Our ridiculous logjam at guard

Discussion in 'Portland Trail Blazers' started by Natebishop3, Jul 19, 2018.

  1. TBpup

    TBpup Writing Team

    Joined:
    Nov 15, 2013
    Messages:
    22,383
    Likes Received:
    34,032
    Trophy Points:
    113
    Occupation:
    Investment Management / Financial Planner
    Location:
    Lake Oswego
    James Butler.....come on down!

    I'd Love getting Butler and Kevin here....but MIN isn't giving up Butler and Gibson just for CJ.
     
  2. LayneStaley

    LayneStaley Well-Known Member

    Joined:
    Jan 24, 2018
    Messages:
    5,820
    Likes Received:
    6,242
    Trophy Points:
    113
    Occupation:
    Badass
    Location:
    Kirkland, WA
    Yet none have half the talent
     
  3. Wizard Mentor

    Wizard Mentor Wizard Mentor

    Joined:
    Oct 22, 2008
    Messages:
    13,851
    Likes Received:
    13,648
    Trophy Points:
    113
    Occupation:
    Master of Xen Foro
    Location:
    La Grande, OR
    I almost always love your posts, but you've gone off the rails here. Neil drafts for the future, and appropriately so, especially considering where he is drafting. So, it's more like

    Neil traded a mediocre center for a good center. (Good Job, Neil)
    Neil obtained a player for 2018-19 or 2019-20. Miraculously, that player was good enough to play in 2017-18. (Good Job, Neil)
    Neil obtained another player for 2019-20 or 2020-21. Player has shown good things in SL 2 years in a row (Good Job, Neil)
    One Year Later.
    Neil obtained a player for 2019-20 or 2020-21. Dude has shown that he is physically capable of playing right away if need be (Good Job, Neil)
    Neil obtained a player for 2020-21 or 2021-22. Dude has shown that he is definitely going to be worth the wait. (Good Job, Neil)

    Neil has problems, but not the ones you addressed.
    #WaitingForAnImpactPlayer
     
    BBert and e_blazer like this.
  4. BBert

    BBert Weasels Ripped My Flesh

    Joined:
    Sep 24, 2008
    Messages:
    26,326
    Likes Received:
    19,817
    Trophy Points:
    113
    Occupation:
    Selfless Public Servant
    Location:
    South Blazerlandia
    Meyers Baron Cohen to the rescue.
     
  5. Natebishop3

    Natebishop3 Don't tread on me!

    Joined:
    Sep 17, 2008
    Messages:
    90,255
    Likes Received:
    52,297
    Trophy Points:
    113
    Location:
    Portland, OR
    Okay. That could be an interesting exercise. Rank the players on our team from first to last in terms of talent.

    1. Dame
    2. CJ
    3. Nurk

    Those are the easy ones.

    4. Aminu
    5. Turner
    6. Harkless

    That's basically our starting five and our first guy off the bench.

    7. Collins
    8. Curry
    9. Baldwin
    10. Simons
    11. Layman
    12. Trent
    13. Meyers
    14. Swanigan
    15. Stauskas

    That's how I would rank them. I think Trent and Layman are very close in terms of talent as of right now. That might change. I gave Curry the edge over Baldwin and Simons because he has actually averaged nearly 13 ppg in his last season. So my issue is that after you get past the first 7 players, there's a big logjam of talented guards that need minutes.
     
    3RA1N1AC likes this.
  6. BrianFromWA

    BrianFromWA Editor in Chief Staff Member Editor in Chief

    Joined:
    Sep 9, 2008
    Messages:
    26,060
    Likes Received:
    9,014
    Trophy Points:
    113
    I think I see where you're going with this, but I guess I come at it from a slightly different perspective.

    A) I'm willing to give the benefit of the doubt that Simons and TrentJr were about as good as could be picked where they were. In other words, this isn't a Nolan Smith/Luke Babbitt reach.
    B) You use the dearth of "reliable centers" as a hit to roster creation, but I don't know that I trust Stauskas, Simons, Curry or Trent any more in a real live NBA game than I do Collins and Swanigan (and to a lesser extent, Leonard). Yes, there are bodies with potential, but Collins is by far the most potentialiest of those 7.
    C) I'm on the "we'll miss Ed" wagon as much as anyone, but your same minutes concern w/Dame and CJ (They'll play 72) can be also extended to Nurk/Collins. I think they play 60+ mpg, which doesn't leave a ton of room for SmallBall Aminu and Hark--much less Leonard.

    Personally, I think he's both stocking up on pure shooters and hedging against a CJ move or injury. But I think the very way we brought in many of the new guys (either on short contracts, or minimums that don't hurt us, or both) makes it so that, if Stauskas super-suxx, he goes the way of PapaG. If Simons spends Caleb Swanigan time in the G-League, that doesn't hurt us a ton. If Curry gets injured again we have options.

    I think the tight 9-man of Dame, CJ, Baldwin/Curry, Turner, Aminu, Hark, Collins, Nurk (with Layman and Leonard maybe getting run, and Trent and Simon if someone fails) is still pretty decent, and we're worried about Stauskas and Swanigan on deep bench duty...
     
    hoopsjock, Eastoff, BBert and 2 others like this.
  7. Scalma

    Scalma Well-Known Member

    Joined:
    May 18, 2014
    Messages:
    23,631
    Likes Received:
    34,978
    Trophy Points:
    113
    Let me have my bad day goddammit!!
     
    BBert and Wizard Mentor like this.
  8. oldmangrouch

    oldmangrouch persona non grata

    Joined:
    Sep 22, 2008
    Messages:
    12,402
    Likes Received:
    6,323
    Trophy Points:
    113
    On paper there is a log-jam. In reality, Stauskas is pretty much just a practice player, and Simons and Trent are too young to trust with major minutes. Our functional backcourt is Dame and CJ with Baldwin and Curry absorbing most of the remaining minutes. If we get the Curry from 2 years ago, that will work. If Curry isn't the same player he was before his injury, backcourt depth is actually a problem.

    Edit: Actually, I suspect Trent's future is at the 3 - but that is just a guess at this point.
     
    BBert and Wizard Mentor like this.
  9. James lamphear

    James lamphear Well-Known Member

    Joined:
    Jun 21, 2018
    Messages:
    7,860
    Likes Received:
    5,531
    Trophy Points:
    113
    That's our 2nd unit not the 1st unit. But also see Cj in that 2nd unit also like last year and use Curry and either Trent or Nik as he did Pat and Napier. You might see Baldwin in the mix also. But that's why you have a training camp to find out what Stotts rotation will be at the start of the season. This all speculation on my part.
     
  10. riverman

    riverman Writing Team

    Joined:
    Nov 15, 2013
    Messages:
    66,375
    Likes Received:
    64,528
    Trophy Points:
    113
    well then that pretty much sums up your take....I disagree...Chief is very, very talented as a 4 and an elite defender.
     
  11. Propagandist

    Propagandist Well-Known Member

    Joined:
    Sep 22, 2017
    Messages:
    3,875
    Likes Received:
    7,243
    Trophy Points:
    113
    For fuck's sake. Allow me to rephrase: what you're describing is the bench of a lottery team.
     
    LayneStaley likes this.
  12. BBert

    BBert Weasels Ripped My Flesh

    Joined:
    Sep 24, 2008
    Messages:
    26,326
    Likes Received:
    19,817
    Trophy Points:
    113
    Occupation:
    Selfless Public Servant
    Location:
    South Blazerlandia
    I was just today thinking that I kind of like our ridiculous log jam at guard. We are tooled up better at the guard spots, IMO, for this season than last season; and we drafted two players and kept another who may well continue our strong guard play for years to come. Granted our front court is somewhat worrisome. We'll have to see how things unfold. At the moment though, the NBA is a guards and wings league, so maybe it won't hurt us so bad.
     
    Wizard Mentor likes this.
  13. James lamphear

    James lamphear Well-Known Member

    Joined:
    Jun 21, 2018
    Messages:
    7,860
    Likes Received:
    5,531
    Trophy Points:
    113
    There you go.
     
    Propagandist likes this.
  14. Scalma

    Scalma Well-Known Member

    Joined:
    May 18, 2014
    Messages:
    23,631
    Likes Received:
    34,978
    Trophy Points:
    113
    I’m worried about our front court. If Nurk or Collins go down we’re done. We can’t add any more free agents. So we’re relying on a trade or one of Biggie/Meyers. Aka We’re fucked.
     
  15. riverman

    riverman Writing Team

    Joined:
    Nov 15, 2013
    Messages:
    66,375
    Likes Received:
    64,528
    Trophy Points:
    113
    speed and 3 pt shooting....we're going to run and gun this season...we actually have some fast break finishers and in Baldwin a guy who can throw an alley oop pass on a dime.
     
  16. Natebishop3

    Natebishop3 Don't tread on me!

    Joined:
    Sep 17, 2008
    Messages:
    90,255
    Likes Received:
    52,297
    Trophy Points:
    113
    Location:
    Portland, OR
    I see the frontcourt as a much bigger problem.

    http://www.82games.com/1718/1718POR2.HTM

    Aminu has a decent win% at power forward (58%) but he is a net negative PER when comparing him to his opponent.

    Harkless is a horrible power forward. His win% at power forward is 35% and an even worse -9.2 PER when he's playing the four.

    Layman actually plays his best ball at shooting guard (yay another guard!), but he's a net negative at all three positions that he saw time.

    Collins was a disaster last year.. and surprisingly he never saw time with Nurk (at least not according to this), but he was a massive net negative compared to his opponents. He played much better defense at power forward though. I still think that's his future position and it's concerning that the team isn't playing him with Nurk.

    Meyers is a center. Plain and simple. When they played him at power forward it was an unmitigated disaster. He put up a PER of 11.4 at power forward last season, and his opponents put up a PER of 48.4 at power forward, for a whopping -37 PER. He should never play that position again in his life. Conversely, his play at center was a wash.

    Swanigan's best position is center.... and that's unfortunate because he can't defend a chair. He put up a PER of 23.9 at center, but his opponent put up a PER of 42.6. That's no bueno.

    If you go strictly off these numbers then these are the positions that our players should be playing:

    Layman- shooting guard
    Aminu - small forward
    Harkless - small forward
    Collins - power forward
    Meyers - center
    Swanigan - center

    So if we could go out and get a decent power forward, like Love, we would be set.

    Dame/Baldwin
    CJ/Curry
    Aminu/Harkless
    Love/Collins
    Nurk/Leonard/Swanigan
     
    Orion Bailey and oldmangrouch like this.
  17. riverman

    riverman Writing Team

    Joined:
    Nov 15, 2013
    Messages:
    66,375
    Likes Received:
    64,528
    Trophy Points:
    113
  18. Natebishop3

    Natebishop3 Don't tread on me!

    Joined:
    Sep 17, 2008
    Messages:
    90,255
    Likes Received:
    52,297
    Trophy Points:
    113
    Location:
    Portland, OR
    It was a joke.
     
  19. Reep

    Reep Well-Known Member

    Joined:
    Sep 15, 2008
    Messages:
    5,529
    Likes Received:
    3,552
    Trophy Points:
    113
    Location:
    South Jordan, UT
    Love would be more exciting to me if we had a better defensive player at the 2. Having CJ and Love on the floor at the same time seems troublesome on defense.
     
    oldmangrouch and Natebishop3 like this.
  20. calvin natt

    calvin natt Confeve

    Joined:
    Jun 30, 2017
    Messages:
    7,520
    Likes Received:
    10,457
    Trophy Points:
    113
    Location:
    Portland Suburb
    i dont see a logjam anywhere. when I think logjam I think guys fighting for the same time on the court with similar talent. we have a bunch of average/bad NBA players who wont play much. Eliminate them from the equation. If we had Nurkic and a similar C on the team and a really good backup, that's a logjam. We have a clear top 5-6, then whoever comes in just needs to not be terrible. im depressed about next year.

    And really, if we are even thinking Layman is a significant player next year we are screwed anyway.
     

Share This Page