Draft thoughts in light of recent events...

Discussion in 'Golden State Warriors' started by wtwalker77, Feb 25, 2005.

  1. wtwalker77

    wtwalker77 JBB JustBBall Member

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    Okay, Mullin decided to not take my advice and deal for Baron in the offseason, he gave up less talent, but he created a bigger cap problem for the team. In light of them moves, let's talk some draft...

    If I were Mullin, here's how I'd look at the roster when preparing for the draft. Three starting positions are set:

    pg: Baron
    sg: Jason
    pf: Murph

    The two question marks are now small forward and center, each have their own set of problems.

    At sf, Mullin will have Dunleavy and Skita for another year before he has to decide who to keep. I'm betting he takes the entire year, since both are in the same boat of having incredible potential, but haven't found a way to turn it into production (Dunleavy can certainly produce more, but I still feel Skita has the most potential). Both have pretty similar games, though I still believe that Skita's eventual position will be pf once he fills out, I'm sure Mullin is just looking at him as a sf. The best part of this situation is if the new CBA shortens the max length of a contract, it's less of a risk to take a flier on one of 'em.

    At c, I believe Foyle is just the place holder for Biedrins (it still baffles me why Mullin gave Foyle such a long contract, if that's what he had to do to match Orlando's offer, he should have just let him walk), so while he'll eventually be moved, he can't be traded until Biedrins is ready to step in. Of course the question marks here surround whether Foyle can consistently produce and whether Biedrins will ever develop. Of the two, I feel a lot better about Biedrins' chances to develop into something special than Foyle's chances at becoming a consistent 10/10/2.5 guy.

    So what does this all mean for the draft? I think Mullin will be looking for a low post scoring center, but the sticking point is it has to be a CENTER, not a power forward. The only guy that comes close to what Mullin is looking for is Bogut. But I have the same problem with Bogut now as I did before: Murph is your pf, Biedrins was your draft pick last year, why draft a big man (and looking at the recent history of big men taken high in the lottery it is CERTAINLY not a lock that Bogut is a can't miss prospect) and create a log jam at pf/c. I guess with the talent Mullin has just acquired, the short answer is, "well, he's created talent log jams at every other position..."

    The other thing Mullin will be looking at is a lock down defender at sf. Getting Baron means he's doesn't need nearly as much scoring out of his sf. If Baron is healthy, I could see Richardson getting 23-24 ppg next year, Baron getting 20-21, and Murph getting 16-17. If you can get 60 ppg out of three of your starters, you really don't need the other two to average double figures a la the Spurs. But if Mullin and Montgomery decide to have the Warriors be a running team, having that fourth scorer in the starting line up certainly helps, a la the Suns and Kings.

    But, just like before, I think the most likely option is for the Warriors to trade the pick. They have enough young talent at the two question mark positions, that they don't need to draft another. They're better off trading the pick, along with some of that young talent for either another young player on his rookie deal, or a vet with a reasonable contract.


    <u>So if they keep the pick, here's how I see things:</u>

    If the pick is top 1 or 2: draft Bogut and walk away happy.

    If the pick is 3 or lower (or 2 with Bogut off the board): there isn't a single center or small forward that will be available here that would fill the Warriors low post scoring or wing defending needs. So they should package the pick with either Foyle or Fisher along with one of the young pieces, to upgrade either center or small forward.


    <u>If they deal the pick, here are the type of guys I think Mullin will be looking for:</u>

    At center, the only real option is Eddy Curry, but the problems with Curry are two fold. 1) There are still a ton of questions about whether he's got the head or heart to be a player in this league. 2) Curry is a RFA this offseason and is looking to sign a big deal, it'd be a mistake for the Warriors to sign him to an extension until they know what the terms of the new CBA are.

    At small forward, there aren't a great deal of options that are better than Pietrus. About the only guys I can think of who would fit the bill is someone like Andre Igoudala or James Posey. They're both terrific defenders, but they're also further along offensively than Pietrus and Iguodala has an additional year on his rookie deal. For an Iguodala deal to work, I'd say it would have to be something like Dunleavy and the pick for Igoudala, Olie, and a future Philly pick.

    A deal for Posey is unlikely, since Posey isn't worth Dunleavy and a pick, and the Griz also have a log jam at sf. So it would have to be part of a larger deal, but I have no idea what that deal would look like.

    I dunno, these recent moves make it really tough to predict anything that's going to happen in the future. I will say this though, the more I think about it, the one thing that seems clear is that I don't think the Warriors will keep their pick.
     
  2. goldenstatefan

    goldenstatefan JBB JustBBall Member

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    Skita's contract ends after the season...Denver didn't pick up his option.

    I'm still reading the rest, just wanted to make mention of that.
     
  3. GSWScruff

    GSWScruff JBB JustBBall Member

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    Nice assessment. I agree, it looks like it is either draft Bogut or trade the pick. There is a slight possibility that Andriuskevicius or Taft could really show that they are capable of playing center next year, but I don't think that's going to happen.

    Skita is an UFA at the end of this season so I really don't see him sticking around. There will be plenty of options for us at the 3, though, either through trades not involving the pick or through free agency. I think if the pick is moved, then it really needs to be moved for a big man, because it is so difficult to upgrade at center.
     
  4. wtwalker77

    wtwalker77 JBB JustBBall Member

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    whoops, sorry guys, you're right, Skita is a UFA this year.
     
  5. GSWScruff

    GSWScruff JBB JustBBall Member

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    But we do have a one year option for White. Although a lot of the Denver fans really seem to despise him and were glad to be rid of him. I don't know, he can really score, but he isn't worth it if he is going to screw up the team chemistry. We can always pick up a good swingman with the MLE if we need one.
     
  6. Custodianrules2

    Custodianrules2 Cohan + Rowell = Suck

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    Wtwalker, good post. I would not mind trading the pick either if we could not get that covetted big man with post skills or a veteran 3 who is skilled from behind the arc and on the defensive end... I don't see us keeping a #5 pick when it has more value to other teams looking to rebuild and it costs the team that much more just to train and develop them... Just the amount of time it takes to get these guys to play well when they're so unpolished could leave Baron Davis and Jrich extremely impatient. You did mention small forward. Some picks for small forward have me thinking of 2 candidates from the Grizzlies: James Posey, Mike Miller (not a defensive player but a secondary ballhandler that could excel with the catch and shoot type of game. I think he'll be better with two stars already on the team). And then there's Jumaine Jones who is not a FA but LA might send us some players in a package of the #5 overall and Derek Fisher. JJ is kind of a in-between player who can play both forward spots, but he's explosive scorer and he's an aggressive defender. Barnett even gave him props when it came to players that can really rail it in from the corner. So I guess you're right it all depends on what we want to do because we need that 3 point specialist that can keep the defenses honest and then we also need a secondary ballhandler to push and initiate fastbreaks (either Dunleavy or somebody off the bench). If we're more of a defensive half court team, then we need that big man that has a post game, a guy that can bury shots from the corner a la Jumaine Jones, Shane Battier, James Posey, etc that can also play defense. Problem is Jrich isn't that hot of a ballhandler to really be that secondary point guard on the team. I'd rather have Joe Johnson since he's an effective corner shooter and can play all backcourt spots as well as forward. I guess Dunleavy will have to do.
     
  7. GSWScruff

    GSWScruff JBB JustBBall Member

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    Hey, the Chronicle is saying that we traded Dallas' 2007 first round pick to Denver, which means we still have their pick for this year.

    Channing Frye from 'zona could be an interesting guy to keep our eye on:
    http://nbadraft.net/profiles/channingfrye.asp

    He doesn't exactly have "late first round steal" written all over him, but he should be mostly NBA ready and could compliment our team.
     
  8. Warriorfansnc93

    Warriorfansnc93 JBB JustBBall Member

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    Here is what I would do if I was Mullin. If we got a high pick like top 5, I would try to get these players in this order. For Centers...

    Bogut:Biedrens is not a lock yet either so if he washes out we have a back up plan. If both work out, we have a twin towers combo ala Duncan/Robinson. I am not sold on Murphy. If both worked out we could trade Murphy for someone else.

    Taft:I am not sold on him yet, but he does show glimpses of a nice inside game like Dampier except he has better hands. At the same time, he may not be as a big as Damp or as goo of a shot blocker, but he is still young. The most important thing is he has a solid frame to build upon.

    For SF...

    Hackim Warrick:He is everything Dunleavy is not. At the same time his weaknesses are Dunleavy's strengths.

    That SF from OSU: My wife is from OK so we catch alot of OU, OSU games and there is this guy from OSU that is a freak! OSU is one of the best teams in the nation and he is a big reason why. He is very strong and has an NBA ready body like Lebron had in high school. He makes Warrick look like a twig.

    If I had a choice at this point, I would say go for those 2 centers. Or try to trade the pick for an established big man like the guy from the Clippers or Curry. Maybe that guy Andrewssddf, whatever his name is. You know what they say... Yu cant teach 7'3"...
     
  9. goldenstatefan

    goldenstatefan JBB JustBBall Member

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    Is Taft really a center prospect? NBAdraft.net has him listed at 6'10, and supposedly he's been underachieving a lot this year...(Draftcity dropped him to next year's mock draft). He seems like more a pf, and so do Splitter and Vazquez.

    After Bogut I might prefer Andriuskivicius because he doesn't have to develop on the Warriors' roster. The W's can leave him over in Europe for a couple years. They'd just need to get him in the weight room. A 7'3 center prospect, supposedly a more atheletic version of Ilgauskaus. And he's around the same age as Biedrins.

    Btw, if Andriuskivicius stays in the draft it probably means he's gotten a guarantee.
     
  10. Custodianrules2

    Custodianrules2 Cohan + Rowell = Suck

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    <div class="quote_poster">Quoting Warriorfansnc93:</div><div class="quote_post">Here is what I would do if I was Mullin. If we got a high pick like top 5, I would try to get these players in this order. For Centers...

    Bogut:Biedrens is not a lock yet either so if he washes out we have a back up plan. If both work out, we have a twin towers combo ala Duncan/Robinson. I am not sold on Murphy. If both worked out we could trade Murphy for someone else.

    Taft:I am not sold on him yet, but he does show glimpses of a nice inside game like Dampier except he has better hands. At the same time, he may not be as a big as Damp or as goo of a shot blocker, but he is still young. The most important thing is he has a solid frame to build upon.

    For SF...

    Hackim Warrick:He is everything Dunleavy is not. At the same time his weaknesses are Dunleavy's strengths.

    That SF from OSU: My wife is from OK so we catch alot of OU, OSU games and there is this guy from OSU that is a freak! OSU is one of the best teams in the nation and he is a big reason why. He is very strong and has an NBA ready body like Lebron had in high school. He makes Warrick look like a twig.

    If I had a choice at this point, I would say go for those 2 centers. Or try to trade the pick for an established big man like the guy from the Clippers or Curry. Maybe that guy Andrewssddf, whatever his name is. You know what they say... Yu cant teach 7'3"...</div>
    All good points, warriorsfansnc93. We definitely need an intimidating big man with moves and something to plug in the gaping hole in our defense that is our frontcourt without sacrificing ballhandlers and passers. I would advocate to trade the pick if we can find somebody that's a capable veteran center who can play both ends. It could be Chris Mihm or Mark Blount or Illgauskus for lower picks. I'm not sold on Illgauskus on defense, his foot injuries, or the inability to go out and run with him on the floor, but he is an allstar and he is 7'2" and can score in the paint and from 20 feet out while intimidating with his long reach. Blount is solid, nothing special and kind of high priced during that crazy offseason where we signed Foyle for ridiculous amounts. Chris Mihm is a promising prospect we could trade for, but probably not worth the Lakers #1 and giving up our #5 (because we don't know exactly who will declare for the draft yet). Then there's guys we missed out on last year like Joel "the thrilla" Przybilla who could have been signed for a reasonable price. He's big and he seems to be a great prospect for being that 7'1" defensive monster who can bang in the paint and block shots and slam it down. I mean with all the lack of true centers in the league, you can understand how hyped up a guy like Yao Ming can be because there are hardly any good centers that have all the fundamentals there. (Plus I have to remind myself before I pick on Yao Ming is that the guy never has an offseason to rest his feet and knees and get stronger. He's China's indentured servant and that'll probably lead to him getting constantly injured and slow to progressing his upper body strength.) So Andrisvicius--whateverthef--, the 7'3 Lithuanian dude, could be a cool piece to add to our roster, that we would never have to play him much. All we do is keep him there and teams will ask about him and that could possibly land us an important inside player. Who knows?
     
  11. REREM

    REREM JBB JustBBall Member

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    Andri-whatever scares me,getting the next Shawn Bradley would be a drag,it seems that from Pottsylvania to Transylvania there are a dozen or more very tall,very young guys,6-10 and up,and none is a lock to be more than just another bench ornament-though there also is a chance one is a future standout. We don't know what to expect yet from 4 or 5 of the guys on the current roster or which underclassmen will declare. Unless we are in a spot to get Bogut,a trade down may be the best option with a best available player approach. Besides Bogut I see these guys as likely good picks at the point in the draft where they seem to be getting rated---Danny Granger,Sheldon williams,Saleem Stoudamire,Ike Diogu,Channing Frye,Lawrence
     
  12. Custodianrules2

    Custodianrules2 Cohan + Rowell = Suck

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    <div class="quote_poster">Quoting goldenstatefan:</div><div class="quote_post">Is Taft really a center prospect? NBAdraft.net has him listed at 6'10, and supposedly he's been underachieving a lot this year...(Draftcity dropped him to next year's mock draft). He seems like more a pf, and so do Splitter and Vazquez.

    After Bogut I might prefer Andriuskivicius because he doesn't have to develop on the Warriors' roster. The W's can leave him over in Europe for a couple years. They'd just need to get him in the weight room. A 7'3 center prospect, supposedly a more atheletic version of Ilgauskaus. And he's around the same age as Biedrins.

    Btw, if Andriuskivicius stays in the draft it probably means he's gotten a guarantee.</div>
    Andriuskivicius was hyped up as last year's number 1 pick for mock 2005 with Bogut a little bit further down. Of course mock drafts don't mean smack because you never know who is declaring and whose stock is rising or falling, but he's one of the guys that scouts always have their eyes on. Too bad we had to get the #5 this year because I think what we need (small forward/center) is at least one or two drafts away. Figures.... this always happens to us. We're not high enough to secure a chance at Bogut and we're not in a draft that has guard/small forwards a plenty. It's just power forward/small forwards. I hate those types of tweener small forwards.
     
  13. REREM

    REREM JBB JustBBall Member

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    There have been several cases where the team that won the lottery was not the worst record team,though the odds and the curse of Wilt seem against the W's getting lucky. The warriors now have several prospects to thaw out and take stock of,maybe even put in a game so they get some job skills. Just watching college ball,I see a number of guys with plenty of real skills,and looking at the stats,a lot of those same players have a track record that provides some clue as to who is able to do what. Guys who SHOULD have been dominating games and rolling up primo stats---but don't, are no more "big upside" than high risk. I agree that C and SF are where we most want a boost,but the key is to get a quality player we know will not be a dud,and who has the potential to continue to get better. i really have pushed Sheldon Williams,and I don't know if he will declare or what the consensus is on his draft position. I see him,Foyle ,Murphy and,I hope Biedrens as a 4-5 group that will give a strong rebounding-shotblocking game inside,with overall,good offense. If the in-the-paint crew is dominating the boards and holding their own on D,a classic C isn't essential. Since its early to say who is coming out or which of our new guys are keepers, Warrick might be our guy or we might trade down. I do see the late round 1,early round 2 area as where this draft has good value. Saleem Stoudamire is a guy with freaky range,Chris Thomas and Aaron Miles can be good point G depth. Lawrence Roberts appears to be getting undrrated as is Jason Maxiel,who is a tweener but a guy who brings a lot of D. In the wierd world of Cap-ball,under-rated and underpaid can be the path to success
     
  14. goldenstatefan

    goldenstatefan JBB JustBBall Member

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    <div class="quote_poster">Quoting REREM:</div><div class="quote_post">Andri-whatever scares me,getting the next Shawn Bradley would be a drag,it seems that from Pottsylvania to Transylvania there are a dozen or more very tall,very young guys,6-10 and up,and none is a lock to be more than just another bench ornament-though there also is a chance one is a future standout. We don't know what to expect yet from 4 or 5 of the guys on the current roster or which underclassmen will declare. Unless we are in a spot to get Bogut,a trade down may be the best option with a best available player approach. Besides Bogut I see these guys as likely good picks at the point in the draft where they seem to be getting rated---Danny Granger,Sheldon williams,Saleem Stoudamire,Ike Diogu,Channing Frye,Lawrence</div>

    If Andriuskevicius was an American I might share your fears in terms of the comparisons to Bradley, because most American big men have a severe lack of schooling in terms of fundamentals, etc. That's why I've liked Bogut so much, and he's played two years of college ball so he's already adjusted to the US style of basketball. But he's probably out of reach.

    With Andiuskivicius he still has to develop, both his game and his body. But the word on him is that he has very good athleticism and coordination, is a good passer and can handle the ball. Though he's very skinny, supposedly he's not afraid of contact...in sort of a Pau Gasol type of way. The biggest problem I can see with him is that he needs time to develop, and he'd get more of an opportunity to do so - in games - in Europe. It will take more patience than most Pistons fans have shown with Milicic. But look what a player like Nenad Krstic has brought to the Nets this year after staying for a couple of years in Europe.

    I'd be willing to wait 2 or 3 years for a chance to see Andriuskivicius and Biedrins on the court together. Two legit 7-footers that can play in the post, and can actually play basketball...it would be a true rarity in the NBA.

    I like Shelden Williams. He can come in and play right away, and even though he's not very tall he has a good frame, plays physical, and comes out of Duke. But I'm not sure he's coming out this year, and if he does he'll probably be towards at the bottom of the lottery. The Warriors would have to trade down to get him.

    The question is: are the Warriors really close enough to where they want to be for it to be worth it to trade down for Williams - who can contribute his rookie year, but has limited overall potential - rather than showing some patience for a few years down the line?

    Granted, nobody's job is compeltely secure, and it takes a lot for a basketball organization to use two consecutive lottery picks on prospects whose entire value is based on "potential"...but Mullin seems to have been given a lot of room to work from Cohen, and he's shown more interest in bringing in international players than most execs.

    As far as Frye, he has some talent but he's 6'11 and skinny. Some reports I've read question whether he can really play the four or the five in the NBA. I'd prefer leaving potential tweeners like him, Roberts and Gomes for teams like the Knicks.
     
  15. .cabangbang

    .cabangbang BBW Member

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    I think during this year's draft the Warriors should go after Raymond Felton and try to move Fisher. That way we can do something like

    PG: Raymond Felton/ Baron Davis/ Mike Dunleavy
    SG: Baron Davis/ Mickael Pietrus/ Rodney White
    SF: Jason Richardson/ Rodney White/ Mickael Pietrus/ Zarko Cabarkapa
    PF: Mike Dunleavy/ Zarko Cabarkapa/ Nikoloz Tskitishvlil/ Andris Biedrins
    C: Troy Murphy/ Adonal Foyle/Andris Biedrins/ Nikoloz Tskitishvlil
     
  16. CohanHater

    CohanHater JBB JustBBall Member

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    I think we will swap picks with New Orleans in the case that we get the 1st pick.
     
  17. .cabangbang

    .cabangbang BBW Member

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    ^I'm not sure. I just hope we can get Felton somehow or Chris Paul.
     
  18. Custodianrules2

    Custodianrules2 Cohan + Rowell = Suck

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    Playing Jrich out of position probably isn't a good idea and BDiddy is less likely to be Steve Francis now that he's got better scoring options than New Orleans at his disposal, especially since Jrich is a go-to guy in Oakland and Dunleavy is showing signs he can step up his game (just not at small forward).
     
  19. hipokrat_x(LV)

    hipokrat_x(LV) JBB JustBBall Member

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    So far I have seen only one game with Andriuskevicius, but I kind of liked what I saw. I think that he is best long term investment that is avaivable there. The best thing about him is that he plays at highest posible level in Europe - Eurolegue (next best league after NBA), and he gets his solid 10 minutes to play there. He is playing in his hometown team, which is known in europe as one of the best basketball schools. 50% of the team stock belongs to Sabonis himselfe, and there are rumors sometimes that hi is working with him individually. So far he has very good conditions to develop, like Biedrins, Darko and other euros did not had. I think that he migth enter the NBA even after one year in Europe.
     
  20. GSWScruff

    GSWScruff JBB JustBBall Member

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    <div class="quote_poster">Quoting custodianrules2:</div><div class="quote_post">Dunleavy is showing signs he can step up his game (just not at small forward).</div>I don't know, I think he can do fine at small forward. He just needs to continue to play like an actual forward, and not a third guard. I like him operating from the high block when the situation presents itself, and he can easily do that as a 3.
     

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