Predict The Draft Picks (+ Jrich23's offseason preview)

Discussion in 'Golden State Warriors' started by .cabangbang, Apr 23, 2005.

  1. Zhone

    Zhone JBB JustBBall Member

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    Well, in the end, Nailon was a good 2nd round pick and a "success" despite only playing a few seasons, never averaging over 10 points a game, getting out of the league for a few seasons, and being on 10 day contracts. Nailon is the kind of player you expect out of the second round.

    And, I'm going to use this as a segue back into the topic which is getting horribly off-track: Predicting the draft picks. I've been doing more research on possibly 2nd round draft picks since we have 2, the 39th and 42nd. At least two of the guys I've mentioned are likely to be available, but here are a few more highlights:

    Tyler Coppenrath
    Projected as a late 2nd rounder, the 6'9", 250 lb Coppenrath is a top college scorer and rebounder. Not athletic, but he's smart, a hard worker, knows how to position himself for rebounds on both ends of the floor, and he makes his living with the midrange shots. Nailon-like! Maybe a poor man's Troy Murphy?

    Lawrence Roberts
    Another 6'9" forward with good footwork, a good midrange shot. He's even above average in terms of athleticism and agility. Fundamentally sound, he's got great footwork and hands, and he's a great rebounder. Defensively, otherwise, though, he's not a great shotblocker and doesn't seem to be much of a banger or hustler. Might be worth a shot if he drops to the middle of the 2nd round for us. Kind of like Marc Jackson (yet another 2nd round pick), back when he was drafted.
     
  2. Run BJM

    Run BJM Heavy lies the crown. Staff Member Global Moderator

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    You're right, backj on track. Here are my 2nd rounders:

    40. Nate Robinson-5'8 PG- This guy is an athlete. He can dunk at 5'8 and reportedly has a 40 inch vert jump. From what I've read he is a scoring PG but he is also probably the quickest guy in the NCAA. I've read that he is also known to tip in a good amount of shots. I pick this guy because I loved Boykins when he was here and while this guy isnt a pure PG like Boykins, he provides a spark off the bench. He would also be able to stay in front of a player like Tony Parker or A.I.

    42. Ryan Gomes- SF 6'7- I just started reading up on this guy and am beginning to love him. He has "NBA- calibur footwork" and is obviously a good low post threat at SF. He also has a good mid-range shot and is 33% from the NCAA 3 line. He is 87% from the charity stripe but supposedly is an average or slightly above average athlete. He doesn't get many assists but no one on his team (Providence) averages more than 11 points so that doesnt help. He plays tough D but isn't at all a shot blocking threat and is "normally within 10 feet of the basket"

    This sounds odd coming from me because i always stress defense and athleticism and these guys either arent very athletic or not a great defender but you cant really expect much form the second round in this draft.
     
  3. Run BJM

    Run BJM Heavy lies the crown. Staff Member Global Moderator

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    I also forgot to mention that i think Baron and Fish can improve Robinson's PG skills. Also want to mention that NBA Draft.net has Gomes going as the second guy in the second round but Draftcity has him at 46 so im not entirly sure where he's going but NBA Draft.net seems less accurate (Andriuskevicius at #5 to Utah?)

    EDIT: Zhone, I was re-reading your post and you say we have the 39 pick? I think its 40 because we won the coin toss with LA so they would have the higher 2nd rounder. I could be wrong though.
     
  4. Run BJM

    Run BJM Heavy lies the crown. Staff Member Global Moderator

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    Okay, I remember even more random info on Nate Robinson. He got to college on a football scholarship and he was a kick returner but later decided to focus on basketball. He has very quick hands so he pressures the ball handler. I'm still trying to figure out his shooting. First I read that he is a good shooter then i read that he is an inconsistent shooter and then i read that his shooting is under-rated. Also, I dont see this guy becoming a starter but Fisher plays more SG than PG with us and I think this guy could bring in a major spark off the bench as well as good insurance if Baron is out due to injury.
     
  5. Zhone

    Zhone JBB JustBBall Member

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    You're right - we have the 40th pick, I forgot about the coin-toss flip-flop. My bad.

    Nate reminds me a lot of Oaktown b-ball legend, Demetrius Hook Mitchell. 5'9", athleticism out of this world. The difference being, Robinson didn't get into trouble with the law. Watching Nate a lot over the past two seasons has been great, the guy is/will be better than a lot of the other shorter guys in the league. The only problem is that his point guard skills aren't up to snuff yet for the NBA, although if he can work on his passing and vision, he'll be pretty good. As far as the shot thing goes, he's got good form. It just needs to get better range.

    I like Gomes, but at forward I would rate him behind a lot of other guys I also like, i.e. Simien, Maxiell, or even slightly riskier guys like Kleiza or Katelynus. Simien and Gomes are considered somewhat similar, but I like Simien a lot more because of his strength and the fact that he fits Warriors' needs better. Both are great rebounders with incredible post skills, definitely. Gomes has done a lot of work to prove that he's a good small forward as well, transitioning from power forward, but I'm still not so sure about him as a small forward, because his defense and skills are really that of a power forward. Just again for comparison sakes, this guy reminds me of Corliss Williamson when he came out. Which is not a bad thing.
     
  6. Run BJM

    Run BJM Heavy lies the crown. Staff Member Global Moderator

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    I'm basing my opinions off of player profiles as i dont watch much college ball (except the NCAA tournament) so I'm sure you know better than I. Maybe we could get another SF from the same region of Zarko and Biedrins to add more chemistry and motivatoin among them. I really like how Skita/Zarko/Biedrins relationship has panned out, they have all improved pretty well while playing together and, form what i've read, they all were sort of outcasts on their respective teams but now they are a group of outcasts. [​IMG]
     
  7. REREM

    REREM JBB JustBBall Member

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    When I go on about Ike Diogu,it's based on seeing him this season,not last year. He dropped some weight,got way quicker,without losing power,and on top of that increased his shooting range. When I see a guy upgrade his game significantly,and also give a max effort in all areas of his play-I contest the notion his talent has maxed out. ANY guy who puts in serious effort to improve all his skills can keep getting better. If Pietrus continues to develop,he's ready to start at SF. While he's smaller than some SF's,he is also quicker than those guys-in a matchup. A lot of 6-9 F's will have more trouble guarding Pietrus than he'd have guarding them. Diogu can be a strong SF,a quick,skilled PF,he is very athletic,even if not a 40 inch leaper and he knows how to exploit any matchup,big or small,which is why he scored around 23ppg when opponents were focused on stopping him. Think of a taller Charles Barkley.
    With assorted contract factors,if the W's do a trade of much significance,Dunleavy would be the main guy. I'd prefer to get a draft pick,if possible. Veteran contracts tend to be high,and would add to our cap hassles,though if a deal of that sort moved Fisher,we'd be shedding a steep conrtact. Down the stretch the Warriors were winning more than 60% of the time,including wins against top Western teams-so while the crew we have is not perfect,it is much improved.
    Monty found out in the late season that the W's do best outrunning,out scoring rivals,that these guys can move,that we have guys who can catch and shoot,guys who can slash and drive.
    Murphy will adjust,I feel. He will be working to get back the spring and quickness he had when lighter. Ideally,he's injury free and can maintain his mobility.
    Biedrens will be adding strength,but they won't want to overdo the bulk and neglect the legs. Andy used real nice quickness and footwork to his advantage. Zarko is similar,quickness is essential,though some added muscle and bulk would help.
     
  8. Custodianrules2

    Custodianrules2 Cohan + Rowell = Suck

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    What if we trade Dunleavy to Orlando for the 11 pick (Insurance for Grant Hill). I feel like we might be getting robbed, but we could find a nice player like Danny Granger or Ike Diogu if he slips (and surely he will, based on teams being afraid of his size and low ceiling on his potential i.e. he won't be any different than the player he is now).

    So we could draft some players higher than they normally would go i.e. Ike Diogu + Danny Granger. I hate drafting for need, though and by trading Dunleavy it puts you in a hole at small forward.

    2nd rounders, we need more playmakers or guys that can just break down defenses and soften them up. Some more shooters would be nice.
     
  9. Endym

    Endym JBB JustBBall Member

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    How tall is Diogu? Does he have long arms to compensate his lack of height?

    How does his game compare to NBA undersized PFs like 6'7 Kenny Thomas (10pts 10rebs guy), 6'8 Sweetney (7ps 5rebs guy)?
     
  10. Run BJM

    Run BJM Heavy lies the crown. Staff Member Global Moderator

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    Diogu is listed at 6'8 but i dont know if he has a long wingspan. I've read that he cant play SF beause he is not fast enough. He may have nice footwork in the post but, from what I've read, the scouts dont think he can play SF very effectively. I do like this guy though, probably my first choice for the first round. He seems like a sure thing even if he doesn't have too much of an upside.

    I think hes closer to Kenny Thomas because Diogu has a nice mid-range shot and he is more agile instead of Sweetney's bulldozer type body.
     
  11. Run BJM

    Run BJM Heavy lies the crown. Staff Member Global Moderator

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    And in responce to Rerem, I love those points that you make. I trust Murphy more this offseason to improve or fix his flaws than Dun. Murphy has pretty much done whatever he can to improve on things that people criticize him for. As long as we have Foyle, I think we are fine. No teams in the west (except Denver maybe) have two dominant scoring bigs so we can put Foyle on Garnett or Duncan or K Martin while Murphy covers their respective centers. And Murphy has gained alot of muscle which probably helped him not get pushed around but without Shaq who is going to do that now?

    IMO, Our most vulnerable positions in order are: SF, C, PG, PF, SG. There seems to be good depth in this draft at SF and PG but with (hopefully) White and probably Skita leaving, we need someone to back up Dun and maybe challenge him for his job. Zarko could be a SF but he is a impossible to stop with most PFs or Cs (anyone remember his game when he was against Yao). Maybe we have a more old-school type of Dirk in the making here.
     
  12. Custodianrules2

    Custodianrules2 Cohan + Rowell = Suck

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    <div class="quote_poster">Quoting Run BJM:</div><div class="quote_post">
    IMO, Our most vulnerable positions in order are: SF, C, PG, PF, SG. There seems to be good depth in this draft at SF and PG but with (hopefully) White and probably Skita leaving, we need someone to back up Dun and maybe challenge him for his job. Zarko could be a SF but he is a impossible to stop with most PFs or Cs (anyone remember his game when he was against Yao). Maybe we have a more old-school type of Dirk in the making here.</div> I can live with Murphy as long as he's healthy and he's not sucking on defense. He's shown more dimensions in his offensive game other than just settling for jumpers, which is good.

    I still think our biggest need is a PF, SF, C, PG, SG.

    We need an all-around power forward because these are most likely the best prospects in which to find an all-around big man's game. The depth for finding impact centers who can score/rebound/defend/pass in the NBA is terrible. I feel like if we can find a 6'8-6'11, 245-260 lb guy that can hit midrange jumpshots and pound the ball inside and create contact, it creates more worries for the weaker/slower defenders in the paint in getting touch fouls, blocking fouls or reach-in fouls. This will also allow the 4th and 5th guys to get higher fg%'s and opportunties to set up wide open jump shooters and draw possible double teams inside. The problem with Murphy, despite his scoring punch, is he's not a high fg% shooter even though he is a remarkable shot when he's wide wide open with his feet already set. Also throw in the fact nobody double teams this guy or has ever double teamed this guy. I can trust that a 6'2-6'4 guard can deny him an easy basket almost 50% of the time that's how lousy of an inside scorer he can be.

    The next position we need is a small forward that can defend and handle pressure shots as well as pass the ball and handle it some. Baron Davis is an NBA first team all-defense candidate if he stays healthy and doesn't gamble too much on steals, Jason Richardson (finally) is a good defender once he put his energy into it, and it is still up for debate whether Dunleavy can or can't be a good individual defender based on his IQ, his 3 years of nba experience, floor awareness, wide step and strength conditioning. Troy Murphy just plain sucks on D with the additional 15 lbs he's gained, but he's so valuable as rebounder, long range shooter and scorer and he's usually consistent when healthy. (I'll give credit to Murphy that he's not bad as a post defender, he's just not that great in pulling the chair out from under guys or pushing players out of low-post position or picking the ball away) Then finally, Foyle and Biedrins look pretty decent in pick and roll, but neither can create their own shot or any offense for themselves.

    Thus I think we need another option at power forward that can play some center and set up other players by playing inside more and scoring 50% in the paint that can also defend and make Foyle not have to work as hard as he does protecting the bucket. Unfortunately Andrew Bogut isn't going to just fall into our lap. Even if he's a 15/8 guy, it wouldn't be bad at all. I just think we need a power forward that's fundamentally sound on both ends and has some versatility at center and enjoys contact in the paint to draw fouls or get some separation from the defender while scoring. I don't think there's too many good small forwards in the league and if we draft them, they'll take a while to get good.
     
  13. Run BJM

    Run BJM Heavy lies the crown. Staff Member Global Moderator

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    <div class="quote_poster">Quoting custodianrules2:</div><div class="quote_post">
    We need an all-around power forward because these are most likely the best prospects in which to find an all-around big man's game. The depth for finding impact centers who can score/rebound/defend/pass in the NBA is terrible. I feel like if we can find a 6'8-6'11, 245-260 lb guy that can hit midrange jumpshots and pound the ball inside and create contact, it creates more worries for the weaker/slower defenders in the paint in getting touch fouls, blocking fouls or reach-in fouls. This will also allow the 4th and 5th guys to get higher fg%'s and opportunties to set up wide open jump shooters and draw possible double teams inside. The problem with Murphy, despite his scoring punch, is he's not a high fg% shooter even though he is a remarkable shot when he's wide wide open with his feet already set. Also throw in the fact nobody double teams this guy or has ever double teamed this guy. I can trust that a 6'2-6'4 guard can deny him an easy basket almost 50% of the time that's how lousy of an inside scorer he can be.</div>

    Sounds like Diogu to me. We may gamble and go with Taft though, if he pans out he could be a force out west. (Garnett and Duncan pushing 30 and Shaq is gone)
     
  14. Custodianrules2

    Custodianrules2 Cohan + Rowell = Suck

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    Looks like our time to shine. If Diogu can impress Mullin/Higgins/Richmond that he'll be Elton Brand/Zach Randolph with the 20/10 potential, I think he's our draft. I wouldn't want the actual Zach Randolph though, too selfish and doesn't play much defense, so let's hope he's more like Brand.
     
  15. .cabangbang

    .cabangbang BBW Member

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    Does anyone think we can nab Salim Stoudamire?
     
  16. Run BJM

    Run BJM Heavy lies the crown. Staff Member Global Moderator

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    I doubt it. I think he will probably go between 1-7 in the second round, we are the tenth (and twelvth). I'd love to nab him though, I bet he could be a good scoring back-up PG, he seems too small to be a SG.
     
  17. REREM

    REREM JBB JustBBall Member

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    Some sites put up a review for players at the start of the season and it is based on the previous season,and doesn't get changed. Diogu dropped 10+ pounds,got quite a bit quicker,while also increasing his shooting range. He is quicker than Dunleavy,quicker than Gomes,and as quick as quite a few SF's. As he is strong,crafty and explosive inside,PF is more natural. He's a real good defender,will be better than Murphy or Dunleavy on D,and with experiance,above average for starting F's. I don't know what his wingspan is but it looked pretty good,in many ways he's a 6-8 Amare,power,instincts,explosiveness and no glaring weakness.

    Salim may not have Iverson quickness but is very quick,he loses defenders who want to not let him get off a 3...and does it so well he made a LOT of 3's,at a 53% rate.
    Nate Robinson is very athletic,but small. He's a streaky shooter,but a good penetrater. Both Salim and Nate showed some point skills in there game,and can score as well as any of the 3 points in the top 10.
    I'd hope to swing a deal,or deals for a late #1,early # 2 or both as I see Salim and Dwayne Jones as very underated,real draft bargains. Jones,6-11,250 ranked among the leaders in boards and blocks. That makes him great depth for starters. In time he might become a scorer. You CAN NOT get 11 1/2 boards a game without being a guy who is dedicated and tough. Work ethic is vital to improving on one's game. Slackers often never reach their potential
    Roberts and Gomes are both good players. I would not be surprised if they are starting someday. Diogu is better on D,but Gomes,Roberts,both rebound well and score. Roberts gets shafted by some mocks,he's high rd 2 talent at least.
    Deng Gai and Juan Mendez are a pair of guys who may be borderline rd 2 on some rankings,but could be real sleepers. Gai can have a lot of impact on D
     
  18. REREM

    REREM JBB JustBBall Member

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    Brandon Bass,LSU,is considering declaring. As he entered-and pulled out last year,if he entered he stays in. Could be another early rd 2 bargain.
     
  19. Custodianrules2

    Custodianrules2 Cohan + Rowell = Suck

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    <div class="quote_poster">Quoting REREM:</div><div class="quote_post"> Diogu dropped 10+ pounds,got quite a bit quicker,while also increasing his shooting range. He is quicker than Dunleavy,quicker than Gomes,and as quick as quite a few SF's. As he is strong,crafty and explosive inside,PF is more natural. He's a real good defender,will be better than Murphy or Dunleavy on D,and with experiance,above average for starting F's. I don't know what his wingspan is but it looked pretty good,in many ways he's a 6-8 Amare,power,instincts,explosiveness and no glaring weakness.</div>
    Now I think you're just pumping him. [​IMG] REREM are you an ASU alumnus? [​IMG]

    I dunno it just sounds like you're going against the grain in the descriptions you give him versus the overal consensus. I've seen him and he's a very sound player. Plays with desire, very fundamentally sound, and has high bball IQ. He's not that explosive. He's effective though. But he may very well suffer Dunleavy's fate of being too much in between or may suffer being the next Marcus Fizer.
     
  20. Zhone

    Zhone JBB JustBBall Member

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    Haha, Diogu does have a good shooting touch for a big man, just not the range (yet). He's always had a ton of stamina so that's not a problem, and he's always had all the skills, so his getting in shape and quickness drills have been mainly to help teams believe he can make the transition to PF/SF.

    Strangely enough, my scouting report on Diogu reminds me of Troy Murphy (from what I recall of it and my old notes.. yes I randomly found my old notes while preparing to format my hard drive) although Murphy was listed at 6'9" / 6'10" and Diogu is obviously a bit shorter. Obviously Murphy extended his range and bulked up in recent years. But in those days Murphy was about the same weight and was offensively skilled in the post and from midrange, not the quickest athlete, which is where Diogu is at right now. Diogu has a better defensive presence than Murphy did in college by far, though. And of course the height thing is a big factor too, though negatively. Anyway, not saying Diogu will be the next Murphy, but I guess my point is that my old notes are wack...or rather I guess my point is that Diogu is a good candidate to develop because of his basketball IQ and work ethic and his skills do appear to make up for a lot like how Murphy used his skills to make up for his lack of explosiveness etc.
     

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