So, About Next Season?

Discussion in 'Portland Trail Blazers' started by wizenheimer, Sep 3, 2020.

  1. SharpesTriumph

    SharpesTriumph Well-Known Member

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    Players aren't going to like some thing and owners wont like others. Players will also have different groups, guys on contracts vs free agents. We might see sides threaten to not play or cancel the season. Ultimately I dont think things get delayed too many months as those sides get desperate when $0 is coming in and demands will change. Who knows though, we will see.
     
  2. blazerkor

    blazerkor Well-Known Member

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    Then Silver is just posturing when he says he won't start the season without fans or do you think 1/4 of the fans will make it worth it? Again, as a union I don't think the players can afford to go the way of the NFL and just allow their contracts to be negated... it sets a dangerous precedent. Maybe I'm wrong and the players say, "Just this one time, for this season only, you can not pay us what you are legally bound to pay us but play us all 82 games and we'll do that for the good of the league." That just doesn't sound like a plausible thing to me but who knows.
     
  3. Stevenson

    Stevenson Old School

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    As a season ticket holder, the Blazers surveyed me about two months ago about what it would take to get me to feel safe back in the arena: Every other seat seating, temperature checks, mandatory masks? etc. My answer, no, no, no. I'm high-risk and don't see how I can go back until Covid is over. People walking up and down the aisles, yelling, sneezing, coughing, shouting, sweating...

    I don't see it. You?
     
  4. SharpesTriumph

    SharpesTriumph Well-Known Member

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    They of course want as many fans as possible. First post I replied of yours you said they need 100% fans, I totally disagree with that. If it came down in many months to either 25% fans or no games I think they do 25%... obviously they want more.

    I'm not an attorney so dont know exactly how these contracts work... My understanding is there is a lot of flexibility to agree on many detailed allocations, reserves, other changes in a new CBA. I am a CPA and better understand business decisions. If players are hard lined then owners will say no season. Owners have a lot of expenses players dont so they wont be ok paying full salaries many expenses and losing huge revenue.

    Ultimately I think each group gets some good stuff and gives up something they dont want and we have games start between Dec-Feb.
     
  5. THE HCP

    THE HCP NorthEastPortland'sFinest

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    If this is true, will you buy my family Christmas presents?
     
  6. perkinsfor3

    perkinsfor3 Well-Known Member

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    I want to lock in Gabriel with Dame and CJ and get him to work on his shot non stop. His upside is enourmous but he needsto add range.
     
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  7. blazerkor

    blazerkor Well-Known Member

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    I really don't see it at all. Cutting it down to 25% still means thousands of people indoors together. According to every guideline and study that I've seen that sort of thing is considered a super spreader. I don't see the league having fans in attendance until there is a vaccine and it is administered to almost everyone, especially everyone who is high risk. I don't see that being done any time soon. It's just too big of a risk for the league and individual teams to take. No one wants to have the blood of dead fans on their hands because sports were more important than human life. I understand that you are high-risk and that deters you from wanting to attend but anyone that does attend and is infected then becomes someone that could unknowingly spread the virus to you and other high-risk people. Then you have Adam Silver saying that he doesn't want to start the next season until there can be fans. It's all a lot to try to wrap my head around.
     
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  8. blazerkor

    blazerkor Well-Known Member

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    I think you may be right but I don't think fans will be in attendance if games start that soon. They'll figure something out like the multiple mini bubbles idea and get things going again but both sides are going to have to make some very financially painful concessions. The alternative though is to have zero income and I just don't think that makes sense for either side. The thing I wonder about is how the negotiations will go. Do they end up with a season to season CBA until this virus/disease achieves some sort of herd immunity? What is the revenue split going to look like that will allow both sides to fulfill already existing unavoidable financial obligations? Many games have been lost to work stoppage in this league and others in far far more hospitable environments for negotiations. We'll just see how things go.
     
  9. e_blazer

    e_blazer Rip City Fan

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    Silver says he wants to start in January and play a full season and he wants to have games with fans in attendance. There won’t be a widely available vaccine until March or April at the earliest. Throw in the Olympics and you can see that something is going to have to give. Even if American NBA players step back from the US Olympic team, are international players going to be willing or able to do that? Then there’s the possibility/probability that the owners are going to play hardball with players on the CBA. I have no idea how this is going to work out.
     
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  10. Hoopguru

    Hoopguru Well-Known Member

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    They should play a whole season imo. I guess for most their job isn't essential as most a millionaires. I was with my wife yesterday at Coscto than I dragged her to Home Depot and both places were packed out.
    I would think they would limit the amount of fans for sd but not sure?
     
  11. e_blazer

    e_blazer Rip City Fan

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    I agree that they can probably work out a reasonably safe plan to have some fans in attendance. They could start with very limited numbers and ramp up as people get vaccinated. They may have to make adjusted based on the numbers of local infections. There are still too many wheels in motion to have any real idea how it will pan out though.
     
  12. wizenheimer

    wizenheimer Well-Known Member

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    here's a thought: if there's a vaccine, the NBA could require 'proof-of-vaccination' before allowing someone to attend games

    that won't get anybody riled up...right?
     
  13. SlyPokerDog

    SlyPokerDog Woof! Staff Member Administrator

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    Still too many unknowns to make that decision.

    But sure, if the vaccine is completely effective I don't see anyone but the anti-vaccers having a problem with it.
     
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  14. Wizard Mentor

    Wizard Mentor Wizard Mentor

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  15. lawai'a

    lawai'a Well-Known Member

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    an update on likely starting dates beyond the draft including free agency and next season are asked and answered in an article about what comes next after the bubble and a Q&A with NBPA boss Michele Roberts. she gives answers about the discussions she has already held with Nate Silvers too.is at the athletic behind a pay wall so will post some highlights. there is a lot more depth to her answers at the athletic.
    https://theathletic.com/2118672/202...-nbpa-boss-michele-roberts/?source=dailyemail

    — January and February are realistic start times for the 2020-21 season: “The latter part of January, February makes sense. If it’s later than that, if we have a terrible winter because the virus decides to reassert herself, that’s fine. The absolute earliest would be January, and that’s doable.” The NBA and NBPA both have shared goals: An 82-game season, in-market play, reduced travel and potentially a set amount of fans.
    — Free agency is expected to be no later than Dec. 1 — and the salary cap and tax numbers should not dip much lower than the current projections: “We can’t go much beyond (Dec. 1) for (free agency).
    Utah Jazz star Donovan Mitchell, Portland Trail Blazers forward Carmelo Anthony and Milwaukee Bucks guard Sterling Brown will serve on the Social Justice Coalition.
    Sacramento Kings forward Harrison Barnes and Philadelphia 76ers forward Tobias Harris will serve as player reps on the NBA Foundation.

    In your meeting with Adam, what did you take away about the league’s future?

    That there is a future. As bad as this thing is, it’s never occurred to me and I won’t allow it to occur to me that somehow basketball, as we know it, is over. This has been an incredibly successful sport in terms of popularity and revenue-generating possibilities. That’s not going to change. We’re certainly on a detour right now, but at the end of the day, professional basketball is still going to be an incredible machine. What we’re doing now is figuring out how to manage what is a short-term problem. We’re not going to make as much money. Money is not a dirty word, it’s the reality. So we need to figure out what we’re going to do about a season that is revenue-challenged. That’s what we’re addressing and once the Finals end, then we’re going to have conversations in a very significant way. We’re just setting the table for that.
    What are the scenarios? How do you address the losses in finances?

    Everyone is projecting what the losses are likely going to look like. We projected a BRI of over $8 billion and it ain’t going to be a BRI of over $8 billion. That’s clear. As long as we can’t have our arenas to full capacity, we have to be realistic. That’s a 40 percent revenue drop. So the question is, how do we deal with that and allow the pain that’s clearly going to be felt in a way that makes sense? Clearly the issue will be is … our current BRI has the owners enjoying 49 percent of the revenue, players get 51 percent … we have a substantially smaller pie now. But there’s some real numbers out there, some committed salaries, and some fixed costs. If we’re not talking about an $8-plus billion revenue year, but a $6-plus billion revenue year, what does that mean in terms of our ability get 51 percent and the owners’ ability to get their 49 percent?

    Adjustments are going to have to be made so we can all walk away with some pain but not unfairly distributed.
    How do you guys go about closing any gaps?

    It comes down to if it’s a $6 billion pie and our owners are entitled to 49 percent, and they’re already committed to $5 billion in player salaries and fixed costs for example, where’s the rest of their money? There’s ways to take that $6 billion and get to their 49 percent. One of the ways to do it is to slash player salaries. I got to deal with a constituency that, you slash their salaries, this may be for many of my guys on the last two or three years of their careers. Is there a way to deal with that?

    And we’ll never say to the owners: Y’all just going to have to eat the loss. Who’s going to do that? They’re not stupid. They’re not just going to say, OK, yeah you’re right, we’re just going to have to lose a couple billion dollars on our own. That’s not going to happen. Instead what you say is, can we figure out a way to manage that so there is no loss, but there isn’t an immediate pay day. Can you withstand some delay in getting your money? I have some real life examples of people I know in my life that say that they live paycheck-to-paycheck. And there are other people that can say that they can deal with deferred compensation. You figure it out. Our players are well-compensated, I’m not suggesting that’s not the case, but at the end of the day if you’re talking a billion-to-two-billion-dollar gap is there
    At times, the fear of a lockout has also come up.

    Nobody wants that. When the players ask me now: Michele, do you think the owners are going to try to lock us out? I use the analysis: the revenue hit is not to be ignored. But do I think we’re not going to rebound and make money again and again soon … I do think we will. You don’t kill the golden goose. I would bet there is not a chance of a lockout. If it happens, it will be absolutely because they are unreasonable and folks without any foresight are driving the train. I happen to think that Adam is neither of those.

    We’re going to resolve this.
     
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  16. kjironman1

    kjironman1 Well-Known Member

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    That would be cool.
     
  17. <-=*PdX*=->

    <-=*PdX*=-> RCTID

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    Vegas would be a great spot
     
  18. PHXBlazer1

    PHXBlazer1 Well-Known Member

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    I think it probably depends on the outcome of the election as well..these two guys might handle things quite differently
     
  19. blazerkor

    blazerkor Well-Known Member

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    I don't think the NBA is making money off of the bubble, I'm pretty sure the expenses are way too high and the only revenues are TV revenues. Also are we talking like 4 stints in the bubbles per team because even if they just went HAM and played a whole season every other day that would put these guys in the limited freedom of a bubble environment for five and a half straight months obviously they won't be able to go every other day but lets just say if they did players aren't spending that much time in isolation. If you have stints of doing it with lets say two week breaks between then you would be looking at 7 months. Again, I'm pretty sure the NBA loses money every day they operate the bubble so I just don't see this working out and there would have to be bubble exchange because the top teams in the East already get off easy playing a majority of there games against the rest of the East. It's all a moot point because the reason that Silver has said he won't start games again without fans in attendance is because the NBA can't survive without that revenue stream. It will honestly cost them far far less to cancel one season than to do the bubble or multi-bubble solution. Also the CBA is getting voided so I guess none of this matters because we don't even know what the business structure of the league and it's operations will look like going forward.
     
  20. lawai'a

    lawai'a Well-Known Member

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    " The NBA and NBPA both have shared goals: An 82-game season, in-market play, reduced travel and potentially a set amount of fans." this is a quote from the roberts interview. it doesn't appear a second bubble season is being considered at this point. less travel would indicate more in conference scheduling, with perhaps a second game vs, traveling team at each stop but in market play means home and away games likely in the arenas, with smaller crowds through social distancing. the individual governors in the teams' states with authority over health/business rules will have the biggest impact on crowd size restrictions and their guidance will be based on community spread of the virus going forward.

     
    Last edited: Oct 11, 2020
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