2019 Offseason Storylines 1: Mario Hezonja

Discussion in 'Portland Trail Blazers' started by Wizard Mentor, Jul 15, 2019.

  1. BonesJones

    BonesJones https://www.youtube.com/c/blazersuprise

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    Jake pl layed great with Nurkic. Jakes good at moving off the ball. Looked good moving off ball with Simons in the final game. Obviously you need someone thats able to deliver a pass.

    Pat Connaughton was great last year
     
  2. BonesJones

    BonesJones https://www.youtube.com/c/blazersuprise

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    Shots he got because of how well he ran the floor and moved off the ball.

    Thats a 10% difference too.

    Also is a product of him not forcing shots he should shoot, which is a problem with Hezonja.
     
  3. TorturedBlazerFan

    TorturedBlazerFan Well-Known Member

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    One thing I want us as Blazer fans to remember is Dame is a good passer but not a great one and CJ is really not a passer at all when he plays with Dame, we tend to think guys will come here and get a ton of wide open shots and that hasnt really been the case, the offense still more often than not boils down to CJ and Dame being incredible.
     
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  4. BonesJones

    BonesJones https://www.youtube.com/c/blazersuprise

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    Mario had more volume, due to his opportunity and because he had the ball in his hands more because he didnt have great players around him. That volume doesnt equate to productive and winning basketball. You can call it Andrew Wiggins syndrome.

    Thats also why advanced metrics (which arent skewed due to playing on a good or bad team like you stated) is a better gauge for player production than volume stats, because theyre able to reflect how a players contributions actually affected the team and can be used to compare players because it takes care of differentiating variables that could otherwise skew volume-based stats.

    Also, I dont need to make that argument for Jake because Jake was actually better. But of course you saw that but couldnt see any parallels with your argument.
     
  5. BonesJones

    BonesJones https://www.youtube.com/c/blazersuprise

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    We essentially got Harkless without the defense, and fans are excited... haha.
     
  6. Scalma

    Scalma Well-Known Member

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    Layman’s percentages last season. We’ll ignore the previous two seasons since he barely played

    Catch and shoot inside the arc: 30% (36% frequency)

    Catch and shoot outside the arc: 29% (35% frequency)

    Pull ups inside the arc: 41% (15.8% frequency)

    Pull ups outside the arc: 45% (7% frequency)

    And that was on a team with Dame/CJ, you know, proper spacing. We’ll see how Hezonja does in a similar environment.
     
  7. twobullz

    twobullz Well-Known Member

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    Well Harkless is better then Jake, so you are saying Mario is Harkless without the defense, which is still better then Jake who has no defense. So it is a upgrade for the Blazers, since he replaced Jake.
     
  8. BonesJones

    BonesJones https://www.youtube.com/c/blazersuprise

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    Harkless without the defense most definitely isnt...
     
  9. TorturedBlazerFan

    TorturedBlazerFan Well-Known Member

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    I think best case scenario is that the new additions make Dame and CJ’s job easier. Which is valuable. Its going to be a fascinating year.
     
  10. James lamphear

    James lamphear Well-Known Member

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    It really doesn't matter Jake great hustle and some pretty good game he kind of left the rotation in the 2nd half of the season and out in the playoffs. But Aminu started get his minutes shorten in the playoffs too. Now we shouldn't be dogging Hezonja before he even play for us. So I will root for him being successful for us.
     
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  11. wizenheimer

    wizenheimer Well-Known Member

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    so, what I'm seeing...there's a debate about who is better, Layman or Hezonja...and it's a question that has arguments on both sides

    thing is, Jake wasn't very good. He had a streak of good games but then he was scouted and teams started taking away his back cuts and stopped leaving him wide open on perimeter shots and the star-Jake regressed to the scrub-Jake again. Back to his norms. And Hezonja may or may not be a little better

    I really have to wonder why people are advocating so hard for Hezonja. Have they seen more then a very few games of his? Are they operating from homer-faith? Is it because if he's not pretty good the Blazers have a hole in the roster, and that won't do?

    I'm reserving judgement but I sure as hell am not going to take Olshey's word he's "prodigiously" talented. He said the same kind of stuff about TRob. And he assured us all how well Stauskas was going to fit. Maybe Hezonja will become Portland's Boris Diaw. Or maybe he'll be a poor man's Josh McRoberts. But at least we might agree that a lot of optimism about Hezonja isn't based on much other than hope
     
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  12. BBert

    BBert Weasels Ripped My Flesh

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    If you listened to Olshey rave and spin, you'd believe Nas is so good he's going to contribute on a contender his rookie year. Reality is Little couldn't contribute on a G-league team his rookie year.

    I don't have anything against how Olshey does his job or his decision making. Nobody bats 100 percent. But I am to the point that I can't fucking stand watching him speak or listening to his schpeel.
     
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  13. mook

    mook The 2018-19 season was the best I've seen

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    The track record of shooters leaving the Blazers and lighting it up on other teams from 3 is not good.

    I just ran the numbers:
    upload_2019-7-16_12-50-49.png

    Layman may buck the trend, but I doubt it.

    I was surprised to see even Connaughton fell off some, even with all the space Giannis creates. I wonder if it's just a confidence thing. If you watch Dame make these crazy-ass three point shots, ho-hum wide open threes may not seem like such a big deal?

    (Gerald Henderson's didn't change at all, so I left him out. But he was out of the league a year after leaving us. Probably regrets not re-signing here, given how well he did on the Blazers.)

    Bringing it back on-topic, in looking at what we can expect out of out of Hezonja, it's useful to look to see if there's a 3 pointer Blazers Bump for other players. I ran it for these guys:
    upload_2019-7-16_13-1-48.png

    (Hood is interesting, but you have to remember it's a small sample size. He only played 27 regular season games for us.)

    Anyway, it's pretty clear that if you are a betting man you'd do well to gamble that Mario improves and Jake declines, at least for the first season. Especially when you factor in Layman is going to the Twolves, playing off Andrew Wiggins instead of Dame/CJ.
     
    Last edited: Jul 16, 2019
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  14. mook

    mook The 2018-19 season was the best I've seen

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    I've watched Harkless play 250 games, and I gotta say I've never seen him put up highlights like Hezonja did in his final 3 games in NYC.

    I think there's also clearly a difference in their passing ability. Harkless's career high in assists is 4. Hezonia's is 11. Given that Hark is in his 7th season and Hezonia is in his 4th, I think that's pretty significant.

    It'll be really interesting to bump this thread in 6 months and see if opinions have changed.
     
  15. TBpup

    TBpup Writing Team

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    Just curious how Hood at 36% to 35% is a change of -2%. Same with Curry going from 43% to 45% being a positive 3%. That new math my taxes are paying for.....a bit fuzzy. :cheers:
     
  16. Pinwheel1

    Pinwheel1 Well-Known Member

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    This debate is good one and will most certainly be bumped at some point. Jake and Hark had their moments at different things. But what I see from Mario, in those limited highlights, is a better all around player than either. A higher BBIQ. He looks to be more versatile.

    Granted I tend to fall in love with players who can do a little of everything because they tend to compliment their teammates more. No matter which ones are on the floor. Not sure if he is really 240 but if he is close to that he gives us so many more options. I am not sure Mario is great at anything but regardless of his stats, the eye ball test tells me that for a forward he is a decent passer, dribbler, 3 point shooter, mid range shooter off the dribble, can attack the basket, can rebound, and has a good vertical lift and aerial agility for his size.

    Again I am not sure he will be be great at any of those skills but the combination of all those things makes me think he will help this team more than Hark and Jake (Whom I both liked)

    The one important thing I think we lose was Hark's ability to guard athletic SGs (when he was healthy enough to stay on the floor) But with Baze and Hood I think we are fine there. It will be interesting to see what Mario weights in at. Maybe we should be comparing him to Aminu instead.
     
  17. illmatic99

    illmatic99 formerly yuyuza1

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    Excel rounding numbers cuz he had it not showing decimals probably.
     
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  18. SIeepwalker

    SIeepwalker The lone sane poster

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    because they round up the numbers.
    Seth shot 42.5% in Dallas which is rounded to 43, and 45% in Portland.
    That's a difference of 2.5% which is rounded to 3

    Hood went from 36.2% (36) to 34.5% (35) for a difference of 1.7% (2)
     
  19. TorturedBlazerFan

    TorturedBlazerFan Well-Known Member

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    My guess it was like a 43.1 and a 45.8 and so he rounded. :)
     
  20. SIeepwalker

    SIeepwalker The lone sane poster

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    By the time you guessed I had time to look up the actual numbers for both players rook !

    (Also 45.8 would be rounded to 46 so it's not even a good exemple)
     
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