Kinda. I believe it says they think other GMs are more likely to fire their coach before Olshey fires Stotts. Which is interesting on multiple fronts.
Budenholzer and Malone both made a conference Finals. That gives them a lifetime pass according to the always-Stotts crowd. See how that works both ways?
Is there an “always Stotts” crowd? I don’t recall anyone posting anything saying he gets his job in perpetuity. I’m in the “you don’t change coaches in the middle of a pandemic-shortened season, especially when the team is overachieving while missing two critical starters, because that would be fricking stupid considering the new coach would have zero practice time to implement his new system and he’d be likely to be only an interim coach anyway because no sane good coach is going to walk into a job like that when the current GM’s neck is also likely to get chopped if the team underperforms the rest of the season” crowd.
We have had a pretty cake season so far, and now that we're in a tough stretch against playoff teams, we're getting spanked pretty hard. We could very easily lose 4 of our next 5 games. How will people feel about Stotts if that happens?
There are 4 games remaining before the All-Star break: at the Lakers, and home vs. Hornets, Warriors and Kings. I’m not worried about losing all four of those games. A lot of fans want Stotts gone for varying reasons and I don’t think the Blazers’ record in those four games is going to make a difference in how those fans feel about him. I also don’t think that those fans’ feelings about Stotts address anything about what I said in my post about why now is not the time to make a coaching change.
The main question when it comes to Stotts is what will it take for him to actually get fired? It’s probably too early to make that call right now, but if he doesn’t get the team deep in the playoffs, especially if he has a relatively healthy roster, someone’s gotta go. Otherwise what are we doing here? I’m tired of hearing how we’re in the playoffs every year. Half the conference makes it in, it’s not that grand of an accomplishment and we’re past the point of it being the primary objective.
I was addressing your point about the team overachieving with CJ and Nurk out. That point might come into question as we fall close to .500.
I don't think he gets fired until either Olshey is gone, the team gets sold, or Dame decides he wants him gone (which won't happen.)
Stotts knows he's on the hot seat this season. All you have to do is watch some of his post-game interviews to know he's feeling the stress. I think Olshey is better at hiding his emotions than Terry, and he doesn't get the same amount of public exposure, but he has to know that after a couple of years of big spending and making roster moves designed to contend, his job is also on the line. I think it's make or break for both of them. If the Blazers get healthy and make a run in the playoffs (certainly have to win 1 and likely 2 rounds), then I think that they get to keep their jobs. If not, it's going to be time for some new blood at both positions. I have no objection to changing coaches based on this year's performance. I just think making the change now would be a poor decision.
I don't see any weight to the "don't fire Stotts mid-season" narrative but that's because I don't see anything significant that Portland would be risking. I mean, what is the ceiling for this team this season? Sure looks like it's Portland making the playoffs, likely without HCA, losing their 1st round pick in a strong draft, and then getting boat-raced by a true contender, probably in the 1st round. I don't see enough value in that "upside" to worry about risking it I think Portland needs significant changes. I think Olshey should be fired and Stotts should be fired and CJ should be traded. I don't really care what order that happens in, but it probably requires the soap opera actor to be given his walking papers first right now, Portland owns 4 wins against teams with winning records, and two of those came against Philly, a team they won't meet in the playoffs. They have only beaten 2 Western Conference playoff teams and those two wins came in the first 8 days of the season
With the current roster that's available to play, this team is a .500 squad at best. Without Dame, they'd be a bottom-feeder team. Being in 5th spot is definitely overachieving, especially when most of the wins that account for that position occurred after Nurk and CJ went down with injuries. But my main point is that even if the Blazers end up going on a losing streak, now is not the time to change coaches. The primary reason is that the Blazers just aren't going to get really good quality coaching candidates mid-season and with everyone knowing that a change in GMs is also a likely outcome after the season. The new GM is going to want to pick his own head coach.
Is he though? The dude gets a built in get-out-of-jail-free card every year because someone is injured. And with CJ and Nurk and Collins out, I don't think the dude is even remotely on the hot seat. I would be shocked if they fired him.
Yes I did, but it also gave me an opening to make the case that I've been wanting to make. Your post gave me a nice segue to that, so thanks!
But that was really my point. I think we're starting to come back to earth and will be closer to the .500 that we probably deserve. We got a few nice wins while CJ and Nurk were out, but overall we beat up on some really crappy teams. I don't think the team has been overachieving, I think we just had an easy schedule. Now that the schedule is tougher, we're really getting exposed. But Stotts still has the built in excuse of the injuries.
At this point all we have is our own opinions on that. Mine is that Stotts and Olshey are joined at the hip. They float or sink together. I can't imagine a scenario where Jody Allen and the Vulcans are willing to continue feeding the huge dollars into the team that they have the last couple of seasons and being happy with being also-rans year after year. The injuries are a part of the game, but they don't give coaches and GMs a continual get out of jail free card. Good coaches and GMs find moves and adjustments to make to remain competitive. So far, I'd say neither Stotts or Olshey has done anything in that regards.
What kind of quality coaching and GM candidates do you think that you're going to get mid-season? Philly is looking pretty smart for waiting until the off-season to grab Morey and Doc Rivers. We need a move like that.
Stotts has a built-in reality of injuries. I'm absolutely certain he'd prefer a reality of having Nurk and CJ available to play and be judged on the results the team is able to achieve with their near-full roster. Getting judged on message boards by people assuming what the team would do when healthy isn't much of a measuring stick.
fire the coach hire an interim coach, then hire the next HC in the off-season. That's how Stotts got his job....karma
