Politics Turning GA, NC, NV, and/or PA into victory (Biden vs Trump, 2020 election!)

I understand everything you are relating here. Trump is hyperbolic, brash, egotistical, and even hypocritical at times. That said, I do think what Orion said has some bearing here in that Trump has had so much hate (litigation) lashed at him from the left, golf may truly be his only outlet.

 

Yep. I agree overall and in case it wasn't clear, i meant Trump’s double standard. Not those pointing out his golfing.
I just wish he would shut the fuck up, do his thing and not give a shit or respond to the media in general.
Never has a President made himself so accessible to the media and there is a reason. prior to Obama you heard from the President a few times a year really and the rest was all press secretary updates.
i understand how the media has shifted over the years but it really is his worst enemy in my opinion. Its very agenda driven rather than truth driven and he lets himself get sucked in and he loses alot of that media warfare because the media does not forget anything said. Ever.

 

i meant the other way around.
I didn't make that clear.
When i said more accessible, i should have said never has a president responded to the media and give focus to the media on an every day basis like Trump does.
He focuses way too much on every news networks tweet.

sorry for twisting that up. Never has a president felt the need to respond to every little thing, and do so in a format that leaves little room or option for rebuttal or follow up questions.

 

lmao! I always find it hilarious how hard the trumpers work to excuse what trump does.

 

Why is it that Trump has so much hate focused at him? Could it be because he has detestable ways? Nah, it couldn't be that.

 

They've got their work cut out for them.

 

Ann Coulter has been on a twitter rampage lately against tRump. Just ROASTING him.

 

GOP lawmaker calls on Trump to stop promoting Scarborough conspiracy theory: 'It will destroy us'

Rep. Adam Kinzinger (R-Ill.) called on President Trump to stop promoting the "completely unfounded conspiracy" theory regarding the death of an intern for MSNBC "Morning Joe" anchor Joe Scarborough, a former Republican congressman from Florida.

The president on Sunday morning urged his followers in a tweet to read an article from conservative website True Pundit, which claimed that evidence showed foul play in the death of Lori Klausutis, 28, in 2001.

“Just stop,” Kinzinger responded said. “Stop spreading it, stop creating paranoia. It will destroy us.”



On Saturday, the president also tweeted out a story about his calls for further investigations into Klausutis’s death, which a local medical examiner ruled accidental.

Klausutis was found dead in Scarborough’s district office in 2001. A medical examiner determined she had collapsed because of an undiagnosed heart condition and struck her head in the fall.

Trump has previously promoted the conspiracy theory that Scarborough was involved in the death, including earlier this month when he requested Comcast, which owns NBC Universal, to investigate the case.

The MSNBC host, who frequently critiques the president, responded to that tweet on his show, saying Trump was dragging Klausutis’s family through the mud.

Scarborough’s wife and co-host, Mika Brzezinski, tweeted last week that she was going to speak to Twitter CEO Jack Dorsey about getting the president banned from the platform in an apparent reaction to Trump’s tweets about her husband.

Trump often appeared on “Morning Joe” in 2015 and 2016 before he and the hosts became involved in a feud.

Kinzinger has condemned Trump’s rhetoric in interviews but had said he backs the president and has voted in line with him 93.3 percent of the time throughout his career, according to FiveThirtyEight. ​

 

Biden is running ahead of Clinton's 2016 pace

Poll of the week: A new national Fox News poll finds former Vice President Joe Biden with a 48% to 40% lead over President Donald Trump.

The average of all polls taken at least partially this week have Biden up by a 48% to 41% margin.

What's the point: Almost any time I explain that Biden's leading Trump, someone will inevitably bring up "but what about 2016." That's why this week marks an important milestone for the Biden campaign.

It's one of the first times during the election year that Biden was clearly running ahead of Hillary Clinton's 2016 pace in the matchup against Trump.

Four years ago, Trump closed the national gap quickly with Clinton as he was vanquishing Republican rivals Ted Cruz and John Kasich from the presidential race. Clinton's average lead shrank from 10 points during the first half of April to 6 points in the second half in April to 4 points in the first half in May to a mere 1 point in polls completed four years ago between May 16-May 23.

In terms of individual high quality polls, you needn't look further than Fox News. Clinton trailed Trump by 3 points in a Fox News poll out four years ago between May 16-May 23. Now, Biden's up 8 points in that same poll.

Indeed, Clinton was also down in a high quality live telephone ABC News/Washington Post poll four years ago completed between May 16-May 23.

Biden notably hasn't trailed in a single live interview poll this entire year.

Although Clinton would regain some of her advantage in June 2016, the fact that the race became so close at this point four years ago was an indication that the electorate was somewhat unsettled. It showed that under the right circumstances, Clinton could lose nationally, or, at the very least, that Trump could come close enough nationally to win in the electoral college.

Biden's lead, of course, is the steadiest of all time. His lead has never fallen to just a point or anywhere close. It's been consistently at or right around 6 points, as it was this week. If you were to create a 95% confidence interval around the individual 2016 and 2020 polls, the 2016 race was about 1.5 times as volatile up to this point.

But it's not just the margin that is important to examine. Look at the vote percentages.

The reason Biden's lead is so wide compared to Clinton's is that he's running a little more than 5 points ahead of where Clinton was in terms of vote percentage. Biden is at slightly greater than 48%, while Clinton was a little less than 43%.

Even when Clinton's lead widened in June, she never got to 48% in the polls. She had to pick up a lot more late-deciding voters for her lead to feel secure than Biden will likely need to.

Interestingly, Trump's actually pulling about the same percentage of the vote in the polls as he was in late May 2016. Without rounding, he's running only about 0.4 points worse.

There were a lot of undecided or third party voters in late May 2016. Without rounding, Biden and Trump add up to 89.5% of the vote on average. Clinton and Trump added to 84.9%.

Keep in mind, just some of the polls done four years ago completed between May 16-May 23 were including Libertarian Gary Johnson as an option. Focusing in on only those that did have him as a choice showed Clinton and Trump deadlocked at a little less than 39%. That is, Trump was tied with Clinton even as he had a lower share of the vote than he has in the 2020 polls right now. The major party nominees together added up to 77% in the polls that inquired about Johnson.

When the undecided and third party vote is high in the polls, it means greater uncertainty. Third party candidacies tend to deflate over the course of the election year. Combining the undecided and third party voter blocs gives major party candidates a larger pool to pick up voters from.

In other words, Trump had more wiggle room four years ago to pick up ground. And, in fact, Trump won on the strength of his support among voters who decided in the last month.

More Americans have already said they're willing to vote for Biden in the most likely general election matchup than they ever did of Clinton at any point in the final six months of that campaign.

The obvious question moving forward is whether Biden can keep up the pace. So far, he and his basement campaign have been up to the challenge. ​

 

That must be like playing frisbee by yourself but just less peaceful