We all know that Zion missed the first half of the season, but in the 12 games he's played so far, he's absolutely looked like the real deal. Amazingly, with 38 fewer games played, Zion's "value over replacement" is already almost equal to Morant's. With 25 games left in the season (26 for MEM), the Pelicans are 3.5 games back of the Grizz. If Zion continues his current pace of play, and New Orleans passes Memphis (and us) for the 8 seed, does Zion have a shot at the rookie of the year? Should he have a shot? Or does Morant already have it locked up despite 1/3 of the season still remaining?
Zion is the best rookie, but Morant (as long as he doesn't go into the tank or get hurt) will win the award due to playing well for the full season. Amazingly, Zion perhaps should win the award despite the missed time--as you said, he's nearly caught Morant in terms of accumulated value--but I don't think awards-voters will see it that way.
NBA has precedence here. In 2017, Malcolm Brogdan won ROY over Embiid who missed 51 games while having clearly lesser stats and impact. Morant is better than Brogdan was his rookie year, but Zion is very obviously the better player.
In that case, Brogdon's team made the playoffs, and was 14 games better than Embiid's. In this case, the guy who missed time will have come back early enough and impactfully enough to lead his team past the ROY frontrunner. Might that make a difference?
I believe it closes after the end of the season, but before the playoffs begin. I'm sure there will be plenty of voters who submit their votes before the season ends, and those voters have already made their minds up, and will not care what happens the rest of the way.
Should they just start giving it out at the all-star break? Or rename it "rookie of the first 2/3 of the year"?
Id rather it go to someone who was unstoppable for 75% of the games than someone who couldnt even play for 50% of the games, if we're going down that path.
Maybe if Ja wasn't so good and there was no other worthy candidate then I would maybe consider Zion despite the missed games, but Ja has been really good and he has played most of the season. It's yet to be seen how long Zion can keep this up too.
Ja has been pretty good, no doubt. And I assume he'll continue to be equally as good over their remaining 26 games in the toughest stretch of their schedule, mostly against teams battling for playoff positioning and game-planning for him.
If he stays healthy I think there's no doubt that Zion will continue putting up the same numbers. He's a freak.
Even after watching a few of Zion's games, I'd rather have Morant than Zion. For one I think New Orleans has a much better team around Zion then Morant has, Zion's also had the privilege of playing the Blazer's interior defense twice in his short stint in the NBA.
No, but it's not like Morant hasn't been playing at a high level and he has been doing it for a full season. Unless Morant falls off the ledge and either gets hurt or starts playing poorly, it's his to lose. It's also been yet to see if Zion remains healthy the rest of the year. They are both pretty spectacular but the most games Zion can play this year is only 37 games. Not near enough to be in the hunt.
All true. None of these statements are in dispute See, I am of the opinion that it's possible for one great player to be more impactful, more impressive, more valuable in 37 games than another good player is over 75. Not saying that will be the case, but if Zion keeps up for the rest of the season what he's done so far, and the Pelicans make the playoffs, there will absolutely be an argument that he was.
I'm not sure if Morant is being overrated or Zion is being underrated. Morant has been really good for a rookie, but he hasn't been great relative to the entire NBA. Zion has been great compared to the entire NBA. Now, that could of course be a small sample size, considering how few games he's played, and he'll come back to Earth. But if Williamson keeps up this level of production, I definitely think 37 games of what he's providing is worth as much or more than 75 of what Morant is. In other words, I think Williamson is playing at a level that's at least twice as impactful as Morant. Advanced stats back that up. IMO, the eye test does too.
