For now I think these are the guys I like at 14: Wade Baldwin - Looking like he might go higher. He has the tools to be a good 3&D PG with potential to be a disruptor on defense. If he can learn to shoot off the dribble he could be really good. Supposedly has a personality like Jimmy, for better or worse. Deyonta Davis - Nice potential as a 3&D big......has excellent measurables, a good outside shot and feel for the game. Demetrius Jackson would be a solid pick. He's probably more of a GarPax pick than Baldwin, who has a higher ceiling/lower floor. Honestly, this is a draft where you're just as likely to get a good prospect at 14 as you are at #5, so we shouldn't be too disappointed with this.
Unless we trade up I would be satisfied with either Baldwin or Jackson. Jackson is 6-1, but plays bigger than that. He can elevate!
The one hesitation I have about Jackson is that he's probably more of a Thibs PG than a Hoiberg PG but he projects to be a solid player IMO. If Baldwin can learn to shoot off the dribble he could be really good, but not all PG's learn to do that. Otherwise he's a pretty safe bet to be a passable 3&D guard with a plausible path to stardom, although the chances of him getting there are pretty small. 1 guy I'm not sure I like as much as others is Luwawu. I don't quite see the Paul George comparisons, which are the ones getting thrown around a lot. He strikes me as an unspectacular end of bench wing player.
He is a decent athlete, but I don't see much of his offensive game being able to translate in the NBA, and he doesn't play nearly as strong as Paul George IMO. He strikes me as a slightly more ball savvy Wes Johnson, but not someone having the offensive capabilities of Paul George.
Also, after watching more of Jackson, hmmm........ He strikes me as someone who has a good career ahead of him as a decent backup pg/fringe starter, but maybe not a path to being a good starter. Maybe a bit like DJ Augustin, but a more explosive athlete and with less PG instincts. He looks like he might need a pick to get all the way to the hole and someone who is bothered by length and might have a hard time exercising his PG vision if he's pressured. He's athletic but doesn't have the top speed of guys like Westbrook or Rose, and a good first step but someone who might need 2 or 3 to reach peak explosion. His usage went up this year and his 3Pt shooting went down considerably, suggesting possible limitations to be an efficient shooter with the ball in his hands in the NBA. Right now I have him slotted as a guy I'd be fine with at our pick as he'll likely have a role on the team going forward, but not someone I'd be ecstatic about.
Jackson's my guy in this draft. Draftexpress.com currently has him going #19. I predict that this will change...I'm hoping that it doesn't change to the point where he goes before the Bulls pick. Jackson is shorter than Rose, but has much more of an above-the-rim game than Rose has now. He can create his own shot as well as handle the catch-and-shoot. He has the strength, length and athleticism to be as effective as a PG can be in today's NBA. If the Bulls get him, color me thrilled.
1). It seems like the #1 and #2 pick are pretty much settled, but outside of that there's really not much of a consensus about who ought to go where so I don't think the mock drafts mean very much right now. 2). I'd be interested to learn more about Jackson's off-the-ball game. If he could credibly play this way it'd make me warm up to taking him since it'd allow us to play him with Jimmy more easily.
A few random thoughts about the draft: 1). Malik Beasley seems like an interesting prospect......good shooter with excellent mechanics, young, and a very active defender. Supposedly he has great intangibles as well. His measurables aren't as great as a guy like Luwawu's, but his stroke is much more pure despite similar %'s. He's not particularly flexible with his dribble, but a basic handle is there, giving him some ability to attack closeouts and take advantage of poor defenders. 2). Speaking of Luwawu, I'm still not sure how to feel about him. I can't tell if I should think about him as a modest 3&D wing prospect that has a floor of a guy like Justin Holiday or if he has the potential to be something more. I'm inclined to think he's Holiday, but here's the thing: the most undervalued guys in the draft have almost always been foreigners. Consider the last 3 years: Jokic, Antetokounmpo, Gobert, Clint Capela, Dennis Schroeder........all foreigners that were remarkable players who, in hindsight should've been taken much higher than they were. So perhaps I'm not giving him enough credit. 3). Thinking of the second round, one guy I'm warming up to is Kahlil Felder. I think the 2nd round is a good place to search for great players that get unfairly penalized for their size. He's a physical specimen and statistical dynamo (30.3 PER) who did everything for his team on offense. And he's also 5'9. Unlike the other PG's we've talked about here he's an outstanding shooter off the dribble and is a score first PG who excels at getting separation from his defender, shooting off the dribble, etc. He played very well at the combines, which were important for him because people had questions about his defense and his ability to reproduce his statistical output against good competition (he plays at a weak school). But he was excellent on both counts. He outplayed Melo Trimble, got to the line 15 times in 2 games, and was defensively active. He's perceived to have a low ceiling due to his height, but I think he could be an impact player in his own right and would be good value as an 11th/12th guy who can provide microwave scoring.
So, 1 guy I can't make up my mind about right now is Buddy Hield. I'm not sure if he's more Doug McDermott or James Harden. He's a great shooter, and most of dribble-drive game seems to consist of McDermott-like 2-3 dribble stuff that allows him to create space off of a pick. But he also has this eurostep game that reminds you a lot of James Harden, I just have no idea whether or not he'll be able to use it at the next level. I don't think he'll be able to do it at the same level Harden does it at, because if you look at Harden's numbers, it's like he practically came out of the womb with his high FTA/TS% herky-jerk game, whereas Hield managed to mold himself into that with lots of hardwork by his senior year. For a quick comparison, Here are the per-40 stats for Hield, Harden, and Doug their sophomore years, which is the year Harden declared for the draft and went #2. James Harden Pts: 22.3, Reb: 6.22, Ast: 4.67, 3PA: 5.4, FTA: 8.7 TS%: 0.607 Doug McDermott Pts: 28.7, Reb: 10.3, Ast: 1.3, 3PA: 4.0, FTA: 6.0 TS%: 0.678% Buddy Hield Pts: 20.5, Reb: 5.5, Ast: 2.3, 3PA: 8.8, FTA: 3.2 TS%: 0.568 These numbers are probably underestimating Harden's output because MPG does not seem to be a statistic that was tracked for college bball players in 08/09, so I assumed he played 36 mpg, which is on the high end of what most players play at. Anyways, if you look at the stats one takeaway is that Hield is a gunner, but doesn't quite have the ability to get into the teeth of a defense the way Harden and McDermott did. This more or less agrees with my eyeball assessment, which is that Hield is decent at getting his shot off with a few dribbles but not so great at going north south, especially if the defense is set. I think Hield's ceiling might be McDermott+ -- ie, elite shooting and versatile scoring, but not quite the physical ability to get the usage he did in college. However, his ability to do some of that herky-jerky stuff might be useful as a 3rd option to offset the way defenses play his jumpshot, and due to his better tools I think it'll give him a better floorgame than McDermott. For example, McDermott's FTA/40 went from 7.0 his senior year to 1.8 his second year (I'm discounting his rookie year). Ie, it totally cratered because his game inside the 3pt line just didn't translate all that well. For Harden the difference was much less dramatic: 8.7 to 5.5, and by year 3 it was up to 7.5, which was top 10 in the league. Ie, Harden's floor game translated extremely well, so his college production was predictive of his pro-production. What will be the case for Hield? I'm predicting something inbetween, but how much inbetween will do a lot to determine whether or not he's a suitable rotation player or a max-contract ish guy. His steal numbers are much better than McDermott's, which were historically low, but I'm still undecided on how much of his game he'll be able to use at the NBA level.
I don't think he's quite McDermott. I think there's a good chance he's able to stay on the floor more since he has better tools. Hard to see him I just can't decide how high his ceiling is.
Okay, time to talk about under-the-radar big guys. I think all of them are neat prospects, although I'm not quite sure how I'd rank them yet compared to the others we talked about. But they all seem like they have a spot in the league. Ante Zizic - He's 19, 6'11, 7'3 wingspan, 250 pounds, comes from a pro-basketball family, and just came off a season that sported the highest PER of anyone under 22 in the Euroleagues at 25.5. He'll also come into the league with two elite skills that typically translate: offensive rebounding and motor. As a prospect he reminds me of some combination of Jusuf Nurkic/Tyson Chandler/Steven Adams. His body isn't filled out and he fouls a lot so there's probably a good chance he won't stay on the floor much his first year or two, but his game translates very well to being a valuable role player with what he already has. With Jo out the door it'd be very useful to have an athletic big guy with a nose for the ball. Right now he'd be perceived as a reach at #14, but his game just maps out very well to the NBA. I'm sure Ivika Dukan has him well scouted, so he might be an underdog pick for us. Guerschon Yubusele - You don't see this guy talked about very much, but he reminds me a lot of Paul Millsap. About the same height and build, and their games mirror each other's pretty well. He's built like a tank, is very good on the pick n' roll, (similar to Felicio), and he has the ability to hit the 3 point shot. He's a bit short at 6'7, but his wingspan is 7'2 and he has an aggressive, attacking style. Chad Ford recently had an article about the draft and said he's been beasting in workouts and is climbing draft boards and is probably a late 1st round pick at this point. He's probably not in play at the #14 spot and probably won't be available at #48, but I like Yubusele more than guys like AJ Hammons, Damontas Sabonis, and Henry Ellenson (who I don't like at all). Here's a video of Yubusele:
So, an interesting thought is to think about the guys who are consistently ranked ahead of where the Bulls pick but, for whatever reason, might end up falling to us. Two guys that fit this description who haven't been mentioned here are Henry Ellenson and Jakob Poeltl. Ellenson's an interesting prospect to take a look at. He was previously listed top 5-10 on most mocks but recently he's been slipping. He does not play D very well, nor does he have a reliable 3 pt shot, but he's a big, agile guy who's great with the ball in his hands. When you watch him you get a Kelly Olynyk/Old Man Dirk/Brad Miller vibe. He's not a great athlete, but he has that old man athleticism that allows him to shift around and change speeds in a way that enables him to get to spots on the floor. He's also a great rebounder......he reminds you of Kevin Love with the way he pursues the ball and gets his ass into someone. He has great instincts in that part of the game. My hunch is that his offensive game will translate reasonably well...........he should at least be an Olynuk/Sullinger level offensive player, and his style of play is very well suited for Hoiball on offense. But on defense he's basically going to be a trainwreck. There's probably no way you can play him with Mirotic (who are fairly similar players IMO, with Mirotic having a moderate edge in talent), he can't defend the PnR, and he's almost guaranteed to be a subpar rim protector. But at 14 he might genuinely be BPA. I won't blame the Bulls for taking him, but I hope the Bulls are savvy enough to draft him for a team who's picking later and use him to secure another prospect they do like with a few goodies added in. Poeltl seems like the definition of a solid but unspectacular pick. He's got a good floor since he's big, agile, has nice hands, and defends the post and PnR very well. He's bound to be a very solid big man for whoever drafts him, but his upside is fairly modest. Like, it's hard for me to explain to myself why he's going to be so much better than Zubac, Zizic or Damian Jones, all of whom also project as decent role playing big men. The biggest difference to me is that Poeltl has an easier road to his floor than those guys.
nbadraft.net has him going in the second round. I really think this draft is going to be hard to call.....after about pick 10 there isn't a whole lot of difference between #11 and #45. Like, for any guy rumoured to go in the late lottery you could find a similar player projected to go in the second round and make a case for why he's the better pro prospect. I actually think this draft is going to be pretty good, just not that top heavy. It sort of reminds me of 2012 - not a strong draft overall, but most remarkable for the idiosyncratic nature of its talent distribution. For example, here were picks 11-20 compared to 31-40 that year: 11. Meyers Leonard 12. Jeremy Lamb 13. Kendall Marshall 14. John Henson 15. Moe Harkless 16. Royce White 17. Tyler Zeller 18. Terrence Jones 19. Andrew Nicholson 20. Evan Fournier And then: 31. Jeffrey Taylor 32. Tomas Satoronsky 33. Bernard James 34. Jae Crowder 35. Dreymond Green 36. Orlando Johnson 37. Quincy Acy 38. Quincy Miller 39. Khris Middleton 40. Will Barton Won't be surprised if this draft looks similar 5 years from now.
