With 14 of the 15 roster spots accounted for this season, it's about time we look ahead to see how next year's roster might fit together. Being over the tax level this year, and most likely next year, the Blazers will only have a few options: - Match our restricted FAs - Bird rights to re-sign unrestricted FAs - Use our mid-level exception ('mini'-mid level if we're $6M over Tax level/Apron ~$5,291,918) x Use bi-annual exception (not available if we're $6M over Tax level/Apron) - add players on the rookie scale - sign min-salary players. - $12.9M player trade exception from Crabbe trade (cannot be used to sign players). Here's a look at our 2018-19 Salaries: Guaranteed: Dame, $27,977,689 CJ, $25,759,766 Turner, $17,868,852 Harkless, $10,837,079 Leonard, $10,595,506 Aminu, $6,957,105 Collins, $3,628,920 Swanigan, $1,740,000 Varejao (stretched), $1,984,005 Ezeli (stretched), $333,333 Nicholson (stretched), $2,844,430 Total Guaranteed: $110,526,685 (estimated CAP=$101,000,000) Qualifying Offers (restricted Free Agents): Vonleh, $4,749,591 Nurk, $4,140,964 (max salary approximately $23,673,679) Napier, $3,452,308 Connaughton, $1,839,228 Briscoe, $1,551,118 (contingent on making the 2017-18 roster) Non-Guaranteed: Layman, $1,544,951 Free-Agents (unrestricted): Davis (Blazers hold Bird rights - can go over the CAP to re-sign up to player max salary.) Morrow (If he makes the roster in 2017-18, Blazers will hold his Non-Bird exception allowing them to re-sign him up to 120% of his previous salary). Goodwin (If he makes the roster in 2017-18, Blazers will hold his Non-Bird exception allowing them to re-sign him up to 120% of his previous salary). 8 spots are guaranteed + 1 additional spot is a lock - Nurk. That leave 6 roster spots open. One will probably be used on our First round draft choice (Blazers currently do not have a 2nd round 2018 draft choice.). How will the 5 remaining roster spots be filled? Resign Davis? Offer QO to Vonleh? Will Nurk get the max? Keep in mind that if Nurk get the max, the Blazers will be approximately $42M over the CAP (filling out the roster with minimum salaries), and $21M over the Luxury tax level, resulting in a tax bill of approximately $50M. Wow! That would be unheard of. Will Paul Allen be willing to pay that bill to keep this core together?
Hard to predict the future when the GM is constantly looking for a consolidation trade. Here's my take: Core (won't be moved): Big 3, Collins, Swanigan Main Guys (will be moved in right deal): Harkless Aminu Napier Secondary Guys (Would be happy to move): Turner Vonleh Davis Throwins: Pat C. Layman Others (would be thrilled to move): Leonard If they can't make a trade... Lowball Davis, QO Vonleh, Sign Nurk for $20 mil. You didn't mention using our exception from the Crabbe trade, which will be around for a while.
Great point. The Blazers have that $12.9M trade exception that can be used to bring in salary without sending out salary. It's good for up to a year. I'll edit the main post to include that exception.
I know this might not be the sexiest of topics but I’ve been trying to find a way to either A. Get rid of enough salary to be able to sign a difference making SF or B. Use some of the players on our roster to trade for a difference making SF and I just don’t see how it could be done before the 2020 season without sending out a shit ton of first rd picks and losing almost all of our depth. What’s the answer here? This team is good as constructed but still probably AT LEAST one proven player at the 3 away from true contention, even with a promising Collins and Swanigan. Do we have to hope we can get lucky and/or move up in the draft? Does moving ET, Meyers, and Aminu clear enough space to be able to make a real offer to, say, KCP or Covington? Would that even be worth it? I’m finding it hard to see a way to obtain that missing piece given our salary situation going forward and the pieces we have to use in trades.
I like Crowder, but you’re saying that a starting 5 of Dame, C.J, Crowder, Swanigan/Collins, Nurk is a contender?
Probably. How would you compare Dame, C.J, Crowder, Swanigan/Collins, Nurk to Porter, Drexler, Kersey, Buck, Duck?
If our frontcourt fulfills its vast potential and we have the right bench, we could contend for a 2 seed.
Drexler was a top 5 player in the league and the rest of the roster was a much better fit around him then what we have with a Dame and C.J. led team. Just my opinion though. I see Crowder as a great 5th piece to a team with 4 legit all star level talents, not the 4th piece to a team with 2.5 all star level talents.
Unfortunately, at least at this point, Leonard is signed thru the 2019-20 season. What does Stotts think about that?
Hard to speculate that far out since you never know which GM covets the players we have. Also do not know PA's willingness to pay the tax on a mediocre team. Only thing I see that is almost assured is that Vonleh will not be here. With Swanigan in the mix, we cannot afford to give him much. Napier has been ok as a third PG but do not see us paying much for that roster spot. Also doubt project Pat lasts the rest of the year.
I'm not sure how the cap holds figure into the LT calculations. I think the salary data here are reputable: https://sports.yahoo.com/nba/teams/por/ We've been going under the assumption we're just ~$3.5M over the Tax, but Yahoo! says we're $21M over.
By my current calculations (2017/18) - Dame, $26,153,057 CJ, $23,962,573 Turner, $17,131,148 Harkless, $10,162,922 Leonard, $9,904,494 Aminu, $7,319,035 Collins, $3057,240 Swanigan, $1,465,920 Davis, $6,352,531 Vonleh, $3,505,233 Nurk, $2,947,305 Napier, $3,361,360 Pat, $1,471,382 Layman, $1,312,611 Varejao (stretched), $1,984,005 Ezeli (stretched), $333,333 Nichols (stretched), $2,844,430 Total = $122,268,579 CAP = $99,093,000 (The Blazers are approximately $23,175,579 over the CAP.) Tax Level = $119,266,000 (The Blazers are approximately $3,002,579 over the Tax Level.)