Reading all the threads and different topics within aspects of the offseason I decided to kind of create my own perceived summary of how I see it and what I think we should do. Feel free to add your own overall summary as well. Where the team stands The Blazers are currently the youngest team in the NBA. What set's them apart is they have scraped into the playoffs the last 2 seasons while other young teams are sitting waiting for lottery balls to pop up... And again Portland is the youngest. As things stand right now today we could roll this same team out next year and in all likelihood this team would move up in the standings from where they finished this season. In other words no significant changes are necessary. Luxury Tax The Blazers will be over the Luxury Tax threshold if they don't shed some salary by the last game of the regular season in 2018. They also won't have to worry about repeat offender implications until the last game of the regular season in 2020. So while they will be paying Luxury tax rates, Paul Allen is the only person who really should care about that, aka it's not my problem. The Bigger issue with salaries The bigger issue with salaries is some of the players likely are going to be hard to move this summer due to the size of their salaries. Crabbe coming off a sub-par season and foot surgery will be tough. Turner again sub-par season and nagging injuries for the season are the big 2. Harkless and Leonard from a pure financial aspect aren't the killers. How does the team move forward? If Olshey tries to make changes to fix all the issues in one offseason there is a huge risk of losing the momentum the team already has going. Smaller tweaks, as well as setting things up to address the Luxury Tax can be put in motion, I'm going to bank on the idea that Paul Allen is fully aware of the Luxury Tax issue and was willing to write the checks. IMO we should be setting the table for when those contracts become easier to move, when they are on shorter deals. Right now with our team salary so front loaded in Dame and CJ and likely Nurk after next season we need to be looking at economical solutions for the bench. Talent for $ that in my eyes equates to players on rookie deals and/or Players signed for MLE. My strategy if I were GM #1 goal, don't screw up whats already going well. The 1st step is using my draft picks wisely to fortify what we already have. We are pretty well covered in the back court (Dame, CJ, Crabbe, Napier, Turner, Pat) and we have a pretty decent collection of SF by committee (Hark, Turner, Aminu, Layman even Crabbe). Front court has some serious depth issues and needs a boost (Nurk, Vonleh, Davis, Leonard). The draft needs to be used to boost PF/C position off the bench, and also to potentially add players that can relieve the stress of eventually unloading Crabbe/Turner etc... Next would be try to find a smallish move to trim a little extra salary by 2020. Draft Between #15 and #20 I believe the team needs to walk away with a C and a tall (6'10"+) PF/C these 2 pieces will be the guys that back up Nurkic and possible push Vonleh to start eventually. Of course BPA should always be the game plan and luckily for the Blazers BPA from 15-20 in most mocks is all posts that would meet our needs. #15 Justin Patton (next 2 options John Collins, Jarrett Allen) #20 Ivan Rabb (next 2 options Isaiah Hartenstein, TJ Leaf) #26 is an interesting spot, we can easily make room for 2 draft picks by letting go of Ezeli and Quarterman. To make room for another we would need to either let go of Pat or make a consolidation trade. Best move here is simply BPA regardless of position. But if going by need for future I want a tall combo guard so... #26 Derek White (next 2 Jordan Bell, Bam Adebayo) Trades Let's face it Trades are the sexy NBA transaction we all love, but a GM can only make trades as a Plan A while banking on Plan B or even Plan C as the realistic approach. Essentially, NO can't stake his offseason on making a trade. But here are a couple salary relieving trades one of which clears a roster spot for #26. Option A Meyers Leonard to Minnesota for Pekovic (Waive Pek) Pekovic is done but still on the books for 2017/2018, so an expiring deal. Option B Meyers Leonard to New Orleans for Omer Asik and future 2nd round pick(s) Asik's contrack is non-guaranteed for 2019/2020 if waived by June 30 2019 Those are just a couple quick ideas to help nudge us to a better salary place before that Repeat Offender kicks in. Other trades to consider would be combining Davis and Aminu to consolidate a bit. Projected Camp Roster PG Lillard - Napier - White SG McCollum - Crabbe - Pat SF Turner - Harkless - Layman PF Vonleh - *Aminu - Rabb C Nurkic - *Davis - Patton
Using three 1st round Draft picks to get three 3rd string guys seems quite underwhelming. That doesn't really help the team at all. If that is the best we could do, trade them all.
I almost added a *note to indicate that 3rd string is really only this season, mostly due to the presence of other guys (Davis/Aminu) that should be gone after this upcoming season. It allows us to ease them into the system without the added pressure of having to contribute right away. Also Note I called it camp roster, not end of season playoff roster.
No need to cut anyone else. Rosters are expanding to 17. So, just declining the final year of Ezeli's contract gives us enough roster spots to add all three draft picks. I don't follow this line of reasoning. We are a small market team that can't attract top free agents, even when we have the cap space to offer a max contract, which we won't have for several years. We also won't suck bad enough any time soon to land a top 5 pick in the draft. So, trades are the best way to improve our team. If I was Neil, I would absolutely go all in on trying to pry Paul George away from IND. I'd offer them all three draft picks and an additional lottery protected pick in 2019 (if necessary) and well as anyone on the roster besides Dame, C.J. and Nurk (but I'd really try to keep Vonleh, if possible). How else are we going to add a 4-time all star, who fits in with our timeline, to this roster? I'd absolutely swing for the fences and do everything I could to add Paul George to our current Big 3 of Dame, Nurk and C.J. If that fails, Plan B would be to keep the picks and draft the three best players we can get in this very deep draft. If we can't get PG13, that's a damn solid fall back plan. Especially, as this draft seems to be very deep in big men that will be available where we are picking. If we can't get Paul George, at least we would find ourselves in the fortuitous position where drafting BPA would also address a need. No need to chose one over the other. I'm curious why you didn't even mention the possibility of a Paul George trade, as it's been the hot topic around here the last few days. Do you not want to trade our picks for George, or do you not think we have a realistic chance of completing such a trade? BNM
IMO a GM can't build their offseason plan by saying "I'm going to trade for Paul George". That doesn't mean that as a GM you don't try to do so. I don't think we will be able to trade for Paul George without giving up significant pieces that will make it feel like a reset again. If we could trade Crabbe, Harkless and the 3 picks then sure, but then we still haven't fixed our backup Post issues at all and we then don't have tangible assets to move for better posts. You could call my summary the "Plan B" in the scenario I lined out, or basically the minimum, but safe plan.
No but my thoughts are more valuable than most so it's deserving of it's own thread. Mostly I wanted to consolidate all the ideas off the offseason into a single thread instead of scattered all over.
OK, my summary; start at the top and work down. Try to make a trade to get either Butler or George or any other difference-maker who is available. If that doesn't work, try to trade up in the draft, I would like to get far enough up to get a SF like Tatum or Josh Jackson, probably not possible so would be OK with getting far enough up to take Jonathan Isaac. If that's not possible try to trade up for Zack Collins. If none of that is possible, draft for BPA, especially for potential, guys with lots of confidence, and either develop them or use in trades in the future. Trade Leonard for anything but don't attach draft picks. Wait on the other guys until a better opportunity presents itself or until they play enough better to make themselves more valuable (and their contracts shorter).
All off season plans require several contingency plans, but I think you make your dream scenario your Plan A. You can't ever achieve it if you don't at least try. If it becomes obvious that that one isn't happening, you immediately move to Plan B. IND has said they are willing to trade Paul George rather than risk losing him to free agency, without compensation, next summer. He will be traded and he will go to the highest bidder. Since trading him signals IND is in complete rebuild mode, draft picks are the most valuable trade commodity and we happen to have more 1st round picks in this draft than anyone else. It may seem like a pipe dream to some, but I don't think us getting Paul George is completely delusional. So, you go all in for George, but if you don't get the deal made on, or before, draft day, your proceed with your Plan B. You don't pass on a talent like Paul George because you still have other needs to address. If we add PG13 to Dame, C.J. and Nurk, we will become a destination for cheap vets who want to win. We can pick up one, or two of those guys, to help with the back up 4 and 5 spots. A guy like Kyle O'Quinn is cheap and rumored to be available. Hell, IND would gladly give us (more accurately force us to take) Al Jefferson as part of a Paul George trade. I'd be perfectly happy with Big Al backing up Nurk for the next season, or two (the second season would be at our discretion, since it's not fully guaranteed). If we become a win now (or at least win soon) team by adding Paul George, there will ways, other than the draft, to address our bench needs (MLE, vet min, other minor trades. etc.). Getting a talent like Paul George is the hard part. Addressing the other needs is easy, by comparison. If Neil can pull a rabbit out of his hat (other the other end) and land us Paul George, I am 100% confident he will come up with a way to address our other needs. BNM
Just to further emphasize this point. Last summer, GSW had to trade Andrew Bogut and let Maurice Speights and Festus Ezili walk in order to clear enough cap space to sign Kevin Durant. At that time of the Durant signing, their font court was severely depleted. Then, they went out a signed Zaza Pachulia, JaVale McGee and David West for a LOT less money and the play of their front court did not suffer at all. If anything, it got better as the three replacements were healthier and more durable than the guys they replaced. Outgoing: Andrew Bogut: $12,000,000 Maurice Speights: $3,815,000 Festus Ezeli: $2,008,748 Total: $17,823,748 Incoming: Zaza Pachulia: $2,898,000 David West: $1,551,659 JaVale McGee: $1,403,611 Total: $5,853,270 You don't pass on a star player like Kevin Durant or Paul George because you're worried about your role players. If you're lucky enough to add a star player, you'll be able to get the role players you need. BNM
That is technically incorrect. Rosters will still be maintained at 15 players. The new 'twist' is that there are now 2 flex-contract players. They are assigned to the DLeague and can only play/practice with the NBA for a maximum of 45-days. Also, the max salary is $275,000 on these contracts. If the NBA team wants them around longer, they have to be signed to an NBA contract and count against the 15-man roster. No 1st round pick will be willing to sign this type of contract. It remains to be seen if a team like Portland (who doesn't have a DLeague team) will find much value in these flex contracts. Also, it will be interesting to see how many of the DLeague players will sign these contracts. If they sign them, then only 1 team has their rights & only 1 NBA team can pull them up. I'm thinking this might effectively end the 10-day call-ups we've had in the past. http://dleaguedigest.com/2017/01/19/d-league-two-way-contracts-change-nba-landscape/
BNM I get what you are saying but one thing is missing. We already know how hard it is to draw FA's even low level ones here. We have to contend 1st before anyone else is willing to take that pay cut to be part of the Blazers. Look I'd love us to get Paul George but I have doubts it happens without giving up CJ.
@Schilly great post. I was going to do something like this but never got around to it. Thoughts: What Will and Won't Happen: Trades When it comes to trades, N.O. is a classic "Buy Low, Sell High" kind of guy. This bars certain trades suggested on these forums. N.O. will not make trades that suggest he made an error in an earlier trade or signing. Biebs for cap space will not happen - that would be admitting that signing Biebs was a mistake. A Biebs + #26 for Kyle O'Quinn type trade is much more reasonable, as it would appear that we were trading for a player instead of trying to get rid of a player (though we all know that it would be a two-fer!) N.O. won't trade ET unless it's a slam dunk. As N.O. has lamented, it's hard to get FAs to sign with Portland, and he had to grossly overpay ET to come here. FAs are less likely to sign in the future if the plight of Portland FAs is to get shipped off immediately to random locations. So, forget about ET for cap space trades, they won't happen. ET + assets for a starter is more in the realm of possibility, though. N.O. won't look to reduce cap space first, he'll do that last... Plan A is the Paul Georges/Jimmy Butlers of the world. In fact, he's been working on a bunch of these already - trades like these are often years in the making. Some say this can't happen while others have said that it's a solid 33% chance. The truth is that we as fans don't really know how the GMs around the league value our draft picks and players. In a conventional year, the picks wouldn't count for much, but this indeed appears to be a very deep draft. Plan B is the opportunistic trade a la Plumlee/Rolo/Harkless trades. He'll find a player that he sees as a potential starter or significant rotation player who others haven't seen that way, and end up with a great value (see for example, the Kyle O'Quinn trade, above). Plan C is a minor adjustment/salary cap trade, e.g. trade Crabbe for a $12 mil/year player or Biebs for a $5 mil/year player. He'll only look for these after Plan A's and B's have been exhausted. My Brave prediction for free agency: The Plan A's doesn't work out, and neither do the Plan B's. It's a tough call though, as N.O. has run a VERY tight ship, so I'll randomly go with the above KOQ trade: KOQ for Biebs + #26. It makes some sense. KOQ is 27, Portzingis is 21, Biebs is 25. KOQ played only 15.6 mpg for them last year, so not a big loss for them. They get a draft pick in a deep draft, too. We get some space. What Will and Won't Happen: Draft By all accounts, Olshey seems to be a Tier drafter. He'll draft for position only after considering which tier they're in. Tiering this draft would be an excellent subject for another thread. Because of the ages of Dame and CJ, look for him to continue to draft upperclassmen that have a shorter acclimation-to-the-league time. He has said that now that Beast is on board, he'll look for players to complement our Big 3. So, look for Olshey to place a higher value on 3 and D guys. Positionally, I don't expect N.O. will draft a PG. It's a deep PG draft, but the best should be snagged, and I think he likes Shabazz. I also don't expect him to draft a short SG. My Brave prediction for the draft: Justin Jackson at #15. Jackson is an upperclassman who's likely ready to play right away. He can handle the ball pretty well, and is a skilled offensive player. More importantly, he can fit the 3 and D guy role better than Harkless or Aminu. His shooting gives him a long term better fit than E.T. nbadraft.net has him as available to us with #15, though they have become less credible in recent years. draftexpress.com has him going #14 to the Heat - a scenario I find extremely unlikely as they need youth at almost every position EXCEPT small forward where they have Justise Winslow. I think he'll fall to us at #15, and we'll nab him a la the CJ draft. Also, it is important to note that the draft comes before free agency, and that Jackson would retain a good trade value into the free agency period. edit: http://www.basketballinsiders.com/2017-nba-consensus-mock-draft-ver-4-0/ each has Jackson gone by #15. Og and Ike seem to be the biggest question marks of the mock drafts.
From some other threads, I see people kvetching about how would the Blazers pay for big new Paul George and Nurkic contracts in the future, especially considering some of our current bloated contracts. I say, cross that bridge when you come to it and set yourself up with the best players possible in the meantime. The Crabbe, Turner and Leonard contracts will be easier to move in each subsequent year. With a big 4 of Dame/CJ/PG/Nurk, we could easily fill out the roster with cheaper contracts. IOW: I'm all in for Paul George, if we can do it without giving up Dame/CJ/Nurk. Git 'er dun, Neil.
I believe you can stash one of the 17 in Europe if I'm not mistaken, which is what I think we'll do with one pick
I say you have to try to get another allstar, needle mover with the picks if you can because even though we're young....our best players are entering prime time years in CJ and Dame....PG is the right age to fit into their demographic as opposed to a DWade type guy. That and I ain't getting any younger.
Schilly, you know I adore you, but I can't stand when people assume we'll be better if we stand pat. We basically rolled with the same team as the year before last, and got worse. Plan A has to be Paul George, or another established all star level player via trade. That player HAS to be committed to playing both ends of the floor. If that fails, plan B has to be moving at least 1-2 of the picks, and players if necessary, for either an established defensive player or to move up in the draft if there is a player the team believes can not only contribute next year, but for years to come, with growth to all star potential. Plan C would be using the 3 picks. To me, you have to swing for tge fences on 2 of tgem, and must land Bell with the 3rd. Status quo is not good enough to be taken seriously as a contender. What ever happens, we HAVE to address the 4 and 5 spots. Back up center is a huge hole, and finding a long term answer at 4, or better depth there is key.
Perfect off season for me: Paul George, and a backup 4/5. And Jordan Bell, just to make Mediocre Man happy.
I disagree 100%. No way do we even offer C.J. for what could end up being a 1-year rental of Paul George, which is what it will be is we don't have a successful season, and by successful, I mean at least top 4 seed in the West. A year ago, that may have made more sense, but IND's plans have changed. A year ago, they weren't really looking to trade Paul George. Now, they are, and in doing so, are doing a complete reset and going with a total rebuild based on youth. C.J. is only a year younger that Paul George and his $106 million extension starts with the coming season. It makes no sense for them to move a 27 year old for a 26 year old who makes $106 million. That wouldn't help their rebuilding effort, it would actually slow it down. They were entertaining offers for PG13 at the trade deadline, but were not desperate at that time, as they still believed they still had the upper had at resigning him due to the assumption that they could offer him about $75 million more than anyone else using the DPE. When George did not make one of the three All NBA teams, they lost the ability to offer him a $210 extension this summer, and unless he makes one of the All NBA teams next summer, they would lose their advantage in resigning him, which means it would be very likely, pretty much guaranteed, they would lose him for nothing. This has caused IND's plans to change and PG13's trade value to go down. It really is a bidding war. They will be in total tear down and rebuild mode. The best asset in that effort will be 1st round draft picks. Normally, that would mean at least one lottery pick, plus future first round picks and maybe a young player and/or an expiring contract in exchange for one of their bad contracts. This isn't a normal year, however. We don't have a lottery pick, but the 15th pick is the highest non-lottery pick, and we also have the 20th and 26th picks in a VERY deep draft. Three 1st round picks in those draft will REALLY help IND jump start their rebuilding effort. Throw in a youngish player, or two, to match PG13's outgoing salary, take back, one or more of their older guys and possibly throw in a protected 2019 1st round pick, and they will be hard pressed to get any better offers. BOS is really the only team that can flat out assemble a better package and they have proven very reluctant to trade away any of their assets. They will go all in to sign Gordon Hayward using cap space. That will let them keep those BRK lottery picks that they covet so dearly, and means they won't be looking to add Paul George. MIA is the other frequently mentioned trading partner. Sure they have a lottery pick, but it's #14, only one spot ahead of our non-lottery #15. Plus, it's the only 1st round pick they have in this draft. Our 15, 20 and 26 easily trumps their 14, and anything else they can offer. SAC has two lottery picks, but they need them for their own rebuild and PG13 to SAC would be an obvious 1-year rental, which makes no sense for a team that would still be in the lottery even if they added Paul George. We give George what he wants, a competitive team and we give IND what they want, the draft picks they need to jump star their rebuilding effort. No trade of C.J. McCollum necessary. BNM
We wouldn't have to contend 1st. We've never had a team with 4 all-star level players. We'd definitely have a recognizable Big 3, and Nurk was an all-star level player for us last year. The past wouldn't be comparable to the present if we landed George. Free agency would get flipped on its head.
