I wanted to cry when Olshey shocked everyone by dumping Davis, the heart of Blazer over-effort. Statistically per minute, Davis was our 3rd-4th-best player, and actually ranked 2nd-3rd in many many games. After each game I'd calculate the per minutes, see Davis at the top, then read everyone praising the usual suspects, Lillard and McCollum. Olshey is so in love with his draftees that he thought that Zach Collins was better, after a shitty rookie season in which the "shooter" missed all his shots...then went to the bench in foul trouble every single game. Collins will never be as good as Davis was for us. Even if I'm wrong, it will take Collins years to get there. Meanwhile he could have learned from Davis. Olshey was right to trade 1st-round picks for Covington, because he lacks the talent to draft big men.
I liked Davis too but the guy's been on 7 teams in 11 years? Must be he likes those 1-4 year contacts? You'd think he would have stuck somewhere as a off the bench 4/5. Do blazer fans just get to crazy over players if they aren't causing trouble, is it part of the small market fall in love easily?
Its 100% that "small market please love us we will love you" mentality. Thats not insulting, its what I love about Portland. I am from Portland. Lived other places, but Portland takes things personally.
I used math and I get 9.5 to 9.9 expected wins. Took our WL% record vs opponent WL% and crunched it into a made up formula. No matter how I make that formula, so long as it's consistent and reasonable, it produces nearly the same answer. Based purely on WL record I say we win 9-10 of the last 18 games. We have a better record than the aggregate opposition.
Interesting! I'd probably take the under on 9 wins if I had to pick. Those last couple games of the season could be all out battles or one team could not even be trying.
Even if 9 is about right, the standard deviation over 18 games is around 2 so winning as few as 7 or as many as 11 is easily possible.