Predict The Draft Picks (+ Jrich23's offseason preview)

Discussion in 'Golden State Warriors' started by .cabangbang, Apr 23, 2005.

  1. Kwan1031

    Kwan1031 JBB JustBBall Member

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    Well, I can see the logic behind drafting either PG or rumored Warrick. Davis has been rather injury prone for last few years, and if Davis goes down, our team will hurt significantly, because we only have Fisher, who's really more suited for SG spot. I don't see us drafting Jack, since he is projected to go lower than 9th. Felton may be too good to pass up though. I can also see Warrick logic, because we will be run and gun team, and like Suns and Stoudmire, it would be really nice to have super athlatic PF, who can fly and dunk the ball with Davis. Line up of Davis, Richardson, Pietrus and Warrick can be some amazing running line up.

    I can see us drafting Granger if we can't find right pf. Wing defense is our weakness after all, and we don't know what's going on with Dunleavy and his extension. If he turns out to be a right SF, we will have huge advantage when it comes to Dunleavy's extension. Diogu? In one hand, he is a complete package, and will bring a post up game for us. However, I don't know he is a right fit, since we will probably run a lot, and I don't know he is quick or athlatic enough (far better than Murphy).

    But this is probably the most confusing draft class I ever saw. Obviously, Bogut, Williams, Paul, Williams and Green are first tier. After that, virtually any player can go from 6 to 20ish. And, draft is less than 9 days away...
     
  2. wtwalker77

    wtwalker77 JBB JustBBall Member

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    Here's my problem with drafting Felton (who I don't think would be available anyway) or Jack: both of are starting caliber pgs. I can't imagine either would be happy coming here knowing that as long as Baron was around, he'd be the starter. It doesn't matter how injury prone Davis is, Felton or Jack would know that they won't ever be the regular starting pg in the next 4-5 years. If Mullin drafted one of 'em, he'd be asking for controversy.

    Felton was quoted recently after a workout with the Knicks where he said if they drafted him, he'd expect they'd move Marbury over to the two so Felton could run the show. That's not gonna happen in Golden State with Davis and Richardson in the backcourt.

    If I were Mullin I'd get my pg in the second round. Nate Robinson, Salim Stoudamire, and even Travis Diener would be nice options. And if Luther Head fell to #40, I'd jump at the chance to take him.
     
  3. Custodianrules2

    Custodianrules2 Cohan + Rowell = Suck

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    I would be happy with Oriene Green, Aaron Miles or Wil Conroy (whoever had a better outside shot). I know we would like a speedy, jump shooter that can score from the point guard spot, but I think if we get a good playmaker/defender that can score within the flow that's good enough. If we find a way to get the ball to Zarko, Pietrus, or Biedrins that would be my ideal backup point guard.

    Nate Robinson, John Gilchrist and Salim Stoudamire would be my picks too for combo guard.

    Well Jack is out. If we landed Felton, ignoring the unlikelihood that he falls, I think the fact he's a rare pure point guard that can score can spawn some interesting trades for a big man. Big men always have the most value in the league, but I'm sure teams are realizing finding a decent playmaker + shooter is almost as valuable and rare as a decent big man. Might be interesting stuff to toss around to New Orleans for let's say, Jamaal Magloire? They get Felton and the other guy the drafted at #4. We'd only have Magloire for two years, that's the problem... so nevermind. But it's the only big guy that a team would likely give up if they weren't confident they could re-sign him because of him wanting to go to Toronto where they'll have free agent money waiting for him.
     
  4. Custodianrules2

    Custodianrules2 Cohan + Rowell = Suck

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    <div align="center"><font color="black"><font face="Verdana"><font size="6"> WHAT THEY'RE SAYING</font></font>
    <font size="4">National NBA Writers Pose Their Mock Drafts</font>
    </font>
    </div>

    http://www.nba.com/warriors/news/05_draft_mocking.html

    <div class="quote_poster">Quote:</div><div class="quote_post"><font size="2"> There are a lot of "experts" out there trying to get a handle on who the Warriors are going to pick with the #11 pick in the 2005 NBA Draft. Warriors.com has combed through the internet for you and compiled all their picks in one place. With the draft less than a week away, many off these will fluctuate daily. So check back often for new additions!</font></div>
    Woopsies! Looks like they're re-using the same web template last year or they're going to make a trade with Orlando!
     
  5. wtwalker77

    wtwalker77 JBB JustBBall Member

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    Custodian, do you know if Shape or any of the higher ups here are submitting their mock to nba team websites and/or any newpaper websites that run these mock draft compilations?

    I'd put their mock up against anyone out there not named Chad Ford (and to a lesser extent draftcity), and that's just because they don't have access to the inside information he does.
     
  6. Custodianrules2

    Custodianrules2 Cohan + Rowell = Suck

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    <div class="quote_poster">Quoting wtwalker77:</div><div class="quote_post">Custodian, do you know if Shape or any of the higher ups here are submitting their mock to nba team websites and/or any newpaper websites that run these mock draft compilations?

    I'd put their mock up against anyone out there not named Chad Ford (and to a lesser extent draftcity), and that's just because they don't have access to the inside information he does.</div>
    I have no clue, but I'm sure you can drop Shapecity, VoodooChild or CourtKing a message and ask them if they will. They will be pleased that you think so highly of their mock. After 5 revisions, and not counting possible trades, the mock looks pretty good, huh?
     
  7. wtwalker77

    wtwalker77 JBB JustBBall Member

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    Now that I've had time to digest the new CBA and we have a final list of who's in and out of the draft, I'm starting to get a better (but far from good) idea about this draft and what I think the Warriors should do.

    First of all, let me just say that this is by far the toughest draft to project that I can remember. I really started obessing about the draft in '99 (about when the internet really started to have good draft information). I'd usually do 4-5 mocks throughout the month or two before the draft and by about this time each year I'd at least have 5-6 spots in the lottery where I could pencil in guys as definitely being available.

    I haven't done one mock this year because there hasn't even been one spot where I could pencil in a guy, and I don't think there will be until the night before the draft, which is just absurd.

    I'm saying all this because this is a predict the picks thread and I can't believe that here we are, less than a week before the draft and it's still impossible to predict the picks with anything amount of certainty.

    Anyway, with the new CBA creating a true minor league system (I'm getting really excited about this) and the Warriors not having any real holes to fill, I think this is absolutely the time to take a couple of risks.

    The conservative route would be to take Diogu with the #9 pick and be happy that the only real hole (good low post scorer) has been filled. The high risk/high reward route (well, actually with the new CBA rules its really a low risk/high reward route) would be to swing a trade with Denver for the #20 and #22 picks and take some guys who are a few years away and develop them in the minor leagues. The more I think about it, the more I love this idea.

    Think about it, at #20 and #22 the Warriors could potentially have their pick of:

    Andriuskevicius
    Bynum
    Blatche
    Petro
    Illyasova
    Villenueava
    Taft
    Louis Williams

    My preference would be for two of the first four, but all of them have considerable upside. When you look at the amount of high schoolers who have developed into anything from a quality starter to an all-NBA player, the percentage is actually extremely high, much higher than college upperclassmen. I'd say the same will be true for young euro players as well, we just haven't had enough time to see what percentage of them develop.

    If the Warriors draft two guys with potential and put them in a minor league for a couple of years, I'd say the likelihood of at least one of them turning into an all-star caliber player is pretty high. I'd definitely say it'd be higher than if the Warriors stayed at #9 and picked between Diogu, Frye, Granger, Webster, May, Vazquez, and anyone else who'd be available at that spot.

    This isn't based on scouting each individual player, but rather looking at the all the drafts since '95 (when Garnett came into the league) and looking at the percentages of high schoolers who have panned out as opposed to the accomplished collegiate player. (of course you'd have to exclude Webster and Vazquez from the list of accomplished collegiate players, but since the Warriors would be doubling their chances of getting a good player by picking twice in the first round as opposed to once, that's why I included them in the list).

    Now I haven't heard that the Warriors are interested in moving down or that Denver is interested in moving up (Kiki is probably thinking the same thing I am), but the good news is that there should still be quality players on the board when the Warriors have their two picks in the second round.

    With those picks, I'd definitely hope they take a chance on a euro guy with upside or high schooler, whether it be Louis Williams, Gigli, Ilic, or someone else. But only with one of their picks, with the other one I hope they go after either Nate Robinson or Salim Stoudamire. Both remind me of former Warriors. Nate is going to have the obvious Earl Boykins comparisons, but at 5'9" with ridiculous hops, he plays much bigger than he is or Boykins could.

    As for Stoudamire, he just reminds me of a certain other eccentric Arizona alum/combo guard. He's not nearly as athletic as Arenas, but he's a much better shooter. The thing about Stoudamire that really reminds me of Arenas is just his internal drive and will to win. He doesn't play with a chip on his shoulder like Arenas, but he's got the same self-confidence/cockiness that has made Arenas successful in the NBA.
     
  8. REREM

    REREM JBB JustBBall Member

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    The part where i fully agre with WtWalker's comments is Salim. Like Arenas he went to AU,had been a hs PG,but played as a 2 g and was a scorer,with nice quickness and lots of desire. I am pretty sure he will be a quality NBA Point G and wherever he's drafted will end up a bargain. I see Diogu as having BIG upside. He has skills,He has power,he moves well he plays all aspects of the gaim with intelligence + intensity.
    I don't think half the guys on that list of 20+22 picks are even decent picks at 22,and the good picks,Bynum/Blatche,will be gone by 20. Bynum is the REAL big guy teams covet. Blatche has a lot of developed skills as a shooter + ballhandler many bigs never have. On he other hand,Taft+Martynas were given a free ticket to the top 5 at the start of the season,but had to give a ****,which they did not. Neither has improved in the last year as far as anyone knows and at that pace....well,you get a flop.
     
  9. REREM

    REREM JBB JustBBall Member

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    a thought I'd had awhile back was Dunleavy+White+a 2007 #2 for Charlotte's pick at 13. Charlotte gets 2 guys with an area history from college,with Dun's an experianced young SF,and they get a pick,maybe 2 '07 rd 2's,as well. Charlotte is the team most apt to value White,and SF is a spot they can upgrade..

    We might then see what can be done with that 13 pick,like the 13,Fish+a #2 for #20+#22. Draft day we see what's left at 20. Maybe Blatche? Hodge? If it's thinning out fast,maybe we do another trade down of one of those,with Salim and Dwayne Jones as priorities-and we get something else in the future. On the other hand,staying at 13 has some merit,we should see Blatche-and-or Bynum available,and Graham could be a good pick at 13 too. Dwayne Jones staying in is a plus. He is a better pick than Taft and likely a cheaper pick too.
     
  10. .cabangbang

    .cabangbang BBW Member

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    <div class="quote_poster">Quoting REREM:</div><div class="quote_post">a thought I'd had awhile back was Dunleavy+White+a 2007 #2 for Charlotte's pick at 13. Charlotte gets 2 guys with an area history from college,with Dun's an experianced young SF,and they get a pick,maybe 2 '07 rd 2's,as well. Charlotte is the team most apt to value White,and SF is a spot they can upgrade..

    We might then see what can be done with that 13 pick,like the 13,Fish+a #2 for #20+#22. Draft day we see what's left at 20. Maybe Blatche? Hodge? If it's thinning out fast,maybe we do another trade down of one of those,with Salim and Dwayne Jones as priorities-and we get something else in the future. On the other hand,staying at 13 has some merit,we should see Blatche-and-or Bynum available,and Graham could be a good pick at 13 too. Dwayne Jones staying in is a plus. He is a better pick than Taft and likely a cheaper pick too.</div>
    I like that idea. That could have us getting Granger at 9, Felton at 13 and trading the Fish. Then we would have a pretty damn good team
     
  11. Custodianrules2

    Custodianrules2 Cohan + Rowell = Suck

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    Dunleavy for the #13 pick? Heck I'd do that even though it seems we're giving up chemistry. If we play Pietrus at the SG or SF position that might not be bad for our chances in re-signing him. The #9 could be used to land Diogu or Vasqyez and the #13 can be used on a project like Blatche or Bynum or Joey Graham if we happened to take Bynum higher than anybody ever imagined. Draft day anything can happen, I guess.
     
  12. Custodianrules2

    Custodianrules2 Cohan + Rowell = Suck

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    <div class="quote_poster">Quoting J-Rich23:</div><div class="quote_post">I like that idea. That could have us getting Granger at 9, Felton at 13 and trading the Fish. Then we would have a pretty damn good team</div>
    I'd be happy with Granger/Diogu. I'd grab Felton if some team was wanting to deal immediately for him. When your backups are projected to be too good, that's when you gotta trade. I'd take veteran Jason Terry or young Nick Van Exel-like sixth men.
     
  13. .cabangbang

    .cabangbang BBW Member

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    <div class="quote_poster">Quoting custodianrules2:</div><div class="quote_post">I'd be happy with Granger/Diogu. I'd grab Felton if some team was wanting to deal immediately for him. When your backups are projected to be too good, that's when you gotta trade. I'd take veteran Jason Terry or young Nick Van Exel-like sixth men.</div>
    I see what you mean there. But that would be very nice for us. Anyone for this

    Anyone?

    Golden State Trade Breakdown
    Outgoing
    First Round #9 Pick
    0-0 from
    No games yet played in 2004/05
    Mike Dunleavy
    6-9 SF from Duke
    13.4 ppg, 5.5 rpg, 2.6 apg in 32.5 minutes
    Derek Fisher
    6-1 PG from Arkansas-Little Rock
    11.8 ppg, 3.0 rpg, 4.1 apg in 30.0 minutes
    Adonal Foyle
    6-10 C from Colgate
    4.5 ppg, 5.5 rpg, 0.7 apg in 21.8 minutes
    Incoming
    First Round #7 Pick
    0-0 from
    No games yet played in 2004/05
    Alvin Williams
    6-5 from Villanova
    No games yet played in 2004/05
    First Round #13 Pick
    0-0 from
    No games yet played in 2004/05
    Change in team outlook: -29.7 ppg, -14.0 rpg, and -7.4 apg.


    Toronto Trade Breakdown
    Outgoing
    Chris Bosh
    6-10 PF from Ga. Tech
    16.8 ppg, 8.9 rpg, 1.9 apg in 37.2 minutes
    First Round #16 Pick
    0-0 from
    No games yet played in 2004/05
    First Round #7 Pick
    0-0 from
    No games yet played in 2004/05
    Alvin Williams
    6-5 from Villanova
    No games yet played in 2004/05
    Incoming
    Adonal Foyle
    6-10 C from Colgate
    4.5 ppg, 5.5 rpg, 0.7 apg in 21.8 minutes
    First Round #5 Pick
    0-0 from
    No games yet played in 2004/05
    Jason Hart
    6-3 PG from Syracuse
    9.5 ppg, 2.7 rpg, 5.0 apg in 25.5 minutes
    Melvin Ely
    6-10 PF from Fresno State
    7.3 ppg, 4.1 rpg, 1.0 apg in 20.9 minutes
    Change in team outlook: +4.5 ppg, +3.4 rpg, and +4.8 apg.


    Charlotte Trade Breakdown
    Outgoing
    First Round #13 Pick
    0-0 from
    No games yet played in 2004/05
    First Round #5 Pick
    0-0 from
    No games yet played in 2004/05
    Jason Hart
    6-3 PG from Syracuse
    9.5 ppg, 2.7 rpg, 5.0 apg in 25.5 minutes
    Melvin Ely
    6-10 PF from Fresno State
    7.3 ppg, 4.1 rpg, 1.0 apg in 20.9 minutes
    Incoming
    First Round #9 Pick
    0-0 from
    No games yet played in 2004/05
    Mike Dunleavy
    6-9 SF from Duke
    13.4 ppg, 5.5 rpg, 2.6 apg in 32.5 minutes
    Derek Fisher
    6-1 PG from Arkansas-Little Rock
    11.8 ppg, 3.0 rpg, 4.1 apg in 30.0 minutes
    Chris Bosh
    6-10 PF from Ga. Tech
    16.8 ppg, 8.9 rpg, 1.9 apg in 37.2 minutes
    First Round #16 Pick
    0-0 from
    No games yet played in 2004/05
    Change in team outlook: +25.2 ppg, +10.6 rpg, and +2.6 apg.



    Successful Scenario
    Due to Golden State and Toronto being over the cap, the 15% trade rule is invoked. Golden State and Toronto had to be no more than 115% plus $100,000 of the salary given out for the trade to be accepted, which did happen here. This trade satisfies the provisions of the Collective Bargaining Agreement.

    We take Granger with 7 and Felton with the 13 and his rights to Dallas for Terry.

    Toronto nabs Gerald Green. I know it sounds nuts, but his agent is cuckoo and is lowering his stock by having only private workouts.

    Charlotte tradest the 9 to another team for a good player and grabs Diogu with the 16
     
  14. Custodianrules2

    Custodianrules2 Cohan + Rowell = Suck

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    <div class="quote_poster">Quoting J-Rich23:</div><div class="quote_post">I see what you mean there. But that would be very nice for us.</div> I think Felton would be awesome as a sixth man on both ends, but he's probably too talented of a playmaker to have him not seeing starting minutes unless the whole deal is take the pressure of Baron Davis himself. Of course this is all assuming he'd fall this far to us.

    Felton could be good insurance if Baron blows out his heel (knock on wood) or screws up a disc in his back (also knock on wood). At least we could still compete with a very good point guard who has shot range, quickness, ballhandling, and court vision. It's probably better to address our need of a franchise big man that can defend and go for a speedy point guard in the 2nd round or a combo guard that can shoot and has reliable quickness/strength to defend a little. So, I'm pretty much with Walker on drafting a pg in the 2nd round, unless we're drafting for someone else and they're giving us a good player to upgrade one of our starters.

    After seeing a world of difference between the Erick Dampier/Cliff Robinson team versus the Foyle/Troy Murphy team, we need that passing, shooting defender at the 4. If it turns out its Channing Frye, it might not be that bad if he's the type of guy scouts think can defend most 4's in the league (which I don't) unless he's the second coming of Clif Robinson.
     
  15. .cabangbang

    .cabangbang BBW Member

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    <div class="quote_poster">Quoting custodianrules2:</div><div class="quote_post">I think Felton would be awesome as a sixth man on both ends, but he's probably too talented of a playmaker to have him not seeing starting minutes unless the whole deal is take the pressure of Baron Davis himself.

    Felton could be good insurance if Baron blows out his heel (knock on wood) or screws up a disc in his back (also knock on wood). At least we could still compete with a very good point guard who has shot range, quickness, ballhandling, and court vision. It's probably better to address our need of a franchise big man and go for a speedy point guard in the 2nd round or a combo guard that can shoot and has reliable quickness/strength to defend a little. So, I'm pretty much with Walker on drafting a pg in the 2nd round, unless we're drafting for someone else and they're giving us a good player.</div>


    If you see my edited post, you see my trade [​IMG]
     
  16. Custodianrules2

    Custodianrules2 Cohan + Rowell = Suck

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    <div class="quote_poster">Quoting J-Rich23:</div><div class="quote_post">If you see my edited post, you see my trade [​IMG]</div> hehe I edited my post too. I always think of more things to say after I hit "submit".

    I think Toronto fans are going to murder you over the idea of trading Chris Bosh! [​IMG]
     
  17. .cabangbang

    .cabangbang BBW Member

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    <div class="quote_poster">Quoting custodianrules2:</div><div class="quote_post">hehe I edited my post too. I always think of more things to say after I hit "submit".

    I think Toronto fans are going to murder you over the idea of trading Chris Bosh! [​IMG]</div>

    Lol. Yeah I know. I couldn't find anyone for Bosh there.
     
  18. Custodianrules2

    Custodianrules2 Cohan + Rowell = Suck

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    <div class="quote_poster">Quoting J-Rich23:</div><div class="quote_post">Lol. Yeah I know. I couldn't find anyone for Bosh there.</div>
    And you gave them Foyle too. Nice!
     
  19. .cabangbang

    .cabangbang BBW Member

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    <div class="quote_poster">Quoting custodianrules2:</div><div class="quote_post">And you gave them Foyle too. Nice!</div>

    Yeah sorry Toronto fans
     
  20. Custodianrules2

    Custodianrules2 Cohan + Rowell = Suck

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    More and more I'm leaning on REREM's ideal picks for big men, but guys like Andrew Bynum are so mysterious. How good is he really and have the Warriors worked him out? Also what would happen to Biedrins?


    Check this guy's rating of power forwards. It is nuts...
    http://sports.yahoo.com/nba/news?slug=dw-p...=yhoo&type=lgns
     

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