34 TOR - Loss. Raptors still chasing CLE. Glad this game isn't any later in the season when it might be a lost cause. @ORL - Magic out of the Playoffs so it's about how MEM plays. Should be a win. CHI - Battle of the injured lineups. Pick 'em game. @DAL - Loss. Mavs fighting for that last Playoff spot at home. GS - b2b - Loss. Warriors on their quest helps us when it hurt us a few days earlier. @LAC - Clippers likely in a 'no-win' scenario and may rest their starters. Pick 'em @GS - b2b Should be a loss but GS may have the record wrapped up by then and might sit starters against a hungry MEM team. ************************************************************************************************************* Tonight's TOR/MEM game is huge! The Raptors are trying to keep pace with the Cavs so this 'should' be a Memphis loss. If that happens, and it's down to a 1 game separation, I can't believe the Blazers can't at least tie them by the end of the season.
If we lose to Miami, we can still catch Memphis, but will Utah catch us for 5th? We need to win vs Miami and hopefully on the road against Sacramento.
Good point. We may soon stop looking at Memphis and start looking at some teams behind us. edit; Lucky for us we have tiebreaker with Utah so they need us to lose 3 even if they win out.
If Toronto defeats Memphis tonight in Memphis, then it's over. Blazers will be in the 5th spot at the end of the season.
Updated the original post; put some win probabilities in there from fivethirtyeight, times of games. Grizz, Rockets, Jazz all play tonight. ESPN gives us these chances "BPI has 48 percent chance of 5th, 38 percent chance of 6th, 10 percent chance of 7th and a 4 percent chance of 8th."