Rank the West & Vote where the Blazers finish

Discussion in 'Portland Trail Blazers' started by SharpesTriumph, Jul 26, 2022.

?

What position will the Blazers finish in the West?

  1. Top2

    6.8%
  2. 3

    4.1%
  3. 4

    13.5%
  4. 5

    14.9%
  5. 6

    28.4%
  6. 7

    12.2%
  7. 8

    9.5%
  8. 9

    8.1%
  9. 10

    2.7%
  10. lottery

    0 vote(s)
    0.0%
  1. PCmor7

    PCmor7 Generational Poster

    Joined:
    Apr 29, 2014
    Messages:
    5,740
    Likes Received:
    8,747
    Trophy Points:
    113
    Occupation:
    Saying this for years
    You point out something and give a reason that was more than suspect. I pointed out the problems with it. You came back and made the SAME CASE that already had been exposed as weak.

    You responded to me, and you responded in an absolute that turned out to be a bunch of numbers put together out of a certain group of statistics with built-in biases lacking context. All I did was respond that you were wrong and why you were wrong, but I didn't seek you out to impose my truth on you.

    Then you told me what to do. I'm not going to do that, so, if you're expecting that, you're going to be disappointed. I think your time might be better served upping your posting game and examining your skills at dialog or lack of same. That's your call, though. Just some advice.

    BTW, go back and read your hypocrisy sentence and reread my responses to you. I never told you not to listen to anyone else. I said metrics should only be PART of the overview but that there are other factors. Stop deliberately misstating what I wrote in an effort to feel less embarrassed.
     
  2. calvin natt

    calvin natt Confeve

    Joined:
    Jun 30, 2017
    Messages:
    7,520
    Likes Received:
    10,457
    Trophy Points:
    113
    Location:
    Portland Suburb
    You think other people are getting defensive over the Nuggets?
    And you haven’t seen a compelling reason to believe the Nuggets are better than Portland, but there have been reasons given you just don’t like them.
    Murray has missed a lot of time, but he is young and by all accounts is expected to be 100%. Lillard missed a lot of time too, and Nurkic before him, it happens. I think everyone is making the case based off of being healthy. Obviously if Murray and Porter are hurt they aren’t the same team.
     
  3. andalusian

    andalusian Season - Restarted

    Joined:
    Sep 24, 2008
    Messages:
    14,414
    Likes Received:
    13,349
    Trophy Points:
    113
    Location:
    San Marcos, CA
    Actually you did not. Your argument is that the eye test is best and maybe it is for some people, but it certainly is not for most of us regular fans, so I will take your word as questionable when comparing it against data.

    Next, you railed against the advanced defensive stats, which is fair enough as they are complicated and I for one am not a data scientist (I do work with one closely so I an very comfortable with data) so I am willing to accept that there might be a bias in these formulas .

    But, the argument made about DRTG is absolutely not the same. DRTG is the number of points scored on you per 100 possessions, it is as simple a stat as one can get. It is true that you can hide a bad defender on a team with many good defenders and his DRTG will be good, but you expect all or most other defenders on that team (being players on the court with him) to have as good or better DRTG in this case (simple math). If the Nuggets have an elite DRTG when Jokic plays and he has the best DRTG on the team, he is, by definition, not the weak link that is hidden on that team - so there is no argument to be made that his simple defensive stats are masked by good defenders around him - it is just impossible in this case. Another argument that can be made about DRTG is that the sample size is small. It is not in Jokic's case, he played 34 minutes pe game for 74 regular season games last year, that's over 2400 minutes, if we look at a simple binomial distribution 300 is the magic number usually used for comfortable margin of error - his minutes are way above that.

    There is no question, what so ever about these very simple stats. The Nuggets were a very good defensive unit with Jokic on the floor last year, and there was no player on the roster better than him given these very basic stats. Once you have these 2 basic statistics - there is no argument that he is a defensive liability, he just can't be, that's just basic math. You can argue that he is not the best defender in the league or even close to it, but a defensive liability, that's impossible given the facts.

    Then, you add the words of people that did call him a defensive liability in the past and tell you that he no longer is, and I prefer to believe the simple math (it is irrefutable here), what people that know about defense say and what my eye tells me over what your eye tells you.

    There is nothing hypocritical about what I said. It was cynicism about you telling me not to believe anyone and telling me to believe you because you watched the game.
     
  4. PCmor7

    PCmor7 Generational Poster

    Joined:
    Apr 29, 2014
    Messages:
    5,740
    Likes Received:
    8,747
    Trophy Points:
    113
    Occupation:
    Saying this for years
    Yes. I mean, here you are again still trying to discredit my OPINION that the Blazers will be better this year. I said your opinion is valid and so is mine. I can only see a reason to carry on the conversation beyond that as you feeling a need to defend the Nuggets. How would you interpret it?

    Well, to be fair, I've given reasons I don't like them. Are you going to make the argument that Jokic is an elite defensive player, too? I mean, you said the Nuggets have all this star power over the Blazers. I asked you why their results are so Blazer like. You didn't respond to that. Instead, you just jumped on me again. OK. That doesn't look like you thought out your argument too well, but, like that other guy, that reflects on you, I'd be happy if you left me out of it.

    I addressed this in my last post, so I don't know why I need to address it again, but I will.

    Murray hasn't come back yet. Murray's injury wasn't an abdominal tear. Murray destroyed his knee. Players coming back from that type of injury often aren't the same and almost never are immediately the same. Murray wasn't at or to be fair even near Dame's level when he got hurt. He was a very good player on the rise. If you want to believe "all accounts" (whatever those are, you didn't cite anything) or presume because he's young he'll just be fine, I think that's unwise, but have at it. Like Andalusian, I'm not seeking you out looking to devalue your opinion, so have at it.

    And Porter's missed 173 games in four years as a pro. Why should anyone assume he's going to be healthy? Heck, one could assume Nas is going to score 18 ppg this year, but it doesn't mean there's a good reason to assume that.

    Finally, I go back to this: The Nuggets have won have won 50 games just once in the last nine years even when they had all these guys and more available. Last year they were seeded sixth and got trounced in the opening round of the playoffs. They didn't add anyone to the roster who someone can reasonably expect to boost them to that next step. Therefore, I'm not going to do it. I'm going to look at what they are and what they have been and go on that. If you want to do otherwise, do it. I'm not going to chase you around the board to give your opinion credibility it hasn't earned on the subject.
     
  5. PCmor7

    PCmor7 Generational Poster

    Joined:
    Apr 29, 2014
    Messages:
    5,740
    Likes Received:
    8,747
    Trophy Points:
    113
    Occupation:
    Saying this for years
    You really must feel belittled because someone doesn't take your absolute on RAPTOR as an absolute. Yeesh.

    You really need to go back and read what I wrote, because the moment I disagreed with you, you fell off the deep end.

    Where did I say the eye test is best? I think you're undervaluing it. I think I made clear, whether you want to see it or not, that metrics are only part of the picture and need to be viewed in context. Actually seeing what the Nuggets do defensively and how good Jokic is when he gets isolated against a quicker player or has to close out on a corner 3 are part of the equation, TOO. Never said they were the only thing, but they aren't nothing.

    And you keep wanting to come back to metrics which is such a waste of your time because I am never going to be the all-metrics guy you are and apparently want everyone to be.

    There are a lot of different metrics that measure the same thing in different ways. They all have their biases built into them and none of them, so far as I can see, adequately measure a player in a vacuum because, guess what, THEY DON'T PLAY THIS GAME IN A VACUUM. But the point still stands that when you choose to pick one metric that's going to be your Bible, you choose to ignore the value and validity of other systems that I guess in analogy would be the Koran or Torah or Tao.

    I've already effectively refuted the rest of your post more than once earlier and explained why. You can like it or not like it, but doubling down on the same weak sauce doesn't make your stuff taste any better.

    My advice to you is if you want to disagree with someone, first, don't act like your opinion is irrefutable and absolute. Second, don't repeatedly follow them around because they think the opinion you say comes from other people but which you advocate doggedly (although not Sly Poker Doggedly) isn't very well reasoned.

    Now, can you just take your pie charts and spreadsheets and talk about them to some who thinks they are as infallible as you? Because I don't, and, for the foreseeable future, I'm not going to. All the stuff you've posted has built-in flaws that I pointed out in like my second or third reply to you, and it's stupid that you're following me around for a second day trying to gain some validation that's not coming.
     
  6. PCmor7

    PCmor7 Generational Poster

    Joined:
    Apr 29, 2014
    Messages:
    5,740
    Likes Received:
    8,747
    Trophy Points:
    113
    Occupation:
    Saying this for years
    This is goofy. This thread asked for people's predictions. Some are clearly over the top. Yet I keep being asked to prove by faceless posters that I have to validate my opinion to them, when they can't even validate their own opinions.

    It's a Blazers board and freaking opinions and I got two guys so hot under the collar that they don't like where I picked the Nuggets that they're going to go 15 rounds with me about it. Too funny.
     
  7. andalusian

    andalusian Season - Restarted

    Joined:
    Sep 24, 2008
    Messages:
    14,414
    Likes Received:
    13,349
    Trophy Points:
    113
    Location:
    San Marcos, CA
    My argument was, and continues to be, that when ranking the west, Jokic was not a defensive liability last year. You can go on whatever tangent you want, I am out of this nonsense. I believe the raw numbers (DRTG), I believe my eye test over yours and I believe people like Draymond Green. The fact that advanced formulas like RAPTOR also agree are just the cherry on top. Enjoy the rest of the thread.
     
  8. THE HCP

    THE HCP NorthEastPortland'sFinest

    Joined:
    Sep 16, 2008
    Messages:
    65,691
    Likes Received:
    51,884
    Trophy Points:
    113
    Location:
    N.E.P.
    Right on. Question, are you questioning if Dame will come back healthy when making your predictions. And we in NO way have the same amount of talent as we did two years ago where as they have more than they did two years ago in my opinion.
     
    PCmor7 likes this.
  9. PCmor7

    PCmor7 Generational Poster

    Joined:
    Apr 29, 2014
    Messages:
    5,740
    Likes Received:
    8,747
    Trophy Points:
    113
    Occupation:
    Saying this for years
    I don't have a lot of question about Dame coming back healthy because of the type of injury and Dame's track record bouncing back from adversity. The question is absolutely valid, but I think his chances of coming back and playing at a high level more quickly are much higher than Murray because of the nature of their respective injuries and Dame's history.

    I'd agree with you the Blazers aren't as talented, but I think this is a differently and better constructed team it was two years ago, also. I think the coaching approach has improved. The Blazers aren't trying to just play one side of the floor. I think the Blazers are deeper than they were.

    I think the Nuggets are slightly better than they were. I wouldn't agree they've made significant improvement and I think their record bears that out. That's just my opinion, though.
     
    THE HCP likes this.
  10. Pinwheel1

    Pinwheel1 Well-Known Member

    Joined:
    Oct 13, 2008
    Messages:
    21,007
    Likes Received:
    13,564
    Trophy Points:
    113
    SlyPokerDog likes this.
  11. HailBlazers

    HailBlazers RipCity

    Joined:
    Nov 11, 2008
    Messages:
    18,843
    Likes Received:
    15,508
    Trophy Points:
    113
    Location:
    PDX
  12. riverman

    riverman Writing Team

    Joined:
    Nov 15, 2013
    Messages:
    66,303
    Likes Received:
    64,441
    Trophy Points:
    113
    Walker and Winslow get zero ink when folks talk about the Blazers roster...baffles the mind given what both these guys have shown in short sample sizes as Blazers that they are never included in the breakdowns of the team yet a guy like Sharpe is.
     
  13. THE HCP

    THE HCP NorthEastPortland'sFinest

    Joined:
    Sep 16, 2008
    Messages:
    65,691
    Likes Received:
    51,884
    Trophy Points:
    113
    Location:
    N.E.P.
    Do you think he will impact us either in a good or bad way this season. I believe he is a non factor.
     
  14. HailBlazers

    HailBlazers RipCity

    Joined:
    Nov 11, 2008
    Messages:
    18,843
    Likes Received:
    15,508
    Trophy Points:
    113
    Location:
    PDX
    I believe he's more NBA ready than Shaedon and plays a position of need.
     
  15. THE HCP

    THE HCP NorthEastPortland'sFinest

    Joined:
    Sep 16, 2008
    Messages:
    65,691
    Likes Received:
    51,884
    Trophy Points:
    113
    Location:
    N.E.P.
    Good point.
     
    42N8Bounce and SlyPokerDog like this.
  16. Wade Garrett

    Wade Garrett Exactly right.

    Joined:
    Mar 25, 2019
    Messages:
    1,971
    Likes Received:
    3,507
    Trophy Points:
    113
    OK..OK..OK...
    Here goes....
    Damian Lillard will win MVP and the Portland TrailBlazers will be the surprise team in the league.
    They will finish 2nd in the West, and lose to the Clips in the WCF.
    Look for a breakout season from my newly anointed fav player....Trendon Watford.
    Side note: Sharpe will be a benchwarmer this year due to the outstanding contributions of Hart/Winslow.
    There.
     
  17. Fairly-Hard

    Fairly-Hard Former Member Gone New!

    Joined:
    May 2, 2021
    Messages:
    9,062
    Likes Received:
    7,410
    Trophy Points:
    113
    Location:
    Currently the apartment in the Moda
    Sounds good to me.
     
  18. Phatguysrule

    Phatguysrule Well-Known Member

    Joined:
    Dec 31, 2008
    Messages:
    13,222
    Likes Received:
    11,303
    Trophy Points:
    113
    I think we all pretty much begged for the sale to Uncle Phil, right? Does that count as signing up?
     
    SharpeScooterShooter likes this.
  19. HailBlazers

    HailBlazers RipCity

    Joined:
    Nov 11, 2008
    Messages:
    18,843
    Likes Received:
    15,508
    Trophy Points:
    113
    Location:
    PDX
    Stolen from RealGM/ESPN

    Contenders:
    1. Phoenix Suns: 56-26
    2. Golden State Warriors: 55-27
    3. Denver Nuggets: 53-29
    4. Memphis Grizzlies: 51-31
    5. LA Clippers: 50-32
    6. Dallas Mavericks: 49-33

    Play-in:
    7. Minnesota Timberwolves: 49-33
    8. New Orleans Pelicans: 43-39
    9. Los Angeles Lakers: 42-40
    10. Portland Trail Blazers: 35-47
    (Note: Dallas finished percentage points ahead of Minnesota in our panel's projections.)

    Bottom:
    11. Sacramento Kings: 34-48
    12. Utah Jazz: 26-56
    13. Oklahoma City Thunder: 25-57
    14. San Antonio Spurs: 24-58
    15. Houston Rockets: 22-60

    https://www.espn.com/nba/insider/st...-state-warriors-every-western-conference-team
     
    SlyPokerDog likes this.
  20. THE HCP

    THE HCP NorthEastPortland'sFinest

    Joined:
    Sep 16, 2008
    Messages:
    65,691
    Likes Received:
    51,884
    Trophy Points:
    113
    Location:
    N.E.P.
    BINGO! Nailed it. 10th in the west.
     

Share This Page