If only there was a stat to see how much a player is used on offense. Oh, wait, there is... USG% Other than the 2020-2021 season, Nurkic had a larger USG% and FGA per game under TS teams than this year. It's a lot more likely to be a combination of health and contract year and dedication by Nurk that not giving him opportunities...
there also might be this correlation: as a Blazer, in 2017-18 Nurk had his highest FGA/100-possessions (2.3 more than 2nd highest season) and highest usage rate of his career. That season, he had, by far, the lowest TS%, OBPM, and offensive rating of his Blazer career now, a big part of that may have been that he was only 23 and has since matured. But still, that a possible correlation that's hard to ignore
Sam Mitchell, after the Portland victory in Memphis: "If you look at the stat sheet closely, the difference in this game was Jaren Jackson. Nurkic took him out of the game. Jaren Jackson spent so much energy and time trying to guard Nurkic, it took away his offense." (Jaren Jackson was 2-10 for 7 points in the game.) Mitchell's post-game comments start at 8:23 in this video:
A big part of his play lately is that Chauncey is running sets to get him good low post position. Terry would feed Nurk by walking the ball up the side of the court then entering directly to Nurk. By that time Nurkic had been pushed out to 15 feet then had to exhert a bunch of energy backing his guy down while giving teams time to double.
Check out how easy (or seemingly just too much work for everyone in the past) it is for Nurk to get a near 100% shot at the hoop. It does take a few passes and player movement by him and his teammates. Simons to Nurk, to Josh Hart, to Winslow, back to Nurk. Edit: maybe it isn't "easy" but definitely "possible."
that seemed more like a catch-&-shoot than a post-up. Maybe a spot-up? according to NBA.com: post-up stats: percentage of player's offense - points/possession - percentile: Myles Turner: 12.7% - 1.16 - 89th percentile (maybe why Portland was interested in trading for him) E. Freedom: 15.4% - 1.15 - 87th percentile Biyombo: 10.6% - 1.14 - 87th percentile Olynyk: 12.4% - 1.13 - 85th percentile Jokic - 21.1% - 1.11 - 82nd percentile Embiid: 29.6% - 1.08 - 80th percentile J. Allen: 14.0% - 1.07 - 77th percentile Aldridge: 17.2% - 1.06 - 76th percentile M. Harrell: 19.9% - 1.03 - 71st percentile Ayton: 21.2% - 1.01 - 68th percentile Whiteside: 10.4% - 0.98 - 63rd percentile A. Gordon: 15.8% - 0.97 - 63rd percentile AD: 17.0% - 0.97 - 61st percentile Valunciunas: 27.5% - 0.97 - 60th percentile Jaren Jackson: 12.1% - 0.97 - 59th percentile E. Mobley: 15.7% - 0.96 - 57th percentile Giannis: 13.5% - 0.94 - 55th percentile (thought he'd be higher) Ibaka: 13.4% - 0.94 - 54th percentile Horford: 13.8% - 0.93 - 53rd percentile Robin Lopez: 44.2% - 0.92 - 48th percentile Adebayo: 15.2% - 0.91 - 45th percentile J. Collins: 18.9% - 0.91 - 44th percentile C.Wood: 10.0% - 0.90 - 42nd percentile Porzingas: 22.3% - 0.89 - 39th percentile Portis: 15.0% - 0.89 - 39th percentile JaVale: 10.4% - 0.87 - 35th percentile Sabonis: 16.0% - 0.87 - 34th percentile Nurkic: 26.7% - 0.85 - 32nd percentile Poeltl: 10.4% - 0.84 - 31st percentile Vucevic: 17.4% - 0.84 - 30th percentile KAT: 15.6% - 0.84 - 29th percentile Gobert: 5% - 0.82 - 25th percentile (a bit surprising until I remember he gets a lot of lobs and catches at the rim rather than post-ups) I know Nurkic fans don't like it when I post numbers like this, but these are the numbers. This pretty closely matches what I've seen; passes the eyeball test, IMO. Nurk really is not good at posting up and it makes me wonder why people think he should be given more post-up opportunities maybe these number should be weighted by frequency or percentage of offense but I don't know how that could be done or even if it would be a valid gauge. And maybe, players like Aaron Gordon and John Collins shouldn't be on this list because they won't be posting up the same people C's post-up. Still, it's post-up offense Nurkic was worse last season in post-up; only in the 17th percentile. So he has 'improved' but his efficiency in post-up still generally sucks. he shouldn't be posting up as much as he is. He's much better in the PnR where he averages 1.19 ppp vs 0.85 in post-up. He's in the 68thmpercentile in PnR. Not elite but at least it's in the realm of decent efficiency I want Portland to re-sign Nurkic, if for no other reason that they don't have any good alternative. I don't want them to re-sign Nurkic for too much money and right now I'd draw the line around 15M/year. He is simply not the defensive force he was before he broke his leg, and that was nearly 3 years ago. It does seem to be a balancing act keeping Nurkic happy with his role on offense. But this season, as in past seasons, he ranks well above the median for C's in FGA rate and usage rate, but below the median in overall efficiency
Interesting stuff, but I'd really like to know what is our eFG% on possession where we go to a Nurk post up.
why do I always suspect sarcasm even when it's not apparent...am I too cynical? anyway, at the risk of being woooshed, why eFG%?
I think maybe Nurk has gotten a bit better at passing out of the post up. I have been noticing teams are starting to double him more when he gets the ball. He seems to be finding an open man more? I have no idea on how to actually define that so a stat could be attached but my overall feeling is they have done pretty well with the ball in his hands at the post.
This is why you post up. And why we should foster those skills in Nurk. If he can get to the level of consistently drawing a double then you have a unique/useful playoff weapon. People can go ahead and point to all of Nurk's obvious flaws but I'm going to go out on a limb and say terry did him no favors and Chauncey will only make him better.
speaking of post-up; Blazers as a team * Blazers rank 23rd in points/post-up * Blazers rank 26th in FG% * 10th in FT frequency * 19th in turnover frequency * 22nd in scoring frequency * 23rd in percentile some other play type: * Blazers are in the 97th percentile in PnR ball-handler. That ranks 2nd * the 62nd percentile in PnR roll-man which ranks 12th * 48th percentile in isolation which ranks 16th * 79th percentile in spot-up which ranks 7th looking at those numbers, considering how good Dame is in PnR and that the Blazers are elite at it, what they might need is a PnR roll-man, or two, that is elite as well
Easy to point the finger at Stotts on this but maybe there was a bit more to it? Terry originally had one of the very best Big man coaches in the league in Kim Hughes. He was fired for telling the truth in a situation regarding Aldridge by Olshey. Olshey was asked numerous times about replacing him and adding another coach to fill that void and always responded indignant about the issue. Then you have Nurk himself. Not only was he weak with the ball in his hands when he got here he has either been injured or out of sorts due to family and covid issues for the last 4 years. The first season of 20 games ended with the first broken leg issue. The second had 72 games where he was playing well and was happy but ended with a worse broken leg issue. Followed by 8 games the next season and a short 37 games due to broken wrist. Now Chauncey has him and with no Dame and no CJ and Nurk is a second option with Rogers who is also known to be a good big man coach. Seems like around here people love to make Terry Stotts a fall guy and that might be partially true but situations are also involved. Stotts was playing to get as many wins as possible in every season he was here. Nurk was injured a bunch and he still has not made it through a full season here without a major setback.
@Fairly-Hard nurk played 79 games in the 17/18 and was healthy in the 18/19 (72 games) when he broke his leg and hes healthy now too broken leg and broken wrist are not common injuries (landing on other players foot & knee to the wrist) and i dont think you can consider nurk to be injury prone due to those specific injuries he had two injuries in denver (knee surgery & ankle injury), which are common injuries and those are type of injuries due to which you can call a player injury prone
So you are saying he had two more "Common" injuries in Denver that affected his numbers as well as a two broken legs and a broken wrist that affected his numbers here? This is the very definition of "Injury Prone". Sorry. Lets see him make it a season without an injury? It would be nice to see that coincide with Lillard being healthy as well.
His low percentage has to be chalked up to his errant flippy shots, which I see him doing a lot less these days. When he try’s to get cute around the hoop he misses and doesn’t get calls. When he attacks strong his percentage is much higher and gets more calls. It’s obvious Billups has gotten him to listen and it’s paying off.
interesting theory, however his FT rate, by month: October .444 November .425 December .466 January.485 February .381 his FG% rate by month: October .537 November .614 December .533 January .510 February .491 his TS% (accounts for FT's), by month: October .596 November .660 December .585 January .559 February .549 statistically, I do not see the correlation you do. Kind of the opposite in fact since both his FG% and his TS% have steadily declined since November. I'd think if Billups was getting thru to him about shooting style and errant shots, those two trend-lines would be going the other direction his FT rate did climb steadily since November...until the 8 games in February kind of blew holes in the theory. Maybe he'll turn that back around in March. Again though, if his FT rate progression was due to taking higher percentage shots, his FG% and TS% would not have gone the opposite directions of his FT rates...IMO
