Next bargain-bin player?

Discussion in 'Portland Trail Blazers' started by Rastapopoulos, Sep 20, 2020.

  1. wizenheimer

    wizenheimer Well-Known Member

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    I don't think too many teams would give up good value for CJ, especially not with his contract

    as has been mentioned many times, his best fit would probably be on a team that has an unorthodox wing as the primary ball-handler and facilitator. Like Philly with Simmons, or Milwaukee with Giannis. I'd also point at Dallas with Doncic, and yuck, even the Lakers with Lebron

    the problem is that Philly won't be trading Simmons for CJ and Dallas won't trade Porzingas for CJ. And I seriously doubt the Bucks would trade Middleton for CJ. So that would leave targets like Tobias Harris (worse contract than CJ), Eric Bledsoe, Tim Hardaway, etc. and that's before trying to match salaries. Seems like it would almost have to be a 3-team trade to get the wheels greased enough. And of course in order for the Blazers to consider trading CJ, the biggest wheel needing grease would be the wheel that takes Olshey out of town

    I posted those PnR and isolation stats because there was discussion about the offense, and when I looked it up I was a little surprised just how good the Blazers were at it. 2nd in frequency and best ppp in the league. I guess I should have not been surprised because Dame is so very good at the PnR and that makes up nearly 52% of his possessions. It's no wonder then that teams jump the Blazer PnR with Dame in the playoffs. It's Portland's best offense

    the disappointing component in the PnR is how weak Blazer post men are as the rollers. Whiteside averaged 1.16 ppp; that was 27% of his possessions and that was only good enough for the 61st percentile. Nurkic only averaged .86 ppp (20.4% of possessions) and that was a dismal 18th percentile. Nurkic was better last season but was only at 1.13 PPP (25% of possessions) and that was only the 60th percentile. Meyers was best at it averaging 1.31 ppp, which was the 86th percentile. But obviously, the numbers don't distinguish between PnR and PnPop. This season, Skal and Tolliver were best as roll men averaging 1.21 PPP

    but I think we've all seen that Nurkic has a major flaw on shots around the rim. He throws up a ton of not-a-chance-in-hell shots inside 7 feet, and he has no patience at all. He absolutely must get a lot better at that because if he did get better, trapping Dame would be more difficult for the opposing defenses if Nurkic made them pay a heavier price....if that makes any sense
     
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  2. Rastapopoulos

    Rastapopoulos Well-Known Member

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    Do you have stats for Embiid?
     
  3. wizenheimer

    wizenheimer Well-Known Member

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    I'll run down the list of major minutes players

    player - frequency - points/possession:

    Mitchell Robinson 26.0% 1.66
    Brandon Clarke 22.9% 1.51
    Christian Wood 19.7% 1.50
    Damian Jones 34.9% 1.49
    Maxi Kleber 25.7% 1.45
    Jarrett Allen 29.3% 1.37
    Nerlens Noel 32.6% 1.37
    Dwight Powell 27.0% 1.35
    Mason Plumlee 23.7% 1.34
    DeAndre Jordan 22.3% 1.33
    John Collins 28.0% 1.31
    Montrezl Harrell 17.3% 1.31
    Jakob Poeltl 19.8% 1.31
    Taj Gibson 23.7% 1.31
    Steven Adams 22.5% 1.29
    Bam Adebayo 17.7% 1.18
    Anthony Davis 12.7% 1.28
    Gorgui Dieng 1.26
    Jonas Valanciunas 1.25
    Thomas Bryant 28.5% 1.24
    Rudy Gobert 27.4% 1.22
    Anthony Tolliver 19.0% 1.21
    Richaun Holmes 28.4% 1.21
    Skal Labissiere 27.5% 1.21
    Bam Adebayo 17.7% 1.18
    Hassan Whiteside 27.0% 1.16
    Chris Boucher 26.1% 1.15
    Derrick Favors 27.8% 1.15
    Aron Baynes 26.3% 1.14
    Jusuf Nurkic 24.6% 1.13 (last season)
    Nikola Vucevic 27.1% 1.11
    Domantas Sabonis 30.3% 1.11
    Nikola Jokic 16.9% 1.03
    Joel Embiid 10.7% 0.95

    If Nurkic is the long term starting C for Portland, he simply must get much better at PnR roll man. Dame is so dynamic if he had a big that was in the top 15%-20%, the Blazer PnR would be deadly. And this is another reason to look cross-eyed at that 2017 draft. Blazers could have John Collins and Jarret Allen, two guys that would have thrived with Dame on the PnR
     
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  4. kjironman1

    kjironman1 Well-Known Member

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    How about 53-55 wins and top 4 in the west. That is very achievable with this core and a few tweaks.
     
  5. wizenheimer

    wizenheimer Well-Known Member

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    they've already achieved that twice in 7 years and it didn't make them contenders. They've also had 51 and 49 win seasons....still pretenders.

    sure I could be wrong, I have been before...but having watched this team for the 8 years of Stotts and the 5 years of Dame/CJ I'm fairly well convinced they won't be altering their trajectory by scheme changes, tweaks, and shuffling around lower levels of the rotation. The weakness is at the top

    maybe they can build enough depth to overcome some injuries, but even that's a major challenge while paying Dame/CJ 60-70% of the salary cap over the next 4 years

    again, kj, I might of misunderstood what you meant by "being in the mix"
     
  6. kjironman1

    kjironman1 Well-Known Member

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    No. you also know better than this. They had 50+ wins three times. The first was with Aldridge and Lillard made the .09 against the Rockets. Lost to the Spurs in the second round. Lillard was a rookie. 54 wins
    The next was the next year. we all know what happened. Mathews went down and not much happened after Aldridge quit. 51 wins
    Then last year they got to the conference finals in spite of the injuries and loss of Nurkic. Are you really thinking that if they were healthy they would not have been a threat last season? 53 wins.
    The 44 win season they went to the second round on was a gift. The Clippers would have won that if Paul was healthy i'm pretty sure.

    The remaining 41 and 49 win seasons are just that. Pretenders that had some heart but wings that could not hit a shot to save their life in the last 5 mins of a game.

    Like i said they need one good bargain basement player and a good trade. This team could be right back to conference finals if HEALTHY. If you make the final four you are in the mix. We all know anything can happen after that.
     
  7. RR7

    RR7 Well-Known Member

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    Did everyone think Miami were contenders this year? Like legit chance at a title contenders?
     
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  8. GDiama

    GDiama Well-Known Member

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    No, but they are also a new team so took us by surprise. I don't see how the Blazers can do that by just keeping the same players.
     
  9. RR7

    RR7 Well-Known Member

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    I think its just that players and combinations can surprise. Completely writing off a team seems foolish to me.
     
  10. Tince

    Tince Well-Known Member

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    Only 2 players (Dame & CJ) played significant minutes in the WCF run in 18-19 and played more than 21 games for us in 19-20.
     
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  11. tester551

    tester551 Well-Known Member

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    What about Cousins (when he was healthy last)?

    Based on this list, it looks like Wood (UFA), Jones (RFA), Noel (UFA) should be our FA targets. Noel would likely be the best 'value' of the three.
     
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  12. kjironman1

    kjironman1 Well-Known Member

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    I just don’t see Golden State letting him go very easily.
     
  13. tester551

    tester551 Well-Known Member

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    Whom?

    Cousins was part of the Lakers team last year.
    Jones played for Atlanta last year.

    Neither one was part of GSW...
     
  14. GDiama

    GDiama Well-Known Member

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    So judging from bubble+ playoffs Ariza and Hood will make us a contender in this West that now includes Lakers, Clippers and improved Nuggets?
     
  15. wizenheimer

    wizenheimer Well-Known Member

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    Miami is a bad comp for where the Blazers are IMO

    they added Jimmy Butler, Jae Crowder, Tyler Herro, Kendrick Nunn, and for the most part, Duncan Robinson to their rotation this year at the same time Adebayo was exploding. That's like 4 new starters. So yeah, their new players and new combinations proved to really alter the team and propel them into contention. And it was pretty obvious by January when they were 25-9 they had a good thing going

    Portland has been in the playoffs for 7 straight seasons. We've seen the good and the bad. They almost certainly won't be adding a player like Butler to the top of the rotation, and probably not a player like Crowder to the middle of the rotation, although Ariza might be close. And Zach won't be playing like Adebayo next season. And they have limited flexibility to add players or combinations that don't just shuffle around 4th or 5th or 6th options

    yeah, Olshey could alter the team significantly and re-tool the roster. But every time he's done that before, Portland has gotten worse
     
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  16. Tince

    Tince Well-Known Member

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    I'm not saying Olshey's moves in the summer of 2019 were good, I'm saying we're not bringing back the same team year after year. I believe your point was that Miami's roster had changed and Portland's had not, which I don't believe to be true.
     
  17. GDiama

    GDiama Well-Known Member

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    Like wizenheimer said Miami changed a lot, we won't do that. Miami lucked into Adebayo exploding and Herro, Robinson being great. Even Nunn had a great season although he is out of the rotation now. They also added Crowder and Iguodala few months ago and everyone had forgotten Dragic because of his injury last season but the guy is really really good. Yes nobody predicted that because it was lots of pieces falling in right place. And it was moves in top of hierarchy. Basically Butler, Adebayo are their best players.

    We just doing lateral moves it seems while competition has taken big steps forward.
     
    Last edited: Sep 25, 2020
  18. kjironman1

    kjironman1 Well-Known Member

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    My bad. What i should have said is it's hard for me to understand why the Warriors gave up on him? He was cheap. They were not going anywhere last season anyway. I wonder if he is really worth the effort?
    And yes i had totally forgot he was even on the Lakers.
     
    Last edited: Sep 25, 2020
  19. RR7

    RR7 Well-Known Member

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    Miami changed a lot, we won't do that. Last year we were in the WCF, and then in the offseason went out and swapped out 8 of the top 13 players from last season in minutes played! Did the moves work out? No. Injuries hit, and we didn't have the same LUCK that Miami did with Robonson, Herro, etc. But everyone acts like we sat on our hands and did absolutely nothing when the team moved half their players! Sometimes you have the luck of a guy busting out that pushes you to contender. That could have been Zach for us, but he got hurt. Or Simons. Or if Trent played earlier, whatever. We didn't. But that's my point, it takes that luck often times, especially if you're not a team with Lebron. Because one year we didn't have it, we're pretenders and never going to amount to more to some people, but yet every year teams sneak through with that luck.
     
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  20. Buffalo Custard

    Buffalo Custard Well-Known Member

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    Did Miami have "luck", or did they draft and develop some useful players while the Blazers were farting around with guys like Simons, Swanigan, Zach, etc?
     
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