So it's down to 7: Bernie, Bloomberg, Buttigieg, Biden, Warren, Amy, and Steyer. In rough order of my current handicapping (disclaimer: predictions are hard, especially about the future). I suppose Gabbard is still technically in it, but she's got less appeal than Tom Steyer, without any of his money. Who is the next to drop out? It won't be any of Bernie, Bloomberg, Buttigieg. They all have plenty of money and plenty of reason for optimism. It will be Steyer only if he decides he's tired of pissing away his money. It might be Amy if her fundraising momentum this week doesn't last and she finishes poorly in the next two. It could be Warren if she finishes 4th or 5th in both NV and SC. It will be Biden if he loses SC. barfo
Bernie has the best chance to beat Trump. Any other Democrat would have less excitement than Clinton. Who do you think has a better chance?
The "not-Bernie" nomination is a contested convention. And I think that's a real possibility right now. If I knew for a fact that one candidate would win an outright majority of delegates, I'd bet on Sanders. But I think the most likely possibility might be someone (like Sanders) getting only a plurality with no majority and it being wrangled at the convention. That said, if the winner of a contested convention isn't the person with the plurality, that's going to be problematic for the party.
Can not speak for others, like many try to do. But. I would vote for Amy over Trump. I would go to jail for voting 10 times for Trump over Bernie. I would rather go to jail to protect future generations rather than vote for Bernie's faulty plans. The only area Bermie beats Trump is, Bernie has better manners than Trump. After that Bernie is the bigger liar, and a clueless whimp.
I wasn't really asking anyone who they personally would vote for. Do you think Amy legitimately has a better chance to beat Trump? Regardless of whether you'd vote for Trump over Bernie, which, for the record, I think is ridiculous. I don't think most people who lean towards voting Democrat agree with that.
Especially if the one with the plurality is Bernie. Or less likely, Joe or Liz. Pete or Amy, you can somewhat imagine them taking one for the team with the expectation of being next in line. Can't expect the 80 year olds to do that. And the fans of one particular candidate would go absolutely apeshit. Which might be sort of fun to watch, but would probably be a big distraction. barfo
I don't think it is as simple as nominating a moderate, or a liberal, or the person with the most rabid fanbase, or the person with the most qualifications on paper, or from a particular region, or a particular race, or... barfo
Bernie has been significantly beating Trump in the polls since 2016. You need an enthusiastic electorate.
DNC chair Tom Perez said if a candidate has a clear plurality he/ she will be nominated at the convention. Is someone has say 40 percent and next person 25, that would be clear plurality. Problem would be if two or three each have around 30. But only two small states have voted. See what happens after Super Tuesday.
Bernie is already worried about Bloomberg and the advent of him "buying a nomination". With Hillary out of the picture, the democratic infighting is gonna be spectacular this time around. Bernie should be the clear front-runner, but it seems to me the party doesn't want him. Biden is self-destructing by the day. Buttigieg is way too inexperienced. Warren appears to be going the way of Biden. Dunno. Klobuchar might be a bit of an x-factor, but I believe she'll fade. Can you say brokered convention? Sure ya can. https://thehill.com/homenews/campaign/482245-democrats-see-chances-rising-for-brokered-convention
Part of the reason the Democratic Party appears to be so fragmented/splintered. See: Brokered Convention
Biden: "It ain't over, man." As I understand, though, the fat lady is back in her chambers warming up.
