Coming Luxury Tax implications

Discussion in 'Portland Trail Blazers' started by TBpup, Feb 9, 2019.

  1. TBpup

    TBpup Writing Team

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    @hoopsjock and @Hoopguru got me to thinking about this with what might happen to Jake this Summer.

    How Neil deals with cap space this summer will be very interesting.

    Does he re-sign Aminu? The Lux Tax line will be ~$132,000,000 for next year. The Blazers are currently at $127,625,654 and that is without re-signing Aminu, Hood or Curry.

    They will still have Nicholson, Varejao, and Ezeli on the books. :banghead2:

    Even if they don't re-sign Aminu, Hood or Curry, they will still have to fill at least some of those roster spots. Jake's QO is at $1.9M but he is likely to get higher offers than that which the Blazers will have to match. That will likely eat up all the room to the tax level and more right there.

    [​IMG]

    Expiring contracts:
    Turner - $18.6M
    Harkless - $11.5M
    Leonard - $11.3M

    That is ~$41,400,000 of expiring salary. Would Detroit like to have all of that ending salary for Blake Griffin? (~$34.5M next year) They could take that on and still be under the Lux tax line. But then Portland is committed to being at or over the tax line for years to come.

    [​IMG]

    Unfortunately, as we talked about in the last podcast, there are 62 expiring contracts for the upcoming season. There will be a lot of teams with expiring deals which negates how valuable the expiring deals the Blazers have are just from a supply/demand standpoint.

    This is a chance for Neil to make a big splash with someone like Griffin or the Blazers reset with a lot of money coming off their tax line that still won't leave them much under the Salary Cap.

    Things could get interesting.
     
  2. Scalma

    Scalma Well-Known Member

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    Let’s just assume he wasn’t bullshitting. Olshey mentioned they had a deal on the table that involved “astronomical” money that Jody OKd. He also mentioned the player didn’t end up getting traded anywhere else.

    Good bet he was talking about Griffin. He’ll probably revisit it this summer, assuming he doesn’t get fired.
     
  3. TBpup

    TBpup Writing Team

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    I believe both Griffin and Davis were discussed at some level. With Davis I see it being a matter of not having enough assets or the Pelicans just wanting to wait to see what Boston's offer will be.

    With Griffin, I expect it would have had more to do with the contracts offered were not expiring and next year they will be.

    Who knows, but 'astronomical dollars that didn't end up getting traded'....well, there are only so many of those that were available.
     
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  4. Scalma

    Scalma Well-Known Member

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    The reason I don’t think it was Anthony Davis is because his contract expires after next season. It felt like Olshey was hinting at taking on a ton of future money, since the question he was answering had to do with Jody Allen. Griffin is the only obvious name to me.

    I think an Evan, Moe, Collins, pick swap for Griffin will be in play this summer.
     
  5. TBpup

    TBpup Writing Team

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    Davis is expiring....but it you are taking him on, you are 'hoping' to commit to astronomical money in the future. Still, agreed it could have very well more likely been Griffin.
     
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  6. rotary111

    rotary111 Well-Known Member

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    I hope they can figure out the ownership piece soon. My guess would be they try and clear the books as much as possible for the new ownership to form a new plan. Although reports have been that Jody is willing to spend if necessary.

    Does the fact that we are somewhat in limbo make a difference to players who may be considering Ptown?
     
  7. TorturedBlazerFan

    TorturedBlazerFan Well-Known Member

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    Almost get the feeling that until the summer of 2020, we just get to sit back and watch because not much is going to change. Maybe next deadline someone will be willing to take on our expiring deals but I'm not even all that hopeful those will get turned into anything useful.
    Least we got a pretty good team to watch, Nurk and Dame are good enough to keep things interesting.
     
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  8. blue9

    blue9 Well-Known Member

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    Better not re-sign Aminu or Curry - waste of money. Hood? We'll see.
     
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  9. hoopsjock

    hoopsjock Well-Known Member

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    If we take Olshey at his word the only players that make sense would be Griffin or Love. You would think Love would be easier to get but Cleveland seems to not know what they are doing with him. The only other player I can think of that would fit the astronomical part is Wiggins, but I doubt that. I guess Wall and Conley could fit under that description but those make no sense.
     
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  10. hoopsjock

    hoopsjock Well-Known Member

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    If you want Griffin I think you have to root for Detroit to not make the playoffs and kind of end the season with a thud. If they go on a run and make the playoffs then I think they'll continue to build around him.

    As far as what a deal this summer for him would look like my guess would be something like Turner, Harkless, Collins, rights to whoever we draft with our 2019 1st (picking for them), and a 2020 1st (we can trade both our 2019 pick and 2020 pick if we wait until the draft takes place). We'd probably have to throw in Simons or Trent as well. We'd basically have to hope for both the Pistons to start viewing his contract negatively instead of positively and that other teams with expiring contracts aren't willing to give up two 1st rounders and a young player for him because of that contract.

    I know this is going to sound crazy and I'm certainly not wishing for Griffin to get hurt but another injury would significantly lower his value and probably keep other interested teams away. The Blazers would still potentially take the risk because he'd be one of the few "stars" we could get without having to trade our back court or Nurk.
     
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  11. PtldPlatypus

    PtldPlatypus Is this team for real? Staff Member Moderator

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    I don't want him to get hurt, but I want him to become increasingly frustrated with his teammates and with losing.

    I would gladly part with Turner, Harkless, Collins, Simons, 2019 draftee, and 2020 #1 for Blake. Going into next year with Dame, CJ, Jake, Blake and Nurk would be incredibly exciting.
     
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  12. wizenheimer

    wizenheimer Well-Known Member

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    the problem with believing all that is accurate, even though it could be, is that Jody Allen may have approved a trade that was something like Turner + Meyers + Harkless + (maybe)1st for Blake Griffin

    that would have dropped this year's tax down to nearly nothing, and shaved more than 7M off of next year's salary base. Of course Jody Allen would 'approve' something like that. And just about certainly, Detroit would have rejected that deal since it was such a lowball offer. I mean, I could make an "astronomical" offer of 12M for a 36 million ranch/resort; that would allow me to say I tried, but the reality would be it was never a serious offer

    I'm not saying that was the offer...maybe Olshey was including multiple 1sts & Zach (haha!)...or maybe it was for Love. I'm imagining both Detroit and Cleveland are having a little bit of buyer's remorse for those contracts, but I seriously doubt they are ready to dump them for negative value just yet
     
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  13. Chris Craig

    Chris Craig Blazersland Staff Member Moderator

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    There are 62 expirings next year, but do any other teams have three expirings that add up to $41 million that can be sent out to equal the salary for an incoming player like Griffin?
     
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  14. wizenheimer

    wizenheimer Well-Known Member

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    3 for 1 trades are hard because most teams have full rosters or only one opening. Besides that, Turner + Meyers/Harkless for Blake is a legal 2 for 1 deal and would give Detroit the benefit of reducing salary. Pistons would never go for that though, IMO. Blazers will have to include some positive assets, even if they are minor, some combination of Zach, Simons, Trent, & picks
     
  15. blue9

    blue9 Well-Known Member

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    I think that's a HUGE overpay. Griffin's contract reduces the package that DET will get for him. Turner will no longer be a negative asset (neutral, but not negative). The fact that NYK got two picks and no players for Porzingis (a younger, cheaper, better? player) means DET will likely get one pick and one asset (Collins/Simons?) in addition to filler.
     
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  16. hoopsjock

    hoopsjock Well-Known Member

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    The Knicks did get Dennis Smith Jr too. In two games with the Knicks he's scored 25 and 31 points, with 6 assists and 8 assists. I don't think you can call that no players.

    Griffin is averaging 25 points, 8 rebounds, and 5 assists per game with good efficiency numbers and playmaking ability. You aren't going to get him for too cheap.
     
  17. Wizard Mentor

    Wizard Mentor Wizard Mentor

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    Who starts for the Blazers in the playoffs? That shapes the coming Luxury Tax. I wonder
    if Aminu will be relegated to the bench, and then let go for tax reasons.
     
  18. hoopsjock

    hoopsjock Well-Known Member

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    Just to be clear (for everyone not specifically you), there is no way to reduce the tax bill for this season now. We can only add to it if we fill the 15th roster spot.

    The tax bill for next season can be changed up until the trade deadline of 2020. Look at the Rockets this year as to how to get under the tax line at the last minute. It's difficult but it can be done.

    With how much expiring contracts came into play for trades this year I wonder if Olshey will think it will be like that next year too and sign Aminu to a one year deal. That way after December 15th we could use him as an expiring contract too.
     
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  19. TBpup

    TBpup Writing Team

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    Alphabetical Teams...............Teams w/the most Expiring $$
    ATL - $34.2M (3 players)...............TOR - $105.5 (5 players)
    BRK - $28.0M (4 players)..............CLE - $79.7M (6 players)
    BOS _ $52.4M (3 players)..............NYK - $79.6M (1 players)
    CHA - $51.0M (5 players)...............GSW - $70.1M (4 players)
    CLE - $79.7M (6 players)................MIA - $63.2M (4 players)
    DAL - $21.3M (2 players)................MEM- $60.3M (4 players)
    DEN - $46.5M (3 players)...............BOS - $52.4M (3 players)
    DET - $38.5M (3 players)................CHA - $51.0M (5 players)
    GSW - $70.1M (4 players)...............DEN - $46.5M (3 players)
    LAC - $27.6M (2 players)................DET - $38.5M (3 players)
    MEM - $60.3M (4 players)..............POR - $38.2M (3 players)
    MIA - $63.2M (4 players)................WAS - $36.0M (2 players)
    NOP - $30.9M (4 players)...............UTA - $35.3M (4 players)
    NYK - $79.6M (1 players)................MIL - $34.6M (3 players)
    OKC - $17.3M (3 players).................SAS - $32.2 (4 players)
    ORL - $23.2M (2 players)................BRK - $28.0M (4 players)
    PHI - $25.0M (2 players).................LAC - $27.6M (2 players)
    PHX - $12.5M (1 player)...................SAC - $26.7 (2 players)
    POR - $38.2M (3 players)................PHI - $25.0M (2 players)
    SAC - $26.7 (2 players).....................ORL - $23.2M (2 players)
    SAS - $32.2 (4 players).....................DAL - $21.3M (2 players)
    TOR - $105.5 (5 players)..................OKC - $17.3M (3 players)
    UTA - $35.3M (4 players).................PHX - $12.5M (1 player)
    WAS - $36.0M (2 players)................NYK - $6.9M (1 players)

    Okay @Chris Craig you owe me big time. :cheers: This took a while to put together because there were a couple of errors in the sites I used to get the information and even now, I'm not positive every team is correct....but you get the idea.

    This is EXACTLY what we were talking about on the last podcast. There are so many teams with expiring deals and in the rankings, Portland is 11th in terms of amount of expiring dollar amount. Expiring contracts will be worth so much less because there are so many teams with them and many with more contract value or number of players to choose from to make a deal.

    I was bothered by what Neil did but didn't realize it was this bad. The Blazers have been hamstrung by these contract from the beginning and now that they are finally coming to an end, unless there is some serious magic, are worth very little as ending contracts.
     
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  20. Pinwheel1

    Pinwheel1 Well-Known Member

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    Wouldn't who finishes the game be a bigger indicator then who starts?
    I can see Jake and or Hood NOT starting but still finishing games.....and be more important to re-sign this summer.
     
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