NBA draft "big board" top 10

Discussion in 'Portland Trail Blazers' started by blazerfan11, Apr 22, 2022.

  1. PCmor7

    PCmor7 Generational Poster

    Joined:
    Apr 29, 2014
    Messages:
    5,786
    Likes Received:
    8,798
    Trophy Points:
    113
    Occupation:
    Saying this for years
    That very well might be the case, too. Is Chauncey the type of coach who sees something he can work and make to fit his team's character rather than find someone of a certain character already?
     
    blazerkor likes this.
  2. blazerkor

    blazerkor Well-Known Member

    Joined:
    Sep 15, 2014
    Messages:
    14,008
    Likes Received:
    14,927
    Trophy Points:
    113
    Yeah, that is the question and I think with young guys that Chauncey might believe that he cant fit talent into his team's character but we don't really know at this point.
     
  3. e_blazer

    e_blazer Rip City Fan

    Joined:
    Sep 16, 2008
    Messages:
    23,284
    Likes Received:
    28,763
    Trophy Points:
    113
    Occupation:
    Consultant
    Location:
    Oregon City, OR
    There’s an interesting commentary on the NFL draft in today’s NY Times “The Morning” newsletter. A lot of it translates to the NBA draft and many other human decision-making endeavors:

    Fundamentally, N.F.L. teams tonight will be doing something that every employer does: choosing which workers to hire. A major difference is that the teams will have more information than most employers do. A hospital or manufacturer generally can’t study videotape and statistics documenting the record of job candidates.

    Yet even with all this information, teams can do a miserable job of predicting who the best players will be. “The track record is pretty dismal,” Richard Thaler, a Nobel laureate in economics who has studied the draft, told me.

    The confident Jets
    Consider this chart, which shows the quarterbacks picked in the draft’s first round four years ago, alongside their career touchdown totals:

    [​IMG]
    As you can see, there is little relationship between performance and draft order. Were the 2018 draft held again today, Josh Allen of the Buffalo Bills would almost certainly go first. Besides Allen and Lamar Jackson of the Baltimore Ravens, the other three might not even play much next season.

    It’s a common story: Tom Brady, the most successful player in N.F.L. history, was the 199th pick in 2000. Most top quarterbacks today — including Patrick Mahomes, Aaron Rodgers, Justin Herbert, Dak Prescott and Russell Wilson — were drafted after quarterbacks who haven’t done as well.

    Predicting performance is unavoidably hard, even in the country’s most popular form of mass entertainment, where executives can devote lavish resources to research. “There’s no crime in that,” Cade Massey, a University of Pennsylvania economist, said. “The crime is thinking you can predict it.”


    The real mistake that the executives make is hubris. They believe that they can forecast the future and design draft strategies based on their confidence. In 2018, for example, the New York Jets traded away four picks for the right to move up only three spots in the draft — to the third pick from the sixth. With that third pick, the Jets executives thought that they would draft a quarterback so great that he would be gone by the sixth pick.

    The quarterback they chose was Sam Darnold, who (as the chart above also shows) has been a disappointment. Imagine if the Jets had instead kept the sixth pick, taken Allen and also kept their other picks. It could have transformed the team.

    The most successful N.F.L. teams have adopted a version of this anti-Jets strategy. They have embraced the power of humility. The Dallas Cowboys of the 1990s and New England Patriots built Super Bowl winners by exchanging high picks for a larger number of lower picks. In recent seasons, the Los Angeles Rams have exchanged early picks — whose value league executives tend to exaggerate, as a 2005 academic paper by Massey and Thaler showed — for established players.

    With those players, the Rams won last season’s Super Bowl. The Jets failed to make the playoffs, for the 11th straight season.”
     
  4. Rastapopoulos

    Rastapopoulos Well-Known Member

    Joined:
    Oct 30, 2008
    Messages:
    37,580
    Likes Received:
    22,110
    Trophy Points:
    113
    Occupation:
    Ballin'
    Last edited: Apr 28, 2022
  5. Hoopguru

    Hoopguru Well-Known Member

    Joined:
    Sep 16, 2014
    Messages:
    19,725
    Likes Received:
    16,290
    Trophy Points:
    113
    Good points! Ive heard him several times during press interviews mention defense was going to be an important trait for his type of players. I doubt he'd have an issue with any of the top 4 players bigs and i agree he could work with a guy like Banchero.
     
  6. Rastapopoulos

    Rastapopoulos Well-Known Member

    Joined:
    Oct 30, 2008
    Messages:
    37,580
    Likes Received:
    22,110
    Trophy Points:
    113
    Occupation:
    Ballin'
    This is revisionist history. O'Neal was given time, he just never delivered. He even started for a stretch (injuries), I think.
    What this illustrates is that context matters. A player may genuinely look bad in one context, perhaps because of clashes with the coach, or imposter syndrome, and flourish elsewhere. Isiah Thomas did a lot to make Jermaine O'Neal - he completely believed in O'Neal (he had to - he'd bet the farm on him) and the nurturing paid off. Dunleavy was probably a bad coach for him, but also not in a situation to give him minutes when Grant and Rasheed (wasn't Gary Trent also there?) were healthy.

    O'Neal supposedly looked great in practice, though.
     
    oldmangrouch likes this.
  7. oldmangrouch

    oldmangrouch persona non grata

    Joined:
    Sep 22, 2008
    Messages:
    12,402
    Likes Received:
    6,323
    Trophy Points:
    113
    There was also the story that he sulked when asked to play center.
     
  8. Predator

    Predator The Godfather

    Joined:
    Sep 14, 2021
    Messages:
    2,727
    Likes Received:
    2,209
    Trophy Points:
    113
    Location:
    Dubai
  9. wizenheimer

    wizenheimer Well-Known Member

    Joined:
    Oct 19, 2008
    Messages:
    20,972
    Likes Received:
    32,865
    Trophy Points:
    113
    and 3 steps quicker
     
    oldmangrouch and Idog1976 like this.
  10. Idog1976

    Idog1976 Well-Known Member

    Joined:
    Jun 2, 2009
    Messages:
    6,686
    Likes Received:
    3,909
    Trophy Points:
    113
    Occupation:
    I look to the stars.
    Location:
    P-Town baby!
    Maybe if we are lucky Chet will go #1 overall and we will have moved up to the #2 and can correctly take Jabari Smith.
     
    oldmangrouch likes this.
  11. oldmangrouch

    oldmangrouch persona non grata

    Joined:
    Sep 22, 2008
    Messages:
    12,402
    Likes Received:
    6,323
    Trophy Points:
    113
     
  12. Boise Blazer

    Boise Blazer Thread Lightly

    Joined:
    Dec 12, 2008
    Messages:
    7,241
    Likes Received:
    2,556
    Trophy Points:
    113
    I just saw an article that said that the Seahawks were number one in draft value since 2012. While it would be harder to do with the NBA especially since there are fewer rounds it would be interesting to see. I imagine the Warriors would rank high.

     
  13. Rastapopoulos

    Rastapopoulos Well-Known Member

    Joined:
    Oct 30, 2008
    Messages:
    37,580
    Likes Received:
    22,110
    Trophy Points:
    113
    Occupation:
    Ballin'
    Well observed.
     

Share This Page