Game Thread GAME# 45: BLAZERS @ KINGS - JANUARY 14, 2019 - MONDAY, 7:00 PM, NBCSNW

Discussion in 'Portland Trail Blazers' started by Darkwebs, Jan 13, 2019.

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Which option would be better for the Blazers?

Poll closed Jan 20, 2019.
  1. Justin Jackson + Harry Giles

    26.2%
  2. Zach Collins

    73.8%
  1. THE HCP

    THE HCP NorthEastPortland'sFinest

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    I officially nominate this for Post of the Year.
     
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  2. PtldPlatypus

    PtldPlatypus Let's go Baby Blazers! Staff Member Global Moderator Moderator

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    Again, not talking about observation or analysis. Talking about experience. It's not a clinically replicable situation. It's not something you can understand unless you've experienced it, and it's not something you can predict or capture.
     
  3. wizenheimer

    wizenheimer Well-Known Member

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    bullshit. Flipping a coin is random. You won't change chances by practicing

    but the 10,oooth time you shoot a FT you'll be better than the 1st time
     
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  4. illmatic99

    illmatic99 formerly yuyuza1

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    Exactly. Muscle memory and hand eye coordination has a huge role in getting hot
     
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  5. e_blazer

    e_blazer Rip City Fan

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    Sounds good. Of course, the year is only 15 days old.
     
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  6. oldmangrouch

    oldmangrouch persona non grata

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    So, what are you contending?

    A) Players are 100% consistent and there is no fluctuation in game-to-game performance.
    B) You are arguing semantics.
     
  7. kjironman1

    kjironman1 Well-Known Member

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    It's all good. No need to look into anything.
     
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  8. PtldPlatypus

    PtldPlatypus Let's go Baby Blazers! Staff Member Global Moderator Moderator

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    I think his contention is that the probability of a player making a particular shot is not affected by the manner in which the player is playing at any given time. If (for example) Aminu has missed 5 consecutive 3's, he is not any less likely to make his next one than if he had made 5 straight.
     
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  9. kjironman1

    kjironman1 Well-Known Member

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    Much room for improvement then....
     
  10. kjironman1

    kjironman1 Well-Known Member

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    Have you read a game thread recently. C'mon... You can't be serious.
     
  11. oldmangrouch

    oldmangrouch persona non grata

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    That's an interesting abstract argument - but it leads to the conclusion that no player is better than another, since every player in the league is equally likely to make/miss their next shot. As others have said, shooting a basketball is not a random act.
     
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  12. wizenheimer

    wizenheimer Well-Known Member

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  13. blazerboy30

    blazerboy30 Well-Known Member

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    You're actually agreeing with me. The entire point is that you can't predict the next shot or series of shots based on the outcome of the previous set of shots. So going with the "hot hand" because they made some number of previous shots is a myth with no statistical backing.
     
  14. blazerboy30

    blazerboy30 Well-Known Member

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    That is absolutely NOT what this says.
     
  15. PtldPlatypus

    PtldPlatypus Let's go Baby Blazers! Staff Member Global Moderator Moderator

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    Your initial statement was that there is no such thing as "the hot hand". That is the statement with which I disagree.

    From simply a numbers perspective, making a shot or two has no bearing on the next shot. So if one attempts to define "the hot hand" as simply, "a guy who is at present shooting a higher percentage in that game, then yes, that definition will be fallacious. But from an experiential perspective, one can enter a physical/mental state during which probability of success increases. That immeasurable, unquantifiable state fits the "hot hand" description, but defies depiction in quantitative analysis.
     
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  16. blazerboy30

    blazerboy30 Well-Known Member

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    Those two statements are completely contradictory. How would anyone know they were in this mythical mental state, except for after the fact? That's called data mining.

    It's not quantifiable because the state doesn't exist. You can't just claim something is "unquantifiable" because it helps to align with your opinion.
     
  17. Chris Craig

    Chris Craig (Blazersland) I'm Your Huckleberry Staff Member Global Moderator Moderator

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    LMAO...does he really think he can take Nurkic?
     
  18. Strenuus

    Strenuus Global Moderator Staff Member Global Moderator

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    While I agree that getting hot or "you're due" is kind of misleading, technically "The zone" if it were to be researched, would have to be labeled as a construct.
     
  19. PtldPlatypus

    PtldPlatypus Let's go Baby Blazers! Staff Member Global Moderator Moderator

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    Again, you can't understand it because you haven't experienced it. You're speaking from an uninformed position. There's nothing I can say to convey to you what it is like, but you know it when you're in it.
     
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  20. GrandpaBlaze

    GrandpaBlaze Predictions Game Master

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    So what you are saying is that CJ going 1-14 on 3’s during a game while Dame is 7-8 from 3, you don’t think it makes any difference in which of them takes the final “clutch” shot?

    If hot hand means nothing, perhaps we should have Nurk take that final 3 as he is just as likely to make it as Dame as all shots are equal.

    At the end of the season does everyone also get a participation trophy rather than having a champion as, by extension, no team can get “hot” either so crowning a champion is random discrimination.

    Do you work for Stotts?
     
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