Are we setting ourselves up for disappointment?

I've been thinking a bit lately about all of the rampant good vibes that seem to be flooding the team and the fan base, and I've begun to wonder are we getting way ahead of ourselves? Greg is pretty rusty and is coming off a huge surgery and long rehab, our starting point guard is already down with a pulled hammy, and we get to start the season entering a buzzsaw of playoff caliber teams and tough road games all of which could spell a very slow start and a big hole to try and climb out of.

So that's my question to you guys: are we expecting too much success with the, still, youngest team in the NBA? And if so, how would you react to this team missing the playoffs?

(personally I'm still standing by my prediction of 47 wins and a seventh seed)

 

Absolutely not. We've been so used to losing and disappointment we're afraid to be optimistic. I have very high hopes for this team and nothing I've seen or heard since the beginning of training camp has dissuaded me.

 

I think so.

Most posters on these boards see the team thru Rose Garden colored glasses. If I had never been to a Blazer board before and came here I'd think we had 10 all-stars and several more in waiting. There's not a whole lot of objectivity.

However, that said, we do have the makings of a very good team that has a 50/50 chance of making the playoffs this year as many teams in the west are weaker than last year. Also, in 2 or 3 years we should easily be a playoff team.

 

I'm actually with St. Nik on this one a bit. I don't think Oden will be the factor that people think--at least not right away. Even in college every other game or so Oden would come up with a 12 pt, 5-6 reb game. Out of 32 games in college, he had 9 games of 6 boards or less. He is bigger, but I don't seem him coming out of the gate quickly. He'll have a few ESPN dunks and blocks, but his overall stat line will likely be less than filling. The most interesting measure for G.O. early on will be how he plays the second half of the first game against Bynum. Will it flip the switch for him or will he get frustrated?

I also think if Blake is injured the team could be in a world of hurt early on, because nobody else (with the exception of Roy and Rudy) is ready to be a starting PG.

However, having said that, I think at least one person will step up and do better than we expect. I think Rudy will be very solid and may even join Roy in the back court if Blake is injured. I also think Bayless will make himself be ready for minutes and will be a factor after the first month or so. He has shown the ability to learn quickly in the past.

 

I don't know if you guys are setting yourselves up for disappointment. I think most of you guys have realistic expectations based on the talent of your team. There's no denying you guys are stockpiled on talent, it's just a matter of putting it all together and keeping everyone healthy.

 

I have two immediate reactions.

1- Who cares? If people have high expectations, that's great. If we don't live up to the expectations, then so be it.

2- People underestimate how much talent we have added. Fernandez is a stud and he's ready to step in and immediately contribute at a high level. Oden's defense will change games, and he's an excellent rebounder. He'll get enough easy points down low just by being bigger and stronger than any other option we had last season. Add in another year of seasoning for Aldridge and Roy...we're stacked already and 48 wins should be the basement of expectations for us.

I'd be a bit disappointed in missing the playoffs...just like I have been the last few years. But it's not going to affect whether or not I have high expectations. If we do make the playoffs, watch out...because I bet we're playing a better quality of basketball in April/May than we are in November/December.

 

As soon as the "Imagine Oden Next Year" billboard went up, we were setting ourselves up for disappointment.

 

I see so many pluses for this team that I do not think my 50 win prediction is unrealistic.

1. Stockpiled talent. (negates injury)

2. An extra BIG in the middle over last year. (adds defense, rebounds, and at least 10 more pts per game)

3. Addition of Rudy and Bayless over Jack. (adds much better passing and movement and penetration)

4. Every young player on this team has another off season of skill improvement so age is not as much of a factor.

5. Last year they came together very well and won an extra amount of games because of it. They will again.

6. Last years record was against a stacked Western Conference.

7. Some of the teams like Spurs and Dallas and Phoenix will suffer because of Huston and Portland's improvement.

8. The Rose Garden is our house and will become nearly impossible for other teams to win here.

9. I do not believe that the East has improved as much as most think. A couple of teams have though.

10. And last but not least, we will have "some" fastbreaks this year where we had nearly none. I expect at least to average at least 5 or 6 per game for at least 10 more points per game.


g Blazer

 

I don't think we are. The schedule is tough early on, but, historically, it seems previous year playoff teams take a few months to get into full gear. Whereas, the team came in early again this year, and from what we saw at the scrimmage, a lot of the players already seem in mid-season form. So, it may be a good thing the early season schedule is loaded. Jump on the good teams while they're ironing out the kinks, then clean up on the easier back end.

If you're talking about individual players--Oden and Bayless in particular-- then, yeah, I think we are. I don't think we're going to see the Oden we saw at OSU until late in the year, if at all this year. That's the player we remember and set the expectations at, so I think we're bound to be disappointed to start.

Bayless seems to still be figuring out team basketball, which should be an issue with him at his age. I think Nate will wisely pick his spots playing him, so his stats won't be eye-popping and this will probably disappoint some fans.

 

That sounds about right.

Very young team + tough early schedule = ugly. It is quite possible that the team will spend the 2nd half of the season just digging themselves out of the hole they dug in the 1st half.

 

It's very well possible that we might be expecting way too much from this team, it is also possible that this team could build upon its success from last year and make a run at the Western Conference Finals or even the 'Ship. That said this is the time of year when all we can do is rampantly guess and dream up scenarios of what will happen without even seeing our starting five play together. I think its more likely that we get far in the playoffs than that we miss them completely, but I've always been an optimist, heck even the Knicks think they can make the playoffs this year. Hah

 

Part of being a fan is expecting/hoping for great things from your team, especially when things are looking good like they are for our Trail Blazers.

 

I glad more of our fans are being optimist then the other way around. It could come back to bite us and have us being more upset then we should be if we don't do good. I'm still thinking we will be a 6th-8th seed this year. I think a lot of people are sort disappointed with Oden already but they shouldn't be. Oden hasn't play a single NBA game and hasn't played even a scrimmage until recently for over a year. He has gain muscle but still isn't in shape and hasn't got his explosive skills back or his basketball skills yet. I think he will improve as the year goes on and will be playing really well after the all star game or at least by the end of the year. I'm sure the Blazers will do ok even with the really tough first 24 games. I'm hoping they go .500 but even if they are only a little below .500 we will still be good with the tough schedule. For me it will be fun just watching them improve even if their record isn't that good at first. I predict we will have a few real good wins in the first 5 games which IMO will be a good sign for later in the year.

 

I absolutely do not think that the 8th seed is overly optimistic. Anything beyond that is gravy. Even though I expect some gravy.

 

And it's just as possible that the team will not be in the deep hole many seem to think.

g: Blazer pimp:

 

The 27 mpg Jarret Jack wasted last year will be sopped up by Rudy Fernandez.
Frye and Aldridge should no longer have to play any minutes out of position at center.
Aldridge and Roy are a year more experienced.

Those three facts alone should be worth 7-10 more wins this year.

 

We won't miss the playoffs. We might start slowly, but we'll get it going later in the season.

 

Point 3 I agree with.

Point 2 is a mixed blessing. Not to sound like a broken record, but after a year of inactivity, Oden needs and deserves time to get back in the groove. You can argue that having Frye and LMA play center is a liability on defense, but it certainly wasn't on offense.

Point 1 is certainly true in the long term - but the short term is an entirely different matter. Not only are we without Jack (a flawed but under-rated player), we are also facing uncertainty over Blake's health. If Blake misses (or is physically limited) for any appreciable ammount of time, our back-court could be a mess. Not to mention the added workload it dumps on Roy.

One final note - and I know this will piss people off - but for the (roughly) half a season he was healthy, Jones was better than Webster. Not having that safety net at SF could cost a couple of games right there.

 

I wonder how much we'll miss Jack and Jones. I know lots of people despise Jack on this board, but he was a tough player and showed some leadership on the floor. Jones also showed leadership and played some solid defense and hit that three point shot for us. We were absolutely HORRIBLE when he didn't play. Look at the record. It's not good. Yes, we're adding Rudy, but will he make the same impact that Jones made? Only time will tell.

Go Blazers