Game Thread GAME# 45: BLAZERS @ KINGS - JANUARY 14, 2019 - MONDAY, 7:00 PM, NBCSNW

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No, you don't understand the math, so you're just throwing out terms like "mental state" and "experience" and other garbage that is completely useless in any concrete sense.

If it can't be quantified, and isn't determined from previous outcomes, then how would Stotts know when somebody has a "hot hand"?

 

He doesnt know the difference between a white big and an Eastern European big.

 

Why didn't yall make this a meme? Yall failed.

 

From someone who played college ball, trust me. PTLDPlatypus is 100% correct.

 

I oFfIcIaLlY nOmInAtE tHiS...

 

No, it matters, but not for reasons the reasons you outlined (current game %) or last few shots. It depends on their expected, large sample size shooting percentages, how the defense is guarding them, etc, etc.

No, you're confusing expected probabilities and percentages with "hot hand". Dame has a higher percentage, given a large enough sample size, that the expectation is that he's more likely to make the shot than Nurk.

Again, you're missing the point and building a strawman from a false premise.

Nope. But I sure am glad Stotts pays attention to analytics instead of listening to fans throw out irrational, baseless claims.

 

So the opinion of somebody playing at a tiny college, barely above high school level, overrides math and statistics? Got it.

 

Could be someone who plays simply at the high school level. Maybe not even as high. When you're talking about a zone a player gets in that's not easily quantifiable, yes.

 

Yet the data and stats show that this "zone" doesn't exist.

You're confusing causation and correlation. You only feel like you're in a zone once you've made a few shots in a row. But that has no predictive power about the outcome of the next shots.

 

So confidence level has no impact on results at all?

 

Here's an example of "being in the zone" -- In my league, it's call your own fouls. Whenever there's some drama that legitimately pisses me off, it gets me in a bit of a zone. I almost always shoot a 3 right afterwards and hit 80-90% of them, even if I've been struggling all night. That's not "being in the zone once a few shots are made".

Shooting is as much a mental thing as it is physical. That's basketball in general. "The zone" is a mental state where you're essentially locked it. When I'm in the zone, I don't even feel anything when I shoot, and almost everything goes in. It's almost a feeling of lightheadedness (in a good way) or euphoria, and sometimes I enter it without even taking a shot. It's actually been proven by science but I read the piece a couple years ago and can't remember what it was.

It's essentially, a state of hyperfocus.

 

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Flow_(psychology)

 

That is what the research shows. Feel free to read the research paper I linked earlier.

 

Humans are notoriously bad about claiming they see patterns that don't exist.

 

In my senior year in high school, we were playing against our rivals who I hated. There were many kids there that would (essentially) bully me in 6th grade, when I was an awkward, uncoordinated kid. I switched schools in 6th grade, and that's the last they heard or saw of me until then, but they remembered me. Probably surprised I ended up playing varsity basketball. During dead balls, I would go stand in front of their student section on purpose and they were lighting me up. It'd make me remember of the fucked up things they did in the past, and it'd get me pissed, but now I had a sense of control on the court. I could make them pay, essentially.

I had 17 points in 18 minutes on 5-6 or something like that and hit a three to start the 2nd half. Started feeling really confident and almost cocky. Hit the next three after that. At that point, I KNEW that whatever 3pt shot I got, I was going to make. I knew it as well as I knew my own name. I knew it as well as I knew my own mother. I've never been in that much of a zone and state of mind before. I would've put my life on each 3pt shot I took after it. I knew I would make literally everything. The last 3 I made, it literally felt as easy as being over the rim and dunking it.

But as the "post" in the system, I didn't get another shot for 3 minutes afterwards, and then I got subbed out because we were up 30-something. But trust me, it exists.

 

Haha. That's a cop out response.

 

Your random anectdotal stories don't prove anything other that you don't understand the underlying statistics.

 

You have no clue what you're talking about. You can't quantify a mental state. Making one three doesn't mean a player is in the zone, so your statistics are likely flawed based on previous makes when players aren't even "in the zone". I love how your trying to tell others that a mental state is false... A mental state that they've experienced, that's back by science, that you've never experienced.