Exclusive Official 2020 Draft Thread

Discussion in 'Portland Trail Blazers' started by tester551, Nov 12, 2019.

  1. illmatic99

    illmatic99 formerly yuyuza1

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  2. Buffalo Custard

    Buffalo Custard Well-Known Member

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    Odd, isn't it? He had success with Dame and CJ, then switched 180 degrees and started drafting guys nothing like them?
     
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  3. PCmor7

    PCmor7 Generational Poster

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    Your definitions and mine may vary. I stand by what I said, because I think there is so much more to being a lights out shooter than stats. If that's your guy, fine. I wouldn't be jumping out the basement window if he was drafted because I think he's a good player, just doesn't move the needle for me nearly as much as several other guys, and I think those other guys will be superior players to Bey 3-4 years down the road.
     
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  4. PCmor7

    PCmor7 Generational Poster

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    Is it?

    Is he going to be better than Ariza? Than Trent? Than Wenyen? Than Melo if he comes back?

    Where are his minutes going to come from? If you aren't drafting Bey to play now, then you are drafting for upside, but there are several guys who have the makings of being better two-way players than Bey down the line, so it doesn't seem to make a lot of sense unless all the other guys you liked are gone and you can't trade the pick.

    Personally, I think our most pressing needs are depth at PG and at the 4/5.
     
  5. 42N8Bounce

    42N8Bounce Red Hot And Rebuilding

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    That's the fun part about the draft. There's so much unknown. Defining "Best Player Available" or "Skills Translatable to the NBA" are very subjective and difficult to predict.

    Who are the other guys you're thinking will be available at #16 that you prefer over Bey?

    (My preferences at #16 are: Vernon Carey, Saddiq Bey, Zeke Nnaji, and Jalen Smith.)

    upload_2020-10-1_11-40-36.png
     
  6. Rastapopoulos

    Rastapopoulos Well-Known Member

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    Ariza and Melo will matter, at most, for the next season. Trent can play SG at the same time Bey plays forward. So the real competition is Nas, Hoard and Wenyen, and Bey can already shoot threes way better than any of them, and likely handle the ball better, too.
     
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  7. Rastapopoulos

    Rastapopoulos Well-Known Member

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    So do you rank prospects entirely by stats? What was your ranking of LAST year's draft?
     
  8. Rastapopoulos

    Rastapopoulos Well-Known Member

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    Not really: Dame and CJ were lottery picks. When you've got a lottery pick, there's strong pressure to NOT FUCK IT UP. Therefore, pick the guy with more of a track record. When you're picking lower down, you're spending less, so you can gamble more.

    Olshey's (fairly) consistent strategy:

    High first: pick the sure thing (Dame, CJ. Departed from this strategy with Meyers and see what happened)
    Low first: gamble on the guy with a high ceiling but also fairly high bust potential (Simons, Little. Departed from this with Biggie and see what happened)
    Second rounder: pick the four year college guy flying under the radar because he's not exactly a star (Connaughton, Layman)

    Anomalies: Meyers (bad), Swanigan (bad), Trent (good!)
     
  9. 42N8Bounce

    42N8Bounce Red Hot And Rebuilding

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    I've got a program I've been working on the last few years that analyses college bb stats. It's kinda like PER, but add a lot of factors such as: age of player, win/loss of team, strength of schedule of team. It also makes adjustments to find key potential problems. For example, if a player is a good rebounder, but is very low on blocks (C Swanigan), it may indicate there is a slow foot problem. It also looks for other historical college players with similar stats and looks at their NBA success. It doesn't analyze non-college players.

    Here's 2019:
    1. Ja Morant
    2. Zion Williamson (solid)
    3. Grant Williams
    4. Brandon Clarke
    5. RJ Barrett
    6. Coby White (risk)
    7. Jarrett Culver
    8. Jaylen Hands (high risk)
    9. Chuma Okeke (upside)
    10. Jordan Bone
    11. DeAndre Hunter
    12. Ty Jerome (risk)
    13. Rui Hachimura (risk)
    14. Bruno Fernandeo
    15. PJ Washington

    Of course every year there are some misses and some hidden gems. Stats can't see things like attitude, drugs, IQ, injuries, team fit....
     
  10. Buffalo Custard

    Buffalo Custard Well-Known Member

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    Where would you place Collins in this?
     
  11. PCmor7

    PCmor7 Generational Poster

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    It'd probably easier to tell you the guys I don't like at all than the guys I like.

    Guys who might be there I like at least as much as Bey ... Achiuwa, Patrick Williams, Kira Lewis, probably Jalen Smith and Josh Green. Also intrigued with Daniel Oturu. Pokusevski's a wild card whose upside I think is off the charts because of how he can handle the ball at his size.
     
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  12. PCmor7

    PCmor7 Generational Poster

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    OK. I think you are really overrating Bey, personally, and his handle in particular, which is loose and the weakest part of his game. Judging Bey on three years against Big East competition vs. the little we've seen of Nas, Hoard and Wenyen against the best athletes in the world really underestimates the jump Bey is making, and, again, when you put Ariza and Melo in there, Trent in there, I guess you have to put Zach in there because you see Bey playing at the 4, well, I guess I could just go back to what I posted earlier, I don't think he's superior to those guys to earn minutes next year, and then when you get the year after that or 2022, some of these younger prospects are probably going to be passing him up because his ceiling is low.

    Just MO.
     
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  13. tester551

    tester551 Well-Known Member

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    So what is the list for 2020 look like?
     
  14. PCmor7

    PCmor7 Generational Poster

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    I've said this before. I like the depth in this draft. There are a lot of GOOD players who can be solid rotation guys on good teams. It's going to be a matter of fit for most of them, and I don't think there are a lot of stars in this draft. I could see several guys going in the 30s in this draft turning out better than half of the lottery picks. Just a very unusual, balanced group of prospects. But I think a lot of it is going to come down to guys who find the right niche, the right coaches, the right teammates.

    What's right for the Blazers depends on what they're looking for. Is the FO looking for someone to contribute in the next couple of years? Then you probably pick Bey or Smith, but I think the best avenue then is to trade the pick and acquire a vet. If you are saying we're looking at keeping this team viable post-Dame and CJ and the draft is how we're going to get those players, if Patrick Williams is available at 16, you don't hesitate to select him.
     
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  15. 42N8Bounce

    42N8Bounce Red Hot And Rebuilding

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    Stats analysis for 2020:
    1. James Wiseman (solid)
    2. Tyrese Haliburton (high risk)
    3. Vernon Carey (solid)
    4. Onyeka Okongwu (solid)
    5. Obi Toppin (solid)
    6. Xavier Tillman (risk)
    7. Tre Jones (risk)
    8. Kira Lewis (high risk)
    9. Nico Mannion (solid)
    10. Malachi Flynn (risk)
    11. Ashton Hagans (solid)
    12. Jalen Smith (solid)
    13. Devin Vassell (high risk)
    14. Devon Dotson (solid)
    15.Isaac Okoro (risk)

    Some guys later on the list with projected good up-side: Udoka Azubuike, Isaiah Stewart, Saddiq Bey, and Zeke Nnaji.

    The program doesn't like Anthony Edwards. Inefficient shooter on a mediocre team. It projects him as a roll-player.

    Edit: I initially entered Reggie Perry's data in incorrectly to my program (I had him initially ranked number 5). He dropped down the list. Above list updated with additional comp matching risk.
     
    Last edited: Oct 2, 2020
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  16. tester551

    tester551 Well-Known Member

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    How do the qualifiers work? What is 'solid' versus 'high risk' versus nothing?

    I'm really high on Haliburton (don't see him as risky) and Okongwu. I think Carey is going to struggle in the NBA - so how is he solid? How are likely 2nd round picks (Flynn, Hagans) 'high risk'?
     
  17. 42N8Bounce

    42N8Bounce Red Hot And Rebuilding

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    The qualifiers are associated with finding historical similar college players and how well they faired in the NBA. The likely 2nd round picks you noted are 'high risk' picking at the location noted above. Their raw stats are good, but finding comparable successful NBA players with similar college stats was low.
     
  18. Rastapopoulos

    Rastapopoulos Well-Known Member

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  19. Rastapopoulos

    Rastapopoulos Well-Known Member

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    Why is Halliburton high risk?
     
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  20. James lamphear

    James lamphear Well-Known Member

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    I think Carey will be good in the PNR even though he more of conventional type of center. Those type still have a place in this league. Look at Whiteside and even Nurk when came in this league both are really conventional type of centers. Even though Nurk trying extend his game but his strengths is still free throw and in on offense.
     

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