Game Thread GAME# 56: BLAZERS @ HORNETS - APRIL 18, 2021 - SUNDAY, 4:00, NBCSNW

really happy that Dame get's some rest during this short road trip. Hope he can play against the Clippers

 

can stat experts confirm or deny this

 

Confirmed.

Since that date in 11 games we are 19th defensively and 4.4 points/100 better after taking into account the strength of opponent offense.
Excluding the two games Nurk missed we are 17th defensively and 5.4 points/100 better after taking into account the strength of opponent offense.

 

So the Jazz sit pretty much their entire starting roster and keep the game close but the Lakers get a win.

 

The Suns are getting torched by the Spurs.
But the team that worries me is the Grizzlies just beat the Bucks. Kind of wish the Blazers played them when they were supposed to.

 

Now for the big question: why?

1) Stotts made positive coaching adjustments.
2) 1-2 players (Nurk/Powell) can make a massive difference in comparison to who they're replacing.
3) The Blazers schedule the last 11 games is way easier than the early games this season.

 

How do you know that? What is your argument? Are you at the practices or in the huddles? Or are you just pissed we don’t win more?

 

This could be true...

If it were true, it would be more proof that coaching isn't the issue, it's roster creation and management that has by far the greatest impact.

 

Nurk is great. He is an excellent anchor to a defense, he's a great offensive facilitator and if he will just dunk the damn ball every time he gets a chance, he'll be an all star. He should and probably does have great value around the league... as long as he can stay healthy.

 

nurk offensive struggles are understandable

since he break his leg, hes played in only 35 games, which is not enough to get to where he was, so it will require continuity... i mean, when he broke his leg, everybody knew it will be long road ahead and that he will need to start from the very beggining, first to recover, then to build up his conditioning and then build up his game again

 

You absolutely must be a lawyer and a chess player.

 

LOL... no on both, but valid assumption!

 

For 3) I did it two ways: Raw defensive rating and then adjusted for the offensive rating of the opponent. We came out 19th both ways.

4) Variance. I finally checked the standard deviation of an NBA score, its about 12. The standard deviation of points/100 is 11 -- lower than score because it removes pace variability. A defensive rating is the average of opponent points/100. So the standard deviation of a defensive rating will be about about 11 / square-root(sample-size). Nurk has played 9 games since coming back. Standard deviation of our defensive rating is 11 / sqrt(9) = 3.67. So with 95% confidence we can say "our defensive rating with Nurk is 5.4 points better plus or minus 7.3". Using a 9 game sample is fun but also kind of futile. Better to just watch the games and notice the difference.

 

I know it's annoying and frustrating. He seems to play low and crouched with the ball instead of tall. Like he instinctively wants to go down before going up and he doesn't seem to have correct balance/footwork so his "up" isn't very far up, so he flips the ball instead of powering it home. He also needs to be a bit more selective with his passing. Just because someone cuts doesn't mean you have to pass it. And quit shooting any 3's (unless you are really making at the very least 33% in practice -- maybe he is but he's 16% career).

 

Yeah, the shots that he has been missing are so freaking easy it's hard to believe that he will not eventually start making them.
As long he doesn't force passes that have a high difficulty of succeeding I am Ok with his offense currently sucking. He will turn it around.

 

Hoping tipoff is at 4:20

 

<<<standing ovation>>>

 

hes shooting free throws 57% this season, 88% in the bubble (8 games) and 77% in the season (72 games) when he suffered leg injury

he always missed easy shots and always will, but hes missing them more than ever and with bad free throw shooting it shows he struggles, but that should come around with time, like i said, it requires continuity to get feel for the game back

 

It's funny because Nurk actually has really good footwork. It honestly seems like a conscious decision to not take a beat to get his feet set, not take a second to go up strong and instead just flip up some wild ass shit every time he has some gimme around the hoop. It takes the guy almost no effort to dunk it, he just chooses not to. It definitely has nothing to do with his injury because he has been doing this shit his entire time with us and I don't think it has to do with skills because he chooses to dunk it sometimes and when he does, it's with authority.

Bottom line is that if Nurk decided to drop 20 lbs. and make a concerted effort to be a dominant low block scorer who, like you said, doesn't have to make every pass but does have to make virtually every shot attempt then he would be all star level. Right now I think the league probably looks at him and thinks that Stotts has never given him the structure that he obviously needs to flourish.