Don't block me for saying this like @Natebishop3 did, but if we look back at the last couple off seasons the exact same comments are made over and over again.
If Nurk was healthy, I'd take the over. No Nurk (sorry Whitehead) and I take the under without hesitation. I really think some of you underestimate Nurk's value.
In either of the prior two seasons, did we have a major player out for months with a broken limb, or turnover of 40% of the roster? My biggest concerns are unique since 2015.
The Nurk injury is concerning for sure, but they did play much better than expected after he went down. That was without a true defensive force in the middle. It definitely sucks but hopefully not a killer. I don't believe the 40% roster turnover is that big of a deal. As long as we have Dame and CJ with good players around them I think we'll be just fine.
Me too. I think 47 wins in this conference equates to "just fine". What I don't buy into is people's prognostications of 55+ and another top 3 seed.
I’ll say between 50-54; but I predict that 95% of the 82 games will be ‘competitive’ as in they will at least be close! 55+ not outside the realm of possibilities!
I think we'll be fine in the regular season when teams can't exploit our glaring weaknesses. Whiteside is a viable Nurk replacement on defense, and I'm buying into the Simons hype a bit in thinking that he'll at least replace Curry's impact. And Hood becoming mainstay SF should bode well for his confidence-- he seems like a rhythm player who plays well when he knows where his minutes/shots will come. Our depth should be fine this year if we're healthy. And one thing that doesn't get mentioned is CJ's 3pt shooting. Last year, he dropped nearly 5% from where he was in 16-17. His TS% was around what he's been for his career mostly because he attempted one more shot from outside, but there was a very obvious dip in efficiency. I think it's fair to expect him to bounce back up with better shot selection. He seemed to round back into form in the playoffs. In order to 50+ games, we need to win 3 of 4 at home, and go .500 on the road. It's not THAT hard. There are some serious gimme games against the east this year. And I think we can take advantage of teams finding a footing like LAC/LAL/HOU/GS/UTA all of whom had turnover to their big usage positions.
For the record, I'm not saying you're wrong. I'm just not going to doubt a team with Damian Lillard on it after what I've seen the last two years.
But what was the basis therefor? Last year, there wasn't anything that occurred in the off season to cause any reason to legitimately think the team would be any worse than the year before. That can not be said this year. The last time we had this drastic of a change in personnel, the team ended up 10 games worse than the prior season, and that was only because CJ was the league's MIP. I'd be absolutely shocked if this squad won 53+ again this season, and I'd be willing to put something on it.
really not buying this change of personnel narrative. The guys we lost were low impact, low usage players (both aminu and harkless were ranked as our lowest on the roster last year). And Turner was surprisingly low at only 16% last year, tied with Jake Layman of all people. We still have Dame/CJ. Nurk will obviously be the big missing piece but Whiteside should be fine in a pinch. Essentially, we have to incorporate ONE new guy of significance. it's not nearly as drastic as you're making it out to be. Even Terry said he was going to look back to using Hassan like he did Rolo, which should make the transition very smooth. hard to quantify this defensively obviously, but we've been an average defensive team for the most part during Terry's tenure. I doubt the chemistry will make much of a difference on that end. If anything, it should improve just going from Kanter in the playoffs to Hassan now.
You're equating losing Aminu, Harkless, Turner, Kanter, Leonard, etc. to losing Aldridge, Matthews, Batum, Lopez, Afflalo, etc.???
And why does this change in personnel bother the Blazers so much more than the rest of the West? Pretty much everybody but the Nuggets and Jazz had major roster turnovers. Even the Jazz will be incorporating two new starters (Conley and Bogdanovic). The Rockets have most of their starters back, but they're adding Westbrook to the starting lineup. That get's extra points for potential explosion. There are only two players back from last year's Laker squad. Three, I think, from last year's Clippers team. Four for the Warriors (excluding Klay because of his injury).
2015: We replaced Rolo with Plumlee--lateral move We replaced Batum with Aminu--lateral move We replaced Aldridge('s scoring) with CJ's--unexpectedly lateral move We lost Wes, and really didn't replace what he provided with anything comparable. Crabbe, I guess. 2019: We replaced Nurk (injury) with Whiteside--lateral move (maybe? I see it as a downgrade, but who knows?) We replaced Meyers with Pau--negligible impact, 'cause it was Meyers We replaced Chief by promoting Collins--might be an improvement, who knows? We replaced Curry('s shooting) with Tolliver's--looks like a downgrade to me We replaced Turner with Hezonja--lateral move? We replaced Harkless with Bazemore--lateral move? There are a lot of question marks there, and we lose the roster continuity that has been our bread and butter for the last few years. Neither one of us is going to convince the other, and that's fine, but there's absolutely merit to my position.
Jazz are incorporating talent upgrades. Rockets are adding a talent upgrade (which admittedly could blow up) Lakers got clear top-end talent upgrades. Clippers got clear top-end talent upgrades. Warriors are the only team you mentioned that's in a similar boat to the Blazers, with significant turnover hoping just to balance out the roster losses.
The Blazers are incorporating experienced players. I'll give you that Conley is a seasoned pro who should fit seamlessly with the Jazz. Bogdanovic, less so. The Rockets trying to merge the talents of Westbrook and Harden is playing with nitroglycerine, as far as I'm concerned. The Lakers only added one clear top-end talent (one who gets injured a lot, I might add). The rest is a bunch of mismatched luggage. Same with the Clippers. Two clear top-end talents and a bunch of other guys who are going to have to figure out their roles and pecking order. Other than the Jazz, I'm not buying that merging the new talent is easier for any of those teams than what the Blazers will face with an established star duo as stable as Dame and CJ.
I'm not trying to convince you but I guarantee you didn't have those 2015 takes before the 2015-16 season started.
