Yesterday the Blazers were 60-1 to win the ship..now as of 6am 2/25 we are 500-1..does Vegas know something we don’t about Dame’s injury?
Perhaps they just realized that nobody believes in the Blazers, and that nobody was taking the 60/1 bet?
Could be..but 60-1 to 500-1 overnight is pretty crazy unless some news comes out regarding a player..I haven’t heard anything
Odds are based on two factors. Probability of winning. PW = A / (A + B) Probability of losing. PL = B / (A + B) That jump seems high but just a couple wins or losses can change it drastically. In this event you have to make the playoffs to even be considered.
Betting odds are based solely on the probability of bettors selecting one side or the other. Vegas doesn't calculate the probability of events, only the midline of public expectations.
The Oregon Scoreboard App has had the Blazers at 85-1 for a week plus now and they usually have worse odds than Vegas because more people bet on the Blazers in Oregon. They're 100-1 still as of right now on an offshore casino Maybe Vegas saw the power of the Clippers if healthy last night, but usually fringe playoff teams still don't fall to 500-1. Where are you seeing this?
60-1 would actually suggest we have about 1.6% chance to win it, which is obviously wrong. 500-1 sounds more realistic at 0.2%.
Seems like you missed the point. The Blazers Probability of even getting in the playoffs have changed dramatically. That is what is changing the odds and people betting. As far as odds go Vegas does indeed base odds on bets placed. Probability though changes those aspects. What are the odds of the Blazers winning a championship when they are mathematically eliminated from making the playoffs? Yes Vegas does calculate probability. You just have to look for it. Just like when a player gets injured. If you would like the title of the book i read on this it's called "Fixed Odds Sports Betting" by Joseph Buchdahl Pretty good book. I am no expert. But i did read up on this.
I saw it on the ESPNNews bottom line where they constantly have odds going for the different sports. Oddly enough, I just saw it again at 5:23am Wednesday morning and we are back to 60-1. I’m not gonna get all conspiracy theory and just assume they made a mistake..
Odds are a prediction gimmick in favor of the house.. Don't get upset. Look what happened to the Ravens and all the media BS that occurred before that playoff game.
No one is upset..it was an abnormality..and that usually doesn’t happen in Vegas without some significant information..so ESPN probably fucked up, or there was something else that caused our odds to go from 60-1 to 500-1 and back to 60-1 in 24 hours..as a sports bettor I’m curious.
