yeah they can, but generally, it's jump off something or jump to conclusions. I do a lot of both whenever the in-laws come to town
now that the dust has settled a bit from the draft, a few things are clearer: one is that taking Little at 25 was a no-brainer. The reason he had been rated so highly was because of his athleticism and his showing in competition against other high school talent. The odds were stacked against Portland finding anybody who would help much next season or the season after. In fact, there's only about a 35% chance that a player taken at 25 will even average more than 10 total points+rebounds+assists http://www.82games.com/nbadraftpicks.htm Portland had an opportunity to swing for the fences and they took it. That's as good a use of #25 as any, and better that most but the reasons Little fell to 25 are legitimate. There are major questions about his shooting, and that's an NBA red flag for a perimeter player. He doesn't have good handles and he averaged twice as many turnovers as assists. He's a project and while that's always been acceptable and can work for a young big man, project wings fail a lot more than they succeed. The comparison to Gerald Wallace, in college, seems close. They were both bench players who averaged 9.8 points. Wallace averaged more rebounds, but he shot a lot worse from three and the FT line. But Wallace had an incredible motor and there are apparently some questions about Little's motor. I'm not really buying that and maybe it was just his situation at NC, but we just don't know at this point. The good news is that Little has a much higher ceiling than most players taken that late in the draft. The bad news is that as a hyper-athletic project wing, history suggests Little might be more likely to end up like a poor man's Jerome Kersey than a Gerald Wallace.
This is probably all completely fair. Unmentioned, however, is the culture and context into which a lot of those project wings entered the league. It's not hard to predict that many/most of them came into situations worse than ours in terms of room to develop, grow and learn. As much as we all hate on ET, Moe and Aminu, those guys are all big parts of the team culture and (assuming they're around this next season) will be influential in both helping Little along as well as buying him time to learn the ropes before the pressure is on. Also unmentioned is the situation he was in in college. I genuinely think he was misused at UNC and as a result, somewhat hidden (as a prospect). I've seen quite a few scouting reports of Little projecting him to be somewhat of a role player if/when he develops, but in watching his HS film, watching him shut down Zion, be the McD's MVP... he's got alpha qualities and is more of a baller than a guy that you'd kind of just fit into your system... I'm not saying he's the next Kawhi Leonard or Vince Carter, but I see a guy with a lot of qualities that can go out and get buckets and make stops on defense. Someone gave a Derozan comp and I like that a lot.
Maybe this is nitpicking but a low/negative assist to turnover ratio doesn't mean he can't have good handles. In videos I've seen outside of UNC games he appears to have rather nice handles.
Certainly time will tell, but two areas I would dispute. First, from the video I have seen, Little has no worse handles than anyone on the team not named Dame, CJ or ET (on a good day). He looked very comfortable with the ball in his hands when he was playing as a wing (as compared to his minutes at UNC where he only handled the ball on steal-dunks). Second, I loved Kersey, but he had to work for years on his shot to get it to be respectable in games. Little has a nice looking shot and whenever I saw him play as a wing (not PF) then he seemed very comfortable shooting. I know his UNC numbers were less than optimal, but I don't think that puts him at or below Kersey or Wallace as a shooter. Where I do have concerns is how long it will take "for the game to slow down" for him. Sounds like it took Ant one year. I would argue the same for Collins. Longer for Layman and Trent (?). His ability to be in the right places in the Blazers offense and defense will be his biggest challenges.
I'm a coach. I have a player who takes plays off sometimes. Sometimes he GOES HARD. I talk with him all the time (he's like my nephew) about staying engaged and not quitting on plays. I question his motor because sometimes he's giving all of his effort and other times he seems disinterested or disengaged.
The guy is a piano player and has excelled in school! To me that shows commitment, drive, creativity and balance. He reminds me of Gerald Wallace some?
Here's my rundown on Little. Strength and length stands out. Fluid pull up with good elevation. Very left handed and predictable off the bounce and struggles with his handle in traffic. Not a great one foot leaper, but pretty explosive off two. Combines that with his strength and length to make an impact on the boards when he's aggressive. Should be a good finisher on cuts to the basket and in transition. Still really learning to play on both ends. Game looked too fast for him on both ends for much of last year. Don't love him as a prospect. IQ, Team defense, passing, shooting are all question marks. Dampens his role player potential so you are really betting on his tools and his shot making developing to the level that he can be a relatively efficient scorer on solid usage. And while I'm down on his overall defense, he does have the potential to be somewhat versatile as an on-ball guy. Doesn't move that well laterally and can be a bit of a turnstile at times (gets out of his stance, gambles for steals), but if he can get into optimal shape and regain some of the fluidity I saw in HS, he should have a chance to guard 2-4 with some effectiveness. Shorter / longer Wilson Chandler is the comparison I made early in the season and I'm sticking with it. Plays with a bit more passion than Wilson and obviously was more highly recruited so he may have more upside, but I'm not really sure. Has a sliver of star scorer upside if he becomes as truly great tough shot maker, but in likelihood, I think he tops out as a rotation level / avg. starter type player. Think it takes him a while to get there to. Rooting for him though.
the culture is important of course, but it isn't going to overcome a player's limitations. Meyers has been around the culture for 7 years and he's still a minor role player averaging 15 minutes and collecting DNP-CD's on a healthy roster. I did mention that in terms of the criticisms of his motor maybe I should clarify: I don't think of handles as just dribbling...that's only one part of ball-handling. There needs to be dribbling with purpose and a big part of that is dribbling with court vision and making passes and decisions off that vision. Dame, CJ, and even ET have shown that ability. And off of last year's team I'd say Hood, Curry, Stauskas & Simons all showed things we haven't seen from Little yet. For all we know, Little may have handles comparable to Aminu, which is a pretty low bar. I think he'll be better than that, but there's no certainty. And for damn sure, having decent handles in transition may be a relatively unused skill on a Stotts team yeah, but I wasn't talking about just shooting; I was talking overall game....scoring, passing, rebounding, defense
Man, are you just salty about Grant Williams going at 22? Just kidding JDC! I don't know about you but I'd take a prime Wilson Chandler with a late 1st round pick and be very happy with it. Little has a bit more bounce than Chandler did but it's not a bad comparison. He was playing with a PG that went #7 overall and behind a forward that went #11 overall (still think that pick was really insane). Almost all the negatives you mentioned are correctable if a player puts in the work to become great so despite how negative your post seems it is actually quite encouraging.
Then shouldn’t you be working? I thought you didn’t like me and my posts anyway. Why reply to me? Go sell something.
