2007-08 NBA Regular Season Real Player Ratings

Discussion in 'Denver Nuggets' started by tremaine, Jul 11, 2008.

  1. tremaine

    tremaine To Win, Be Like Fitz

    Joined:
    Nov 25, 2006
    Messages:
    1,192
    Likes Received:
    5
    Trophy Points:
    38
    Occupation:
    writer, accountant & part time economist
    Location:
    North of great majority of Canadians
    We start by taking the top 390 players, out of about 450 players who played in the NBA in 2007-08, ranked according to gross or simple player rating, which is as follows:

    ADD THE FOLLOWING
    Points
    Rebounds
    1.4 X Assists
    Steals
    1.4 X Blocks
    Field Goals Made
    0.5 X # of 3-Pointers Made
    0.25 X # of Free Throws Made

    SUBTRACT THE FOLLOWING
    0.7 X Turnovers
    0.8 X # of Missed Field Goals
    0.8 X # of Missed Free Throws

    Real Player Rating, the holy grail of player ratings, is then gross or simple player rating divided by minutes per game. This gives you the actual production per minute of each player, so you can now directly compare players with very different playing times. By discovering players who have high ratings, but low minutes, you can spot players who were underrated by their coaches. Among younger players, you can spot the promising ones and the ones who need more time to develop into full NBA players, time that in some cases may not be available, meaning that the player will end up playing in Europe or something.

    Then we eliminate any player who did not play in at least 16 games.

    Then we eliminate any player who did not play at least 7 minutes per game in the games he played in.

    Finally, we lop off the players with the lowest real player ratings from the bottom (36 players in this case) and take the top 330 NBA players to form the official Real Player Ratings list. The average team in the NBA will have 11 players from this list.

    If a player does not appear on the list, then one or more of the following is true:

    1. The player was not among the top 390 out of 450 players for gross or simple real player rating.
    2. His real player rating is very low, less than .536.
    3. He played in fewer than 16 games.
    4. His minutes per game were less than 7. In many cases, this would be a player who played mostly or only in garbage time.
    5. The player is one of the best made you miss type of defenders in the NBA, but has very little offensive game. Since scores that a defender prevents is an unknown quantity, it is not accounted for by the Real Player Rating, and so it is possible for a player not to make the top 330 list despite being a valuable asset, albeit mostly on defense only. Bruce Bowen, the San Antonio small forward, is the most obvious example. His real player rating is only .370, yet he played over 30 minutes a game due to all the scores of the Spurs’ opponents he stops.

    ADJUSTMENTS FOR MADE THEM MISS DEFENDING
    Since shots that a defender stops from going in the basket, with no actual block, can not be known and are not kept track of, the Real Player Rating is not exactly perfect. But if you are very knowledgeable about the skills and efforts of players with respect to preventing scores, you can make your own adjustments based on your knowledge.

    In order to improve my coverage of the Denver Nuggets, I introduced in 2008 “adjustments for defending” to the Nuggets real player ratings. Although neither I nor anyone knows anywhere near exactly how many scores were prevented by the various Nuggets, since I was very familiar with the players and what they can and do accomplish on the court, I was able to rank the Nuggets with respect to made you miss defending.

    I decided that I would then assign an adjustment for made them miss defending to the real player ratings of each Nugget, in equal increments. Furthermore, I decided that the top half of the list of Nuggets according to made them miss defending would get positive adjustments, while the bottom half would get negative adjustments.

    The next step was to estimate how much the adjustments should be. After giving it my best thought, I decided that a +.130 adjustment would be the best estimate I can come up with for what the best made them miss defender the Nuggets have should get. So Kenyon Martins’s Real Player rating is .777, but his Real Player Rating adjusted for made them miss defending is .907.

    The equal increment adjustments were symmetric as to zero, so the best made them miss defender, as just discussed, received a +.130 adjustment, while the worst made them miss defender received a -.130 adjustment. Notice that this means that the best made them miss defender is a full .260 better than the worst made them miss defender, than the basic Real Player Ratings indicate. Since the Real Player Ratings of the entire list of 330 players range from .536 to 1.268, a range of .732, the .260 range for made them miss defending is, it seems clear to me, an adequate but not excessive correction of the fact that no one actually knows how many shots various players prevented from going in.

    So what you do, if you think you know about how good a player is in made them miss defending compared with other players, is to adjust that player’s Real Player Rating up or down, by as much as .130 up if the player is among the very best made them miss defenders among the 330 players rated, and by as much as .130 down if the player is among the very worst.

    Specifically, you estimate how the player would rank among the 330 players who are in the Real Player Ratings rankings, and then adjust that player’s rating according to the following guideline:.

    Top 12: +.130
    13-24: +.120
    25-36: +.110
    37-48: +.100
    49-60: +.090
    61-72: +.080
    73-84: +.070
    85-96: +.060
    97-108: +.050
    109-120: +.040
    121-132: +.030
    133-144: +.020
    145-156: +.010
    157-174: 0
    175-186: -.010
    187-198: -.020
    199-210: -.030
    211-222: -.040
    223-234: -.050
    235-246: -.060
    247-258: -.070
    259-270: -.080
    271-282: -.090
    283-294: -.100
    295-306: -.110
    307-318: -.120
    319-330: -.130

    As another Nuggets example, and maybe I got carried away slightly with the hysteria regarding Carmelo Anthony’s defending, but I estimated Anthony would be ranked in the 259-270 range among the 330 players if all these players were ranked according to made them miss defending. So Anthony’s Real Player Rating, which is 1.091, becomes 1.011, when it is adjusted for made them miss defending.

    Remember that you can adjust only players you know very well as to their defending; it is most likely beyond anyone's capabilities to even approximately rank all 330 players, so there can be no full "Real Player Ratings Adjusted for Made Them Miss Defending". No one that I have found has attempted to do this anywhere on the internet! However, as I did with the Nuggets, I believe that you can calculate the adjusted ratings for a team, if you know the players on that team very well.

    SCALE FOR REAL PLAYER RATINGS
    All Time Historic Superstar Player 1.175 to Up
    Superstar Player 1.050 to 1.174
    Star Player 0.925 to 1.049
    Outstanding Player 0.825 to 0.924
    Major Role Player 0.750 to 0.824
    Role Player 0.675 to 0.749
    Minor Role Player 0.600 to 0.674
    Reserve Only Player 0.525 to 0.599
    Marginal or Struggling Player 0.450 to 0.524
    Bust Players (or Defense Only!) Lower to 0.449

    2007-08 NBA REAL PLAYER RATINGS
    (Counting every on court production except for made them miss defending, as discussed.)

    1 Amare Stoudemire, Pho C 1.268
    2 LeBron James, Cle SF 1.255
    3 Chris Paul, NO PG 1.186
    4 Kobe Bryant, LAL SG 1.149
    5 Kevin Garnett, Bos PF 1.134
    6 Dirk Nowitzki, Dal PF 1.108
    7 Tim Duncan, SA C 1.106
    8 Carlos Boozer, Uta PF 1.103
    9 Carmelo Anthony, Den SF 1.091
    10 Steve Nash, Pho PG 1.079
    11 Andrew Bynum, LAL C 1.063
    12 Yao Ming, Hou C 1.059
    13 Manu Ginobili, SA SG 1.055
    14 Dwight Howard, Orl C 1.053
    15 Al Jefferson, Min C 1.045
    16 Chris Bosh, Tor PF 1.036
    17 Dwyane Wade, Mia SG 1.024
    18 Deron Williams, Uta PG 1.016
    19 Pau Gasol, LAL PF 0.994
    20 Baron Davis, GS PG 0.990
    21 T.J. Ford, Ind PG 0.987
    22 Allen Iverson, Den SG 0.978
    23 Chauncey Billups, Det PG 0.963
    24 Josh Smith, Atl PF 0.946
    25 Zach Randolph, NY PF 0.942
    26 David West, NO PF 0.939
    27 J.R. Smith, Den SG 0.938
    28 Tracy McGrady, Hou SG 0.924
    29 Leon Powe, Bos PF 0.924
    30 Vince Carter, NJ SG 0.923
    31 Andris Biedrins, GS C 0.923
    32 Chris Kaman, LAC C 0.922
    33 Tony Parker, SA PG 0.919
    34 Paul Pierce, Bos SF 0.919
    35 Caron Butler, Was SF 0.917
    36 Shaquille O'Neal, Pho C 0.916
    37 Marcus Camby, Den C 0.914
    38 Jose Calderon, Tor PG 0.914
    39 Shawn Marion, Mia PF 0.910
    40 Kevin Martin, Sac SG 0.909
    41 Zydrunas Ilgauskas, Cle C 0.908
    42 Antawn Jamison, Was PF 0.905
    43 Carl Landry, Hou PF 0.905
    44 Nick Fazekas, LAC PF 0.903
    45 Hedo Turkoglu, Orl SF 0.900
    46 Corey Maggette, GS SF 0.899
    47 Ike Diogu, Por PF 0.893
    48 Monta Ellis, GS SG 0.884
    49 Jason Richardson, Cha SG 0.883
    50 Jason Kidd, Dal PG 0.879
    51 Ron Artest, Sac SF 0.879
    52 Brandon Roy, Por SG 0.870
    53 Mike Dunleavy, Ind SG 0.869
    54 Danny Granger, Ind SF 0.869
    55 Jermaine O'Neal, Tor C 0.868
    56 Josh Howard, Dal SF 0.865
    57 Michael Redd, Mil SG 0.864
    58 Andrew Bogut, Mil C 0.860
    59 LaMarcus Aldridge, Por PF 0.860
    60 Andre Miller, Phi PG 0.858
    61 Andre Iguodala, Phi SF 0.854
    62 Rudy Gay, Mem SF 0.854
    63 Brad Miller, Sac C 0.851
    64 Joe Johnson, Atl SG 0.850
    65 Emeka Okafor, Cha PF 0.849
    66 Mo Williams, Mil PG 0.847
    67 Lamar Odom, LAL PF 0.847
    68 Troy Murphy, Ind PF 0.847
    69 Devin Harris, NJ PG 0.839
    70 Gerald Wallace, Cha SF 0.836
    71 Ben Gordon, Chi SG 0.836
    72 Richard Hamilton, Det SG 0.833
    73 Chris Wilcox, Okc PF 0.833
    74 Al Harrington, GS PF 0.833
    75 Kevin Durant, Sea SF 0.832
    76 Amir Johnson, Det PF 0.831
    77 Luol Deng, Chi SF 0.828
    78 Mike Miller, Min SG 0.825
    79 Rasheed Wallace, Det PF 0.823
    80 Richard Jefferson, Mil SF 0.823
    81 Sam Cassell, Bos PG 0.823
    82 Ramon Sessions, Mil PG 0.822
    83 Brandan Wright, GS PF 0.818
    84 Paul Millsap, Uta PF 0.812
    85 Craig Smith, Min PF 0.811
    86 Leandro Barbosa, Pho SG 0.810
    87 Aaron Gray, Chi C 0.810
    88 Charlie Villanueva, Mil PF 0.809
    89 Nazr Mohammed, Cha C 0.806
    90 David Lee, NY PF 0.804
    91 Jameer Nelson, Orl PG 0.803
    92 Mike Harris, Hou F 0.798
    93 Andres Nocioni, Chi SF 0.793
    94 Nick Collison, Okc PF 0.793
    95 Rashad McCants, Min SG 0.793
    96 Mehmet Okur, Uta C 0.792
    97 Andrei Kirilenko, Uta SF 0.792
    98 Earl Watson, Okc PG 0.791
    99 Joe Smith, Cle PF 0.790
    100 Andray Blatche, Was C 0.790
    101 Luis Scola, Hou PF 0.789
    102 Tyrus Thomas, Chi PF 0.788
    103 Ronny Turiaf, LAL C 0.786
    104 Jordan Farmar, LAL PG 0.786
    105 Brendan Haywood, Was C 0.784
    106 Jason Terry, Dal PG 0.784
    107 Grant Hill, Pho SF 0.783
    108 Stephen Jackson, GS SF 0.783
    109 Kris Humphries, Tor C 0.782
    110 Tyson Chandler, NO C 0.782
    111 Jamaal Tinsley, Ind PG 0.781
    112 Mike Bibby, Atl PG 0.780
    113 Stromile Swift, NJ C 0.780
    114 Rashard Lewis, Orl PF 0.779
    115 Louis Williams, Phi PG 0.778
    116 Kenyon Martin, Den PF 0.777
    117 Steve Novak, Hou PF 0.776
    118 Rasho Nesterovic, Ind C 0.775
    119 Hakim Warrick, Mem PF 0.774
    120 Travis Outlaw, Por SF 0.771
    121 Nate Robinson, NY PG 0.770
    122 Alonzo Mourning, Mia C 0.769
    123 Jeff Foster, Ind C 0.767
    124 Channing Frye, Por PF 0.767
    125 Rajon Rondo, Bos PG 0.763
    126 Linas Kleiza, Den SF 0.762
    127 Jamal Crawford, NY SG 0.759
    128 Ray Allen, Bos SG 0.758
    129 Brandon Bass, Dal PF 0.756
    130 Al Horford, Atl C 0.754
    131 Sasha Vujacic, LAL SG 0.753
    132 Francisco Garcia, Sac SF 0.751
    133 Samuel Dalembert, Phi C 0.750
    134 Shawne Williams, Ind SF 0.750
    135 Matt Barnes, GS PF 0.746
    136 Ronnie Brewer, Uta SG 0.745
    137 Ronald Murray, Ind PG 0.745
    138 Kurt Thomas, SA C 0.743
    139 Drew Gooden, Chi PF 0.740
    140 Bonzi Wells, NO SF 0.735
    141 Matt Harpring, Uta SF 0.735
    142 Kirk Hinrich, Chi PG 0.735
    143 Ryan Gomes, Min SF 0.734
    144 Eddy Curry, NY C 0.734
    145 Joakim Noah, Chi C 0.734
    146 Trevor Ariza, LAL SF 0.732
    147 Austin Croshere, GS PF 0.731
    148 Jason Maxiell, Det PF 0.730
    149 C.J. Miles, Uta SG 0.730
    150 Sean Williams, NJ C 0.726
    151 Josh Childress, Atl SF 0.726
    152 Aaron Brooks, Hou PG 0.725
    153 Thaddeus Young, Phi SF 0.724
    154 Nene Hilario, Den PF 0.723
    155 Brent Barry, SA SG 0.721
    156 Wally Szczerbiak, Cle SF 0.720
    157 Raymond Felton, Cha PG 0.719
    158 Erick Dampier, Dal C 0.713
    159 Rodney Stuckey, Det SG 0.711
    160 Spencer Hawes, Sac C 0.710
    161 Beno Udrih, Sac PG 0.709
    162 Tayshaun Prince, Det SF 0.708
    163 Jamario Moon, Tor SF 0.705
    164 Anthony Carter, Den PG 0.704
    165 Josh Boone, NJ PF 0.704
    166 Marcus Banks, Mia PG 0.703
    167 Kyle Lowry, Mem PG 0.702
    168 Rafer Alston, Hou PG 0.701
    169 John Salmons, Sac SG 0.700
    170 Andre Brown, Mem PF 0.698
    171 Tim Thomas, LAC PF 0.698
    172 Al Thornton, LAC SF 0.697
    173 Marvin Williams, Atl SF 0.697
    174 Julian Wright, NO SF 0.696
    175 Peja Stojakovic, NO SF 0.694
    176 Carlos Delfino, Tor SG 0.694
    177 Antonio McDyess, Det C 0.693
    178 Randy Foye, Min PG 0.693
    179 Derek Fisher, LAL PG 0.693
    180 Kelenna Azubuike, GS SG 0.692
    181 Boris Diaw, Pho PF 0.691
    182 Kendrick Perkins, Bos C 0.690
    183 Juan Dixon, Det SG 0.690
    184 Ronnie Price, Uta PG 0.688
    185 Keyon Dooling, Orl PG 0.686
    186 Bostjan Nachbar, NJ SF 0.685
    187 Eddie House, Bos PG 0.684
    188 Matt Bonner, SA PF 0.683
    189 Bobby Jackson, Hou SG 0.682
    190 Brian Skinner, Pho C 0.680
    191 Mickael Pietrus, Orl SF 0.680
    192 Jannero Pargo, NO PG 0.679
    193 Marcus Williams, NJ PG 0.679
    194 J.J. Redick, Orl SG 0.679
    195 Dorell Wright, Mia SF 0.677
    196 Willie Green, Phi SG 0.677
    197 Jose Juan Barea, Dal PG 0.676
    198 Carlos Arroyo, Orl PG 0.676
    199 Anthony Parker, Tor SG 0.676
    200 Jerry Stackhouse, Dal SG 0.675
    201 Vladimir Radmanovic, LAL PF 0.675
    202 Travis Diener, Ind PG 0.673
    203 Delonte West, Cle SG 0.673
    204 Luther Head, Hou SG 0.672
    205 Kyle Korver, Uta SF 0.671
    206 Luke Walton, LAL SF 0.671
    207 Mike Conley, Mem PG 0.670
    208 Luke Ridnour, Okc PG 0.670
    209 Jarvis Hayes, Det SF 0.669
    210 Dan Dickau, LAC PG 0.667
    211 Stephon Marbury, NY PG 0.667
    212 Nick Young, Was SG 0.662
    213 Roger Mason, Was PG 0.662
    214 Darko Milicic, Mem C 0.660
    215 Marquis Daniels, Ind SG 0.660
    216 Johan Petro, Okc C 0.659
    217 Kirk Snyder, Min SG 0.659
    218 Jarrett Jack, Ind SG 0.658
    219 Walter Herrmann, Det SF 0.655
    220 Dahntay Jones, Sac SG 0.655
    221 Joey Graham, Tor SF 0.655
    222 Joel Przybilla, Por C 0.653
    223 Chris Quinn, Mia PG 0.652
    224 Dikembe Mutombo, Hou C 0.652
    225 Fabricio Oberto, SA PF 0.650
    226 Thabo Sefolosha, Chi SG 0.649
    227 Udonis Haslem, Mia PF 0.649
    228 Andrea Bargnani, Tor PF 0.647
    229 Shelden Williams, Sac C 0.645
    230 Nenad Krstic, NJ PF 0.644
    231 Wilson Chandler, NY SF 0.643
    232 Larry Hughes, Chi SG 0.643
    233 Maurice Evans, Orl SG 0.642
    234 Gerald Green, Dal SF 0.642
    235 Ricky Davis, Mia SF 0.640
    236 Darius Songaila, Was PF 0.639
    237 Antoine Walker, Mem PF 0.639
    238 Zaza Pachulia, Atl C 0.638
    239 Eduardo Najera, Den PF 0.636
    240 Jermareo Davidson, Cha PF 0.635
    241 Juan Carlos Navarro, Mem SG 0.633
    242 Javaris Crittenton, Mem PG 0.632
    243 Gordan Giricek, Pho SG 0.628
    244 Jared Dudley, Cha SF 0.626
    245 Yi Jianlian, NJ PF 0.624
    246 Anderson Varejao, Cle C 0.624
    247 Jason Williams, Mia PG 0.623
    248 DJ Mbenga, LAL C 0.623
    249 Tyronn Lue, Dal PG 0.622
    250 Derek Anderson, Cha SG 0.621
    251 Damien Wilkins, Okc SG 0.621
    252 Salim Stoudamire, Atl SG 0.621
    253 Awvee Storey, Mil SF 0.620
    254 Theo Ratliff, Det C 0.617
    255 Josh Powell, LAC PF 0.615
    256 James Posey, Bos SF 0.614
    257 Jake Voskuhl, Mil C 0.614
    258 Mickael Gelabale, Okc SG 0.613
    259 Jeff Green, Okc PF 0.612
    260 Devin Brown, Cle SF 0.611
    261 Marko Jaric, Mem PG 0.610
    262 Dan Gadzuric, Mil C 0.610
    263 Tony Allen, Bos SG 0.609
    264 Desmond Mason, Mil SF 0.609
    265 Mark Blount, Mia C 0.607
    266 Glen Davis, Bos C 0.606
    267 DeSagana Diop, Dal C 0.606
    268 Kwame Brown, Mem C 0.606
    269 Antonio Daniels, Was PG 0.605
    270 Mikki Moore, Sac PF 0.605
    271 Brian Cook, Orl PF 0.605
    272 David Harrison, Ind C 0.605
    273 Steve Blake, Por PG 0.605
    274 Kareem Rush, Ind SG 0.604
    275 Rodney Carney, Min SG 0.604
    276 Chris Mihm, LAL C 0.603
    277 Ime Udoka, SA SF 0.602
    278 Melvin Ely, NO C 0.600
    279 Anthony Johnson, Sac PG 0.599
    280 Martell Webster, Por SF 0.599
    281 Sebastian Telfair, Min PG 0.599
    282 Ruben Patterson, LAC SF 0.599
    283 Earl Barron, Mia C 0.598
    284 Darius Washington, SA PG 0.598
    285 Cuttino Mobley, LAC SG 0.597
    286 DeShawn Stevenson, Was SG 0.596
    287 Damon Stoudamire, SA PG 0.595
    288 Jason Smith, Phi PF 0.593
    289 Bobby Jones, Den SG 0.593
    290 Brevin Knight, LAC PG 0.593
    291 Malik Allen, Dal PF 0.593
    292 Charlie Bell, Mil SG 0.588
    293 Quincy Douby, Sac PG 0.588
    294 Andre Owens, Ind PG 0.587
    295 James Jones, Mia PF 0.586
    296 Bobby Simmons, NJ SF 0.581
    297 Sergio Rodriguez, Por PG 0.580
    298 Chris Duhon, NY PG 0.580
    299 P.J. Brown, Bos FC 0.578
    300 Chuck Hayes, Hou PF 0.578
    301 Aaron Williams, LAC C 0.576
    302 Oleksiy Pecherov, Was PF 0.576
    303 Chucky Atkins, Den PG 0.575
    304 Michael Finley, SA SF 0.574
    305 Malik Rose, NY PF 0.574
    306 Ryan Hollins, Cha C 0.573
    307 Daniel Gibson, Cle PG 0.570
    308 Raja Bell, Pho SG 0.569
    309 Reggie Evans, Phi PF 0.569
    310 Renaldo Balkman, NY SF 0.568
    311 Donyell Marshall, Okc PF 0.568
    312 Adonal Foyle, Orl C 0.568
    313 Paul Davis, LAC C 0.567
    314 Jason Kapono, Tor SF 0.561
    315 C.J. Watson, GS G 0.561
    316 Earl Boykins, Cha PG 0.560
    317 Matt Carroll, Cha SG 0.558
    318 Shannon Brown, Chi SG 0.557
    319 Stephane Lasme, Mia F 0.553
    320 Fred Jones, NY SG 0.552
    321 Dwayne Jones, Cle C 0.548
    322 Ben Wallace, Cle C 0.547
    323 Mike James, NO PG 0.541
    324 Shane Battier, Hou SF 0.540
    325 Keith Bogans, Orl SG 0.539
    326 Daequan Cook, Mia SG 0.539
    327 Jason Hart, Uta PG 0.538
    328 Brian Cardinal, Min PF 0.538
    329 Morris Peterson, NO SG 0.538
    330 Michael Ruffin, Mil C 0.536
     
  2. Celtic Fan

    Celtic Fan Well-Known Member

    Joined:
    Dec 21, 2006
    Messages:
    6,290
    Likes Received:
    56
    Trophy Points:
    48
    can't be that great of a stat, you got 3 Nuggets rated so high and they can't even get out of the 1st round.

    there's something to be said for intangibles and chemistry, yes/no?
     
  3. tremaine

    tremaine To Win, Be Like Fitz

    Joined:
    Nov 25, 2006
    Messages:
    1,192
    Likes Received:
    5
    Trophy Points:
    38
    Occupation:
    writer, accountant & part time economist
    Location:
    North of great majority of Canadians
    <div class='quotetop'>QUOTE (Celtic Fan @ Jul 12 2008, 04:25 AM) <{POST_SNAPBACK}></div><div class='quotemain'>can't be that great of a stat, you got 3 Nuggets rated so high and they can't even get out of the 1st round.

    there's something to be said for intangibles and chemistry, yes/no?</div>


    How good each player is is on each player. How good the players are form the building blocks for a team, and which building blocks are available is the responsibility of the front office and, to some degree, the owner. What is built or not built with the building blocks is entirely the responsibility of the coaching staff.

    So if the Nuggets are chock loaded with talented players, thanks to those players efforts, and thanks to the front office and owner getting them, it is a total scandal that they can not win a playoff series, and a humiliation that they could not win a single playoff game. Scandal and humiliation against who now? The coaches, because they had as good or better a set of building blocks than any other coaches did, yet could not do anything with them other than get their full share of obvious regular season wins against lessor and middle level teams.

    I don't have the time to do it now, but I would wager I could easily prove the same with any reasonable combination player measurement: that the Nuggets are chock loaded with high performing players.

    The more I have worked with this measure, the more I have realized that, even though it is no where near as complicated as the Hollinger per, it is somewhere between slightly and substantially better than it is. I am particularly impressed with the 1.4 factors installed for assists and blocks, which adjusts these critical things so that they are closer in value to a 2-point score than if you just counted them straight up.
     
  4. cpawfan

    cpawfan Monsters do exist

    Joined:
    Jun 5, 2007
    Messages:
    8,703
    Likes Received:
    12
    Trophy Points:
    38
    Where is your mathematical proof that this is the, in your words, holy grail of player ratings?

    What is the statistical basis for using the multipliers that you have used?
     
  5. Answer_AI03

    Answer_AI03 JBB JustBBall Member

    Joined:
    Sep 13, 2005
    Messages:
    1,428
    Likes Received:
    3
    Trophy Points:
    38
    you dont need numbers to prove the nuggets coaching staff is a bunch of jackasses. On top of that, they just let go of Najera who was the only player that made an attempt at defense, and was a true glue guy for this team. I think the key to this year will be AI and Anthony leading the team in having a defensive mindset (if thats even possible) followed by Smith and Kleiza leading by example off the bench. I know its a stretch, but this is the most talented team in the league. and if they WANT to they can be the best team too.
     
  6. 44Thrilla

    44Thrilla cuatro cuatro

    Joined:
    Jun 23, 2004
    Messages:
    14,113
    Likes Received:
    215
    Trophy Points:
    63
    Leon Powe is a top 30 NBA player!

    I had no idea...
     
  7. Really Lost One

    Really Lost One Suspended

    Joined:
    Jan 25, 2005
    Messages:
    12,734
    Likes Received:
    14
    Trophy Points:
    0
    Location:
    United States
    So Amare Stoudimire is better than Lebron James, Chris Paul, Kobe Bryant, Tim Duncan, and everyone else in the NBA...

    Okay, you don't need to look any further than player #1 to figure out these ratings mean absolutely nothing.
     
  8. tremaine

    tremaine To Win, Be Like Fitz

    Joined:
    Nov 25, 2006
    Messages:
    1,192
    Likes Received:
    5
    Trophy Points:
    38
    Occupation:
    writer, accountant & part time economist
    Location:
    North of great majority of Canadians
    <div class='quotetop'>QUOTE (cpawfan @ Jul 13 2008, 01:20 PM) <{POST_SNAPBACK}></div><div class='quotemain'>Where is your mathematical proof that this is the, in your words, holy grail of player ratings?

    What is the statistical basis for using the multipliers that you have used?</div>

    The reason its the holy grail is that there is nothing better I have seen. Most statistics, whether or not weighted, are just counts without giving you the per time measure. The statistics that do give you per time measures are generally one variable, as if everyone is embarrassed to combine items when doing per time. What is there to be afraid of?

    The statistical basis is that these are the ESPN factors, and I don't yet believe I have the computer wherewithal to tweak the factors and make my own underlying measure. Right now, my technological capability is such that it would take me 40-100 hours of work to produce this if I tweaked the numbers and made my own statistic, whereas I can do the whole thing, lock, stock, and barrel, in about 5 hours while starting with ESPN. Yet my tweaks would only be moving players up or down, by at the very most, 10 ranks or so.

    But I could be grossly underestimating what I could do database wise, since I have never made a full scale effort as of yet, only partial efforts. If only there was a place on the internet where you could simply operate a database without being a veteran database programmer. There probably is, but I have not found it yet!

    If and when I get "full database capability," which is one of a few major computer things I am still green on, I would tweak as follows.

    The main remaining shortcoming with the Real Player Rating is that it underweights defense to some extent, and it underweights made them miss defending severely, because it does not count it at all. Since made them miss defending can not be exactly measured statistically, and so is left out by literally everyone, the last thing you should do is have relatively small weights on any defensive factors that you can count, so one of the most important tweaks I would do would be to upgrade steals to 1.5. I would also upgrade blocks and assists very slightly to 1.5.

    I would bump up turnovers from .7 to between 1.0 and 1.2, because they so often lead to easy scores, and so they are a defensive liabilty. And I would bump up the miss shot subtractions from .8 to 1.0.

    As it stand now, the total points awarded for a field goal is 3: the points plus 1.0 per made shot. The points awarded for a three is 3.5: the three points plus .5 for the made three. I see the rationale for the bonuses, but I don't see the rationale for the different bonus amounts, so I would make both of them .7 or .8.

    All of these tweaks, as I said, would change player ranks by, at the most, about 10 positions. You can tweak to your heart's content, but you are not going to change your view of reality very much, as long as your initial, basic approach is comprehensive and smart.

    Finally, if I was really on a perfection binge, I would attempt to do the near impossible, by installing some kind of adjustment for made them miss defending. One approach I could take would be to start with the pace adjusted defensive efficiency of each team, and normalize that so that the resulting impact on the Real Player Ratings would be up or down by, at the most 10%, relative to the median Real Player Rating, which is about .700. For example, all of the Nuggets would immediately suffer a 4-8% hit on their ratings, lol.

    After I did that, I could then profit from putting players into just one of 3 categories: above average made them miss defender, average, and below average. Then the players would get both the team adjustment and the adjustment for their category, which would be about another 8% up, zero, and 8% down.

    But if I could ever find any assistance at all on the internet on rating made them miss defending, I could increase the number of categories in which players could go, increasing the accuracy.

    I am already using a 38% total adjustment range when I adjust the ratings for the Nuggets, up to 19% up and up to 19% down.

    Another approach to tackling the near impossible, if I was attempting to do the entire NBA, while ignoring the team defense measure, would be to simply divide players into 5 categories. The highest adjustments I could confidently do, with no assistance from anywhere, would be: up 10%, up 5%, no change, down 5%, and down 10%.

    So in summary, there are two long term projects planned for the Real Player Rating:

    1. Conversion to use of my database and custom formula. (Target: 2009-2010)
    2. Addition of carefully estimated made them miss defending adjustments. (Target: 2010-2011)

    Right now, it's as good or better than anything out there. These two projects would make it close to perfect.
     
  9. Celtic Fan

    Celtic Fan Well-Known Member

    Joined:
    Dec 21, 2006
    Messages:
    6,290
    Likes Received:
    56
    Trophy Points:
    48
    see this is the problem with relying on stats, they just do not tell the whole story.

    does the guy getting say 20 ppg do it within the framework of the team? Or does he do it in spite of teamwork and 'get his' and is more concerned about that.

    does a guy average 20 ppg bu turn the ball over, play horrid D forcing team mates to slide of on help D thus stopping the first players man, but having the man they left score on them?

    you can only observe such things by watching games. Stats are a great way to help evaluate a player but having seen how they achieve such stats are what determines a players worth.

    It's like bill simmons says about drafting players. Why do GM's ignore a players playing resume for some drills and athletic measurements? Why look at just stats? It doesn't tell the entire story.
     
  10. tremaine

    tremaine To Win, Be Like Fitz

    Joined:
    Nov 25, 2006
    Messages:
    1,192
    Likes Received:
    5
    Trophy Points:
    38
    Occupation:
    writer, accountant & part time economist
    Location:
    North of great majority of Canadians
    <div class='quotetop'>QUOTE (Thrilla @ Jul 13 2008, 01:38 PM) <{POST_SNAPBACK}></div><div class='quotemain'>Leon Powe is a top 30 NBA player!

    I had no idea...</div>

    As long as he stops his share of shots from going in, he was in fact a top 30 NBA player in 2007-08.

    There ended up being a lot more forwards than guards with very high ratings, but low minutes. There were 7 forwards and 1 guard among the top 100 players, who did not play at least 20 minutes per game.

    This is a strong clue that the guard positions are tougher to excel in than are the forward positions, and/or that there are currently more really good forwards in the NBA than really good guards. It's really two sides of the same coin.

    Among the top 100 players, there was a grand total of one guard who did not get to play at least 20 minutes per game: JR Smith. This makes Karl's decision making even more wrong, and it was already just about as wrong as you can get! Thanks though, for getting me to check this, because when it comes to criticizing this coach, I will never be finished until he is gone, or until I switch to the Raptors or something.
     
  11. tremaine

    tremaine To Win, Be Like Fitz

    Joined:
    Nov 25, 2006
    Messages:
    1,192
    Likes Received:
    5
    Trophy Points:
    38
    Occupation:
    writer, accountant & part time economist
    Location:
    North of great majority of Canadians
    <div class='quotetop'>QUOTE (Celtic Fan @ Jul 13 2008, 02:32 PM) <{POST_SNAPBACK}></div><div class='quotemain'>see this is the problem with relying on stats, they just do not tell the whole story.

    does the guy getting say 20 ppg do it within the framework of the team? Or does he do it in spite of teamwork and 'get his' and is more concerned about that.

    does a guy average 20 ppg bu turn the ball over, play horrid D forcing team mates to slide of on help D thus stopping the first players man, but having the man they left score on them?

    you can only observe such things by watching games. Stats are a great way to help evaluate a player but having seen how they achieve such stats are what determines a players worth.

    It's like bill simmons says about drafting players. Why do GM's ignore a players playing resume for some drills and athletic measurements? Why look at just stats? It doesn't tell the entire story.</div>

    If a player has coaches who don't really know what they are doing, there is no chance for him or anyone on his team to become an optimized team player, so if that player ends up, in effect, concentrating as much or more on his personal production than on optimizing his team's offense or defense, whether unconsciously or consciously, than how much can you blame him? What else is there for him to do?

    Players are payed to play, and coaches are payed to coach. Coaching is more complicated than playing, but being able to play at the NBA level is more rare than being smart enough to coach a team correctly. There are many thousands of people who are smart enough to coach the Nuggets better than they are coached, but no where near as many who can play as well as Anthony, Iverson, Smith, Camby, and Martin.

    Players can not be expected to coach themselves, though smart, veteran players can do it to some extent. But it is almost ridiculous to say: "Carmelo Anthony and J.R. Smith, you did not have a clue as to making sure the Nuggets optimized and played like a team, so you are not really good basketball players." No, they are still great players who, by the way, never graduated from college, so they probably could not if they wanted to figure out how to coach the Nuggets.

    On the other hand, as I said, great players with a huge amount of experience, such as the Celtics big three this year, are able to instinctively coach themselves to some extent, which reduced the Laker's coaching advantage over the Celtics, which in turn allowed the Celtics to win the series in just 6 games.
     
  12. Really Lost One

    Really Lost One Suspended

    Joined:
    Jan 25, 2005
    Messages:
    12,734
    Likes Received:
    14
    Trophy Points:
    0
    Location:
    United States
    So Leon Powe is a better player than Paul Pierce?

    Amare Stoudimire is the best player in the league?
     
  13. tremaine

    tremaine To Win, Be Like Fitz

    Joined:
    Nov 25, 2006
    Messages:
    1,192
    Likes Received:
    5
    Trophy Points:
    38
    Occupation:
    writer, accountant & part time economist
    Location:
    North of great majority of Canadians
    <div class='quotetop'>QUOTE (Answer_AI03 @ Jul 13 2008, 01:32 PM) <{POST_SNAPBACK}></div><div class='quotemain'>you dont need numbers to prove the nuggets coaching staff is a bunch of jackasses. On top of that, they just let go of Najera who was the only player that made an attempt at defense, and was a true glue guy for this team. I think the key to this year will be AI and Anthony leading the team in having a defensive mindset (if thats even possible) followed by Smith and Kleiza leading by example off the bench. I know its a stretch, but this is the most talented team in the league. and if they WANT to they can be the best team too.</div>

    True that.

    The Nuggets are lacking only perimeter defense, they have interior defense down. They are the worst perimeter defense team in the NBA! It's time for the Nuggets to overcompensate: they need to gamble a little more on defense, go for steals and get right in the face of the 3-point shooters, even at the risk of a few 3-point fouls. How can you lose from gambling when you are the worst perimeter defense team in the NBA? You can't lose. George Karl should be encouraging AI and JR to gamble, within reason, not cringing and biting his nails over violations of his style book.

    The Nuggets need to spend damn near half of their practice time on how to defend the outside in general and the perimeter in particular, including, obviously, how to cover and rotate out to the perimeter, to cut down on open threes.

    If Marcus Camby is hell bent on getting 20 rebounds, then let him do it, and don't be afraid of Kenyon Martin and/or Carmelo Anthony going way out to contest a three.

    The three point shot was instituted not only to award the extra skill needed to make a longer shot, but also to penalize teams who try to play defense on the cheap, by loading up the interior defense. The Nuggets need to realize this obvious reality, and refocus their defense, or continue to be burned by outside shooting.

    The Nuggets need to surrender a few more points on the inside, so that they can cut down on what they give up, by a greater number of points, what they surrender on the outside. The defense is badly unbalanced, so job one is to refocus it. Putting in more defensive effort without refocusing it isn't going to work.
     
  14. tremaine

    tremaine To Win, Be Like Fitz

    Joined:
    Nov 25, 2006
    Messages:
    1,192
    Likes Received:
    5
    Trophy Points:
    38
    Occupation:
    writer, accountant & part time economist
    Location:
    North of great majority of Canadians
    <div class='quotetop'>QUOTE (Brian @ Jul 13 2008, 03:10 PM) <{POST_SNAPBACK}></div><div class='quotemain'>So Leon Powe is a better player than Paul Pierce?

    Amare Stoudimire is the best player in the league?</div>

    Stoudemire and LeBron James were essentially tied as the best players in the NBA. Why Steve Kerr thought the Suns had to have O'Neal to win it all, over Shawn Marion, is beyond me. They already had enough on that team to win it all. And they had a coach who could do it, too.

    Powe was essentially tied with Pierce; the .005 difference is miniscule. Of course, Pierce played more than twice as much as Powe, so he was much more important to the Celtics than Powe was. And if you know that Powe would have fallen off if given more burn, then you know that Pierce is really better. But this tells you that Powe was virtually a star in his role as a reserve. He deserves to be where he is at.

    I think my base formula tweaks would put Pierce ahead of Powe by a little, but I simply don't know who is the better made them miss defender. If Powe is a slightly better made them miss defender than Pierce is, then they could be tied again.

    Now if you want to determine who is really better between closely ranked players, simply ask yourself, who is the better made them miss defender? Because the tweaks are small potatoes compared to the made them miss defending adjustment that you can make. How many shots did each player prevent from going in the hoop per 12 minutes (or whatever period of time you want)? And how good are these players at being in position to try to prevent a shot from going in in the first place?
     
  15. tremaine

    tremaine To Win, Be Like Fitz

    Joined:
    Nov 25, 2006
    Messages:
    1,192
    Likes Received:
    5
    Trophy Points:
    38
    Occupation:
    writer, accountant & part time economist
    Location:
    North of great majority of Canadians
    Consider how stupid it was for Karl to have pressured, over the past couple of seasons, C Anthony to get more rebounds, calling it one of the most important things he must do to be a full success. You have on the Nuggets Marcus Camby, the ultmate rebounding machine, and Kenyon Martin, no rebounding slouch either. You also had, at the time Karl concocted his orders to Melo, Nene, an excellent rebounder, and you also had (until now) Najera, who everyone keeps emphasizing is a defensive oriented player, with defensive rebounding a part of being a good defensive player. You also had and still do have Linas Kleiza, a surprisingly good forward who is certainly good enough to get some rebounds. Why in the hell would anyone think that it would be good for the Nuggets if Carmelo Anthony hangs close to the hoop to get more defensive rebounds?

    Remember the spectacle of Camby and Melo fighting over rebounds? What was that all about? It was Camby in effect saying, what the hell are you doing in here, buddy?

    By telling Anthony to do this, you are indirectly excusing him in advance for relatively open and wide open midrange and longer twos, and of course threes. How can he learn how to get where he needs to be to be able to contest shots when he is honing in on rebounds? So is it any wonder that the Nuggets became the worst outside defensive team in the NBA, easily victimized by good passing, good assisting, and good outside shooting? You had guards who desperately needed defensive help and you told Carmelo Anthony to go for more rebounds instead of telling him to help out the guards!

    I'm not saying he shouldn't go for more rebounds if Nene is out, or if Camby is off, or whatever, but for the Coach to make it a seasons long project for Anthony to get more rebounds was stupid from the Nuggets point of view. If Karl was coaching a bad rebounding team, it would be another story, but he was not. At the time he ordered Melo to get more rebounds or be considered a partial failure as a player, Nene and several other great rebounders were fully available. So it was a coaching error, pure and simple.

    But Melo's next team, if it is not that good of a rebounding team, will be very thankful for Melo being able to rebound more, even though it actually hurt the Nuggets for him to learn how to do that.
     
  16. GMJ

    GMJ Suspended

    Joined:
    Aug 2, 2007
    Messages:
    12,067
    Likes Received:
    30
    Trophy Points:
    0
    <div class='quotetop'>QUOTE (tremaine @ Jul 13 2008, 04:37 PM) <{POST_SNAPBACK}></div><div class='quotemain'>Pierce played more than twice as much as Powe, so he was much more important to the Celtics than Powe was.</div>

    effect->cause?

    Pierce is much more important than Powe is to the Celtics, so he played more than twice as him.
     
  17. tremaine

    tremaine To Win, Be Like Fitz

    Joined:
    Nov 25, 2006
    Messages:
    1,192
    Likes Received:
    5
    Trophy Points:
    38
    Occupation:
    writer, accountant & part time economist
    Location:
    North of great majority of Canadians
    ^^^
    Maybe Karl was just trying to get Carmelo into the top 10 in the Real Player Ratings, which was accomplished by him getting more rebounds. Remember that made them miss defending gets you nothing in this or any other rating.

    lol.
     
  18. tremaine

    tremaine To Win, Be Like Fitz

    Joined:
    Nov 25, 2006
    Messages:
    1,192
    Likes Received:
    5
    Trophy Points:
    38
    Occupation:
    writer, accountant & part time economist
    Location:
    North of great majority of Canadians
    <div class='quotetop'>QUOTE (GMJigga @ Jul 13 2008, 04:32 PM) <{POST_SNAPBACK}></div><div class='quotemain'><div class='quotetop'>QUOTE (tremaine @ Jul 13 2008, 04:37 PM) <{POST_SNAPBACK}></div><div class='quotemain'>Pierce played more than twice as much as Powe, so he was much more important to the Celtics than Powe was.</div>

    effect->cause?

    Pierce is much more important than Powe is to the Celtics, so he played more than twice as him.
    </div>

    How about this for a shock: as long as Powe and Pierce are about equal in being where they need to be to try to force missed shots, and in actually forcing missed shots, and assuming that Powe has the stamina and energy needed, than the Celtics would have been about as good had the playing times been reversed.

    I know that is shocking and unbelievable to many. But this is one of the main reasons I do the Real Player Ratings: to uncover surprising but true things about the players and the teams, such as this. And the shock factor is precisely why ESPN itself would never do a statistic such as this, because zillions of people would be claiming that the statistic was wack, either because they didn't really understand the per time concept, or because they did understand it and refused to believe it has any merit.
     
  19. GMJ

    GMJ Suspended

    Joined:
    Aug 2, 2007
    Messages:
    12,067
    Likes Received:
    30
    Trophy Points:
    0
    Ah yes, the ever important truth. So do you think the Celtics would be just as good if they only played Paul Pierce 14 minutes? What if they then gave Leon Powe 36?
     
  20. cpawfan

    cpawfan Monsters do exist

    Joined:
    Jun 5, 2007
    Messages:
    8,703
    Likes Received:
    12
    Trophy Points:
    38
    Just to be clear, we have a mathematically unproven base model taken to a per-minute level and then a subjective determination of defense added as a component.
     

Share This Page