See how the team performs till february trade Deadline, if the Blazers are around 500. Dumping Aminu and cut Baldwin & Papa G to stay under the Tax to safe Paul Allens money again ? Could this be the Plan?
I think it is extremely unlikely that they cut Baldwin. But yes, assuming no further salary increasing moves, it would not be improbable for Olshey to make deadline deals to get under the tax if the team is underperforming at that point. I don't think it's "the plan", but I think it's a considered contingency.
I doubt this happens. I think it is more likely that the team uses the TPE or a trade to keep Dame happy.
No, because Baldwin would have to be cut by next Thursday and I don't see that happening. Also, Aminu is a starter not an end of the bench guy like Vonleh was last year. Honestly, I think attaching a pick to get rid of Leonard or stretching him accomplishes the same thing, even though I wouldn't do it. I do hope they get something for Aminu instead of him walking next summer.
At that point at the deadline we are not going to make the playoffs then I can see them trading Aminu for a draft pick from playoffs team.
If the Blazers were out of the playoffs at the trade deadline, it would be irresponsible of Olshey to not make a move to avoid luxury tax. The money implications would be secondary to avoiding being put into the repeater category sooner and suffering the loss of available exceptions to improve the team. But, no, as Platy said, it’s not the PLAN, it’s a contingency.
The problem is most playoff teams won't have $7 million to absorb Aminu's contract without giving us something back.
It's also important to note that being $8-$9 million over the tax line is different than being just $3 million over the tax line.
I believe cutting PapaG and stretching Meyers for 5 years (rough estimate of $10 million, stretch would be $2 million a year) saves you almost exactly the same amount as trading Aminu and cutting both PapaG and Baldwin. Stretching Turner saves us somewhere between $10-11 million this year but would be brutal the next 5 years having a $7+ million dead cap hit just from him.
If the plan is to dump Aminu. Then the plan is to be a lottery team. And thats not the plan. If Aminu gets traded, it will be for an upgrade, not salary dump.
Also important to note, in order to impact this season's salary obligation, the waive/stretch would have to occur prior to September 1st. If we're talking about a trade-deadline waiver, then no.
For precise figures, waiving Turner (prior to 9/1/18) reduces his cap charge from 17,868,852 to 7,295,082. Waiving Leonard reduces his charge from 10,595,506 to 4,376,404. In both cases, the figure for this year would be carried over (as @hoopsjock stated) for four more years as well.
Which is why this isn't going to happen this year. Leonard and a pick remains the most likely way to duck the tax but why give up a draft pick if we aren't a good team and if we are a good team I think Allen will just pay the tax.