Exclusive A statistical look at the 2020 NBA Draft

Discussion in 'Portland Trail Blazers' started by 42N8Bounce, Nov 15, 2020.

  1. 42N8Bounce

    42N8Bounce Red Hot And Rebuilding

    Joined:
    Dec 17, 2011
    Messages:
    2,575
    Likes Received:
    7,118
    Trophy Points:
    113
    Location:
    West Linn, OR
    Each year I like to take a look at the top draft prospects and see how their stats measure up against past years.

    I first do a measurement similar to PERs, but it takes into account additional factors such as age, team W/L, strength of schedule, and shooting efficiency. That’s the second of the two numbers noted below by the players names.

    I then compare the stats of the player to be drafted to a database of over 3,000 previous college players. Finding comps based on stats alone is a challenge. I weigh different factors such as class, height, top skill (assists, rebounds, steels, blocks, 3 pt shooting, etc...), overall game impact, scoring, etc. I then take the top 8 comps and weigh their NBA success to get the player’s final stat score. That’s the first of the two numbers noted below by the players name.

    Here’s the list of the top players in this draft, along with a few of their stats comp matches.

    (100.0, 100.0) J Wiseman – Hassan Whiteside, Kevin Love, Anthony Davis, Kevin Durant
    (98.6, 86.7) O Toppin – Trey Thompkins, Drew Gooden, Greg Smith, Jared Sullinger
    (89.4, 69.4) J Smith – Emeka Okafor, Shelden Williams, Ed Davis, David West
    (75.2, 67.8) D Dotson – Gilbert Arenas, Kemba Walker, Terry Rozier, Devin Harris
    (73.8, 59.7) S Bey – Jason Kapono, Kyle Korver, Rodney Hood, Wally Szczerbiak
    (67.6, 68.6) V Carey – Ben Simmons, Kevin Durant, Eddie Griffin, Noah Vonleh
    (62.7, 58.3) D Oturu – Wayne Simien, Pascal Siakam, David West, Shelden Williams
    (59.0, 59.5) O Okongwu – Tony Mitchell, DJ White, Chris Bosh, Andrew Nicholson
    (57.7, 59.6) R Perry – David West, Shelden Williams, Wayne Simien, Jared Sullinger
    (57.3, 47.2) U Azubuike – Todd MacCulloch, Drew Gordon, Raef LaFrentz, Jeff Foster
    (52.7, 39.8) A Wiley – Aaron Gray, Curtis Borchardt, John Henson, Jeff Foster
    (52.4, 47.6) A Edwards – Ricky Davis, Wayne Ellington, Richard Hamilton, Wesley Matthews
    (50.0, 48.0) Z Nnaji – Nick Fazekas, Jahlil Okafor, Henry Ellenson, Chris Bosh
    (48.8, 75.6) X Tillman – Ryan Bowen, Trevor Booker, Jarnell Stokes, Josh Davis
    (45.9, 47.9) J Green – Kelly Oubre, Josh Howard, Will Barton, Victor Oladipo
    (44.8, 48.3) I Stewart – Terrence Jones, James Johnson, Al-Farouq Aminu, Carmelo Anthony
    (43.9, 43.7) F Petrusev – Nick Fazekas, Ryan Anderson, Drew Gooden, Glen Davis
    (41.4, 47.1) E Hughes – Brandon Roy, Richard Jefferson, Julius Hodge, Sammy Mejia
    (41.4, 59.8) N Mannion – Mike Bibby, Ramon Sessions, Baron Davis, Deron Williams
    (41.2, 72.8) A Nesmith – Casey Jacobsen, Roger Mason Jr, Kareem Rush, Richard Hamilton
    (40.9, 70.5) K Lewis – Will Conroy, Luke Ridnour, Chauncey Billups, Maalik Wayns
    (36.7, 61.5) M Jones – Joseph Forte, Jeryl Sasser, Tony Allen, Stephen Graham
    (36.5, 69.1) M Flynn – Vonteego Cummings, Trenton Hassell, Mustafa Shakur, Jermaine Jackson
    (36.1, 43.2) R Woodard II – Cartier Martin, Matt Carroll, Reggie Bullock, Derrick Byars
    (33.6, 47.6) T Bey – Robert Traylor, Trevor Booker, James Thomas, Jarnell Stokes
    (31.8, 44.7) P Williams – Terence Morris, Jeff Green, Josh Powell, Deron Washington
    (30.1, 72.0) D Vassell – Romain Sato, Vonteego Cummings, Rickey Paulding, Shan Foster
    (29.8, 56.0) P Reed – Al Horford, Josh Davis, Shelden Williams, Jarnell Stokes
    (27.0, 66.1) P Pritchard – Norris Cole, Nolan Smith, Earl Watson, Bobby Brown
    (35.6, 34.4) P Achiuwa – Paul Millsap, Tony Mitchell, Eddie Griffin, Hoah Vonleh
    (25.0, 52.9) J Ramsey – Quincy Douby, JR Giddens, OJ Mayo, Malik Beasley
    (23.2, 55.5) S Mays – DeMarcus Nelson, Richie Frahm, Tony Bobbitt, E’Twaun Moore
    (22.0, 92.8) T Halliburton – Lorenzo Brown, Jamison Brewer, Darius Morris, Pepe Sanchez
    (20.5, 38.8) C Winson – Sean SingletaryAndre Miller, Russ Smith, Chris Quinn
    (19.4, 38.8) CJ Elleby – James Ennis, Glen Rice Jr, Kim English, Tony Mitchell
    (19.3, 49.9) T Terry – Andrew Goudelock, Blake Ahearn, Anthony Roberson, Salim Stoudamire
    (19.2, 40.7) O Agbaji – Lavor Postell, Jeremy Lamb, MarShon Brooks
    (18.3, 56.9) I Okoro – Sam Young, Chirs Carrawell, Carrick Felix, Gary Forbes
    (18.3, 38.4) G Riller – Milt Palacio, Luther Head, Lynn Greer, Xavier Thames
    (18.2, 73.0) T Jones – Jarrett Jack, Wade Baldwin, Darius Morris, Acie Law
    (18.2, 61.7) D Bane – Jared Dudley, Desmond Mason, Caris LeVert, Kim English
    (17.8, 28.4) T Maxey – Keith McLeod, Josh Selby, Gal Mekel, Wayne Ellington
    (17.5, 40.9) C Stanley – Devin Green, JR Giddens, Adonis Thomas, Jeremy Lamb
    (16.7, 35.5) I Joe – Aaron Harrison, MarShon Brooks, Jeremy Lamb, Matt Walsh
    (12.5, 30.5) C Anthony – Jerryd Bayless, Nate Wolters, Armon Johnson, Blake Stepp
    (12.1, 65.7) A Hagans – Jared Jordan, Darius Morris, Jamison Brewer, Larry Drew II
    (11.1, 15.4) J McDaniels – Rod Grizzard, Matt Freije, Craig Brackins, Terence Morris
    (11.0, 38.2) I Quickley – Jermaine Taylor, Lynn Greer, Zabian Dowdell, Marcus Denmon
    (10.8, 34.6) J Nwora – Sam Jacobson, Lavor Postell, Kareem Rush, Da’Sean Butler
    (8.4, 17.9) L Stevens – Dante Cunningham, Andrae Patterson, Al Thornton, Damone Brown

    Keep in mind, these stats comp matches won't be able to pick out 'style of play' (A dunk is 2 pts just like a short jumper is 2 pts). It simply looks at the raw stats to see similarities.

    Running this in years past, it always seems to pick out a gem or two that the GMs miss (2012, Draymond Green, 2012 Will Barton, 2017 John Collins), and also miss on a few (2015 Stanley Johnson, 2015 Cliff Alexander, 2017 Caleb Swanigan). Because of past year results I’m able to adjust my measuring system and comp analysis and fine tune the results to continue to improve the accuracy.

    The draft is such a crapshoot. Players get injured. Players get drafted onto teams that don’t fit their style of play. There are so many factors that can determine a player’s success or failure. The best we can do is make educated guesses. That’s why I find this fun.

    I must note, this is not my ‘big board’. I recognized stats can’t capture everything. For example, Tyrese Halliburten has a raw stat score of 92.8. Darn good. But the program couldn’t find many comps that had good NBA success – giving him a poor ending score of 22.0. In my opinion, I think he’ll turn out to be a solid player. He’ll buck the trend of similar types of players not succeeding in the NBA.

    Let’s hope the Blazers find that diamond in the rough this year!

    upload_2020-11-15_18-7-26.png
     
    Last edited: Nov 15, 2020
  2. TBpup

    TBpup Writing Team

    Joined:
    Nov 15, 2013
    Messages:
    22,362
    Likes Received:
    34,003
    Trophy Points:
    113
    Occupation:
    Investment Management / Financial Planner
    Location:
    Lake Oswego
    Great work! :twothumbs:
     
  3. TBpup

    TBpup Writing Team

    Joined:
    Nov 15, 2013
    Messages:
    22,362
    Likes Received:
    34,003
    Trophy Points:
    113
    Occupation:
    Investment Management / Financial Planner
    Location:
    Lake Oswego
    Interesting to see as my Draft guru buddy just earlier this afternoon was saying that Smith is underrated and should be projected higher in the Draft.
     
    Hoopguru, SlyPokerDog and 42N8Bounce like this.
  4. 42N8Bounce

    42N8Bounce Red Hot And Rebuilding

    Joined:
    Dec 17, 2011
    Messages:
    2,575
    Likes Received:
    7,118
    Trophy Points:
    113
    Location:
    West Linn, OR
    Yeah, it's hard to understand why he would be undervalued -

    Jalen Smith, 6'10", 225lbs
    - Per 40: 19.8 pts, 13.4 reb, 3.0 blks, 36.8% 3FG, 60.4% 2FG, 75.0% ft, 3.0 pf

    That seems to be a pretty well rounded game there.

    NBADraft.net has him going #20
    NBCSports has him going #14
    ESPN has him going #13
    TheRinger has him going #17

    I'd consider it a steal if he were there when the Blazers select at #16.
    (Then watch Olshey pass on Smith and select Scrubb. Arrggghh!!)
     
    Buffalo Custard and TBpup like this.
  5. THE HCP

    THE HCP NorthEastPortland'sFinest

    Joined:
    Sep 16, 2008
    Messages:
    65,696
    Likes Received:
    51,897
    Trophy Points:
    113
    Location:
    N.E.P.
    No thanks.....worst draft in 30 years.
     
  6. tester551

    tester551 Well-Known Member

    Joined:
    Jan 23, 2009
    Messages:
    4,037
    Likes Received:
    3,848
    Trophy Points:
    113
    What does he say about Poku?
     
  7. kjironman1

    kjironman1 Well-Known Member

    Joined:
    May 16, 2014
    Messages:
    18,868
    Likes Received:
    19,669
    Trophy Points:
    113
    The takes on the draft are really all over the place this year.
     
    42N8Bounce and Buffalo Custard like this.
  8. TBpup

    TBpup Writing Team

    Joined:
    Nov 15, 2013
    Messages:
    22,362
    Likes Received:
    34,003
    Trophy Points:
    113
    Occupation:
    Investment Management / Financial Planner
    Location:
    Lake Oswego
    Thinks he will fit quite well in Dallas.
     
  9. PtldPlatypus

    PtldPlatypus Let's go Baby Blazers! Staff Member Global Moderator Moderator

    Joined:
    Nov 10, 2008
    Messages:
    31,952
    Likes Received:
    40,230
    Trophy Points:
    113
    They already have one 7-foot perimeter player...they need another?

    If he works out, a Doncic/Poku/Porzingis frontcourt could be unstoppable offensively.
     
  10. JDC

    JDC Well-Known Member

    Joined:
    Oct 16, 2008
    Messages:
    3,294
    Likes Received:
    3,116
    Trophy Points:
    113
    Those Nico Mannion and Elijah Hughes comps.....:cool2:
     
  11. TBpup

    TBpup Writing Team

    Joined:
    Nov 15, 2013
    Messages:
    22,362
    Likes Received:
    34,003
    Trophy Points:
    113
    Occupation:
    Investment Management / Financial Planner
    Location:
    Lake Oswego
    It would provide them a playmaker opposite of Doncic. They would be even more fun to watch than they are now.
     
  12. UKRAINEFAN

    UKRAINEFAN Well-Known Member

    Joined:
    Sep 30, 2008
    Messages:
    13,539
    Likes Received:
    10,874
    Trophy Points:
    113
    Occupation:
    un-retired
    Location:
    Autonomous Republic of Crimea, Ukraine
    Could you post your ratings from last year?
     
  13. handiman

    handiman Well-Known Member

    Joined:
    Oct 15, 2008
    Messages:
    5,503
    Likes Received:
    3,612
    Trophy Points:
    113
    Neither big-P is likely to be healthy more than 50% of the time. It's a match made in athletic tape heaven.
     
    PtldPlatypus likes this.
  14. kjironman1

    kjironman1 Well-Known Member

    Joined:
    May 16, 2014
    Messages:
    18,868
    Likes Received:
    19,669
    Trophy Points:
    113
    On a regular year you know next to nothing about how a player is going to do in the NBA.
    This year is even worse.
    Is he Tall? Yep!
    Can he dribble? Yep kinda!
    Can he shoot? Yeah when he makes them.

    I guess we go from there.
     
  15. Hoopguru

    Hoopguru Well-Known Member

    Joined:
    Sep 16, 2014
    Messages:
    19,592
    Likes Received:
    16,198
    Trophy Points:
    113
    Thats why if a player is a lights out 3 point shooter he could have a chance (Duncan Miami).
    The way the league is a run and gun league now Id rather have a knock down shooter and help him improve defense than a guy thats a solid defender but doesn't have a shot, especially a three. Simmons
     
    Last edited: Nov 16, 2020
    kjironman1 and 42N8Bounce like this.
  16. 42N8Bounce

    42N8Bounce Red Hot And Rebuilding

    Joined:
    Dec 17, 2011
    Messages:
    2,575
    Likes Received:
    7,118
    Trophy Points:
    113
    Location:
    West Linn, OR
    Nico Mannion, 6'3", 190lbs, Fr
    Per40: 17.3 pts, 6.6 ast, 2.06 a/t, 1.5 stl, 44.4% 2gf, 32.7% 3fg

    Mike Bibby, 6'1", 190lbs, Fr
    Per40: 16.5 pts, 6.4 ast, 1.78 a/t, 2.7 stl, 49.7% 2fg, 39.4% 3fg

    Ramon Sessions, 6'3", 190lbs, Fr
    Per40: 11.6 pts, 6.7 ast, 1.73 a/t, 1.9 stl, 43.5% 2fg, 22.2% 3fg



    Elijah Hughes, 6'6", 215lbs Jr
    Per40: 20.7 pts, 5.4 reb, 3.7 ast, 1.3 stl, 50.8% 2fg, 34.2% 3fg

    Brandon Roy, 6'6", 215 lbs, Jr
    Per40: 21.1 pts, 8.2 reb, 3.7 ast, 1.0 stl, 58.5% 2fg, 35.0% 3fg

    Richard Jefferson, 6'7", 222lbs, Jr
    Per40: 16.5pts, 7.9 reb, 3.9 ast, 1.1 stl, 53.5% 2fg, 34.4% 3fg


    When doing comps based purely on stats, it's a challenge to find an 'exact' match - even when pulling from a database of over 3,000 college players. One thing my program does is grab the closest 8, then averages those results. But it certainly does give you a good picture when someone talks about a players 'ceiling' and a players 'floor'. There really is a wide range that many of these players could end up at.
     
    JDC and Hoopguru like this.

Share This Page