Honest question for Stotts supporters

For sure. The perspective of someone who has an NBA coaching tree adds a bunch of value to the discussion. I'd love to know the coaching tree, but I respect if they want to keep that stuff secret.

I'm not sure the high level playing/coaching experience on this board is greater than that of the Blazers coaching staff, so if we're saying that more high level basketball experience means their theories are more valid, then we all should just trust the Blazers coaching staff. That would be BORING though and I don't want that!

 

Not the problem, Defense obviously is, but certainly a problem.

 

Well if Eric Griffith says ISO ball is not the problem, then it must not be the problem

 

my answer is probably a combination of 'it's complicated' and it's a 'chicken-and-egg' thing

start with a couple of disclaimers:
* I don't like Olshey, at all
* I really don't like the Dame/CJ pairing; I think they are way too redundant in style, size, tendencies, and bad defense

yeah, that's bias, but it is the lens I look thru when analyzing Portland

let's hop in the way-back machine and jump 4 1/2 years into the past. My disdain for Olshey wasn't as strong back then, but it was there. I hated the way he cheap-screwed together his first two Portland benches. They were historically bad, and he had options he chose not to pursue. I also hated that he made max offers to Roy Hibbert and Greg Monroe, and a max-MLE offer to Spenser Hawes. Ok, a GM can't be perfect, but still, those were poor moves in my view and at that time it was apparent what a weak pick Meyers was

anyway, it's 2015 and Matthews has ruptured his Achilles. Portland limps into the playoffs against Memphis. They get hammered 4-1 and their season ends in a whimper. Worse, is that Memphis sets the template for defending Dame and the Blazers by blanketing him with the defense of Tony Allen, Courtney Lee, and Conley and always having Gasol or Green hedging or trapping Dame at every screen. That template becomes Portland's biggest weakness. But there's a report from the Blazer locker room after the elimination game...I think it was either Quick or Haynes reporting, about how Olshey was really, really excited about how CJ had performed. How Olshey was chortling to Stotts in an "I told you so" fashion about CJ...this minutes after the season ended. If I'm recalling things wrong, let me know

fast forward a little to the off-season; Batum has been traded and Aldridge, Matthews, and Lopez all walk. Olshey has cleared the roster and one of the main things he's cleared is any competition CJ has for playing time. He is asked several times about the Blazers not having a backup PG and he keeps insisting that CJ can be a great backup PG.

and to this day, he's never added a decent backup PG, and my suspicion is he knows if Stotts had that option, he'd use it over CJ at times. For 4.4 seasons now, Dame has been the only PG on the roster, and I think that's always been a big weakness. And of course, the Dame-centric defensive template that Memphis set has killed Portland in the playoffs every damn year since, in no small part because Portland has nobody besides Dame who can consistently run an offense against strong defensive resistance. If an opponent can shut down Dame they take out Portland's best scorer and the only guy who runs the offense. That's always worth the effort

so when you ask if it's the coach, I think first that Stotts has not had good tools in his toolbox to adjust away from all the one-on-one possessions that CJ brings to the floor. But a tool he does have is he controls the offense and the schemes and the rotations, and he could have developed better off-ball action after more than 4 years than he has. And the thing is that while CJ is a very clever ball-handler, prone to over-dribbling, he's not efficient in one-on-one because he's terrible at getting to the foul line. His iso-ball is featured in the offense to the overall detriment of the offense....IMO, Stotts could easily throttle that back and implement more accountability for selfish play

so yeah, I blame Stotts for some of this. But I blame Olshey too. For instance, if Portland had a backup PG like Rondo (just an example), I don't believe we'd see all this one-on-one bullshit. But Rondo is an actual PG. Napier and Curry aren't, neither is Simons, and for damn sure, Turner, Hezonja, and Bazemore aren't. And of course, CJ isn't. But that's who Sotts has been stuck with

 

I have a hard limit on coaches who play shitty veterans over promising rookies on what amounts to a shitty team, so yeah, my opinion is pretty much that Stotts has turned to shit. As I have been boycotting I've been watching the boxscores and I have been waiting for Little to get real minutes. Little is producing nothing compared to what he was doing, but that steady diet of 11 minutes really seems to be helping him, right, Terry Shits?

 

top-10 offense? what is he basing this on? If it's offensive rating, Portland is tied for 10th with Phoenix so it seems like a bit questionable as a defense of the offense, so to speak. I'd also wonder what the impact of 2nd chance points has on offensive rating, Whiteside has been pretty good at that. In any event, if Portland is 10th in offensive rating which is simple points/100-possessions, they are also 16th in TS%, 20th in eFG%, 25th in FTr, 15th in FT/FGA, 18th in FG%, 25th in 2pfFG%, and 9th in 3ptFG%. So then, the notion that Portland has a top-10 in offense seems to need a little context. That may be more pace related, than efficiency related

certainly defense is a weak link in the equation, and it is half of the net rating where the Blazers are -1.4.

 

I played basketball but our coaches incorporated cross country running into our preseason workout so I at least had some gauge between the differences in sport. I was terrible at long distance training, yet in sprints I would lead the pack. There's such a gulf of difference in the rest chance rate that one can optimally whiz around the court for a lot of minutes, but this will not necessarily translate into optimal long distance exertion. For me, they were like opposites almost. I've cramped from playing basketball for hours, but there's just no way I could've completed a 10 k without collapsing and because I had this figured out already from my HS days I don't think I would've fallen into your trap.

 

Last 4 games have been games that we could have won and would have likely won last year. For whatever reason this team is struggling to bring it home and is in a rut. Hopefully the new year will help turn it around as we can't keep losing games we should win or can win.

 

This is SO good. I agree with a vast majority of what you say and how you broke it down. Because I'm often challenging theories of people who are saying Stotts is a bad coach you (and others) probably assume I think Stotts is a great coach... I don't. I think the problems we are experiencing involve much of what you listed above. Based off of some of the posts, some think Stotts is 100% of the problem. You obviously are not one of those people. If we had to guess what percentage of the problem Stotts is, you might have a slightly higher percentage than me, and you might be right!

Again, great stuff, appreciate it!

 

Because we can't get stops when we need too?

 

That's definitely an issue but I thought last night we had some good defense but there were some breakdowns at times.

 

This....this...this....so much this! To the point that, @wizenheimer , have you been sneaking over and reading my journal?

 

This can't possibly the best stuff from your journal, can it?

 

I nominate this for post of the year!

Agree 100%

 

You must have missed the entire 4th quarter. There were some major breakdowns more often than 'at times'.

In fact, we probably ought to phrase it as, 'there was decent defense at times'. The majority of the 4th was eye gouging bad

 

The first step would be fireolshey.com
But someone already has that one taken