OT Coronavirus: America in chaos, News and Updates. One million Americans dead and counting

Discussion in 'Blazers OT Forum' started by SlyPokerDog, Jan 3, 2020.

  1. Orion Bailey

    Orion Bailey Forum Troll

    Joined:
    Jan 27, 2015
    Messages:
    26,285
    Likes Received:
    21,506
    Trophy Points:
    113
    Ive asked for it to go to DM, to try to avoid another day of BS, and I noted why I didn't start in the DM.

    I woke up early cause I have carpet being laid at 8AM so I needed to get some stuff done super early this morning and I got done quickly. :)


    I 100% agree. Ive said my peace and asked it to continue in DM if it does and will break off of the thread conversing on this.

    Back on topic.

    https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/cases-updates/cases-in-us.html
     
  2. CupWizier

    CupWizier Well-Known Member

    Joined:
    Sep 21, 2009
    Messages:
    11,265
    Likes Received:
    7,664
    Trophy Points:
    113
    Occupation:
    retired
    I would love to. I would also like to come into this forum and not see a poster essentially do a full page rant AGAIN complaining about posters. Moving on now. :cheers:
     
  3. Orion Bailey

    Orion Bailey Forum Troll

    Joined:
    Jan 27, 2015
    Messages:
    26,285
    Likes Received:
    21,506
    Trophy Points:
    113
  4. Shaboid

    Shaboid Well-Known Member

    Joined:
    Apr 30, 2014
    Messages:
    9,411
    Likes Received:
    12,183
    Trophy Points:
    113
    Reported Covid-19 cases around the world reached 5 million on Thursday as some countries begin easing strict social distancing guidelines and look to reopen their economies, according to data from Johns Hopkins University.

    The number of reported cases worldwide hit 5,000,038 and the global death toll now stands at 328,172, according to Hopkins.
     
  5. Orion Bailey

    Orion Bailey Forum Troll

    Joined:
    Jan 27, 2015
    Messages:
    26,285
    Likes Received:
    21,506
    Trophy Points:
    113
    15%. Thats huge.

    What do you think the numbers of unreported cases might be at? Double?
     
  6. Shaboid

    Shaboid Well-Known Member

    Joined:
    Apr 30, 2014
    Messages:
    9,411
    Likes Received:
    12,183
    Trophy Points:
    113
    Not sure where you are getting the 15% figure from..

    As far as unreported cases, you would have to ask Dr. Johnny Hopkins for that. I have no idea.
     
  7. Orion Bailey

    Orion Bailey Forum Troll

    Joined:
    Jan 27, 2015
    Messages:
    26,285
    Likes Received:
    21,506
    Trophy Points:
    113

    328,172 of 5,000,038 is roughly 15%.

    I was just asking your thoughts on it. I find wild variations when trying to find anything on unreported cases, of course its all hypothetical. Just curious of your thoughts on how many more may actually be infected.
     
  8. Shaboid

    Shaboid Well-Known Member

    Joined:
    Apr 30, 2014
    Messages:
    9,411
    Likes Received:
    12,183
    Trophy Points:
    113
    That is why I wasn't even going to give an estimate. How the heck would I know.

    You may want to flip your numerator and denominator though...
     
    Orion Bailey likes this.
  9. Orion Bailey

    Orion Bailey Forum Troll

    Joined:
    Jan 27, 2015
    Messages:
    26,285
    Likes Received:
    21,506
    Trophy Points:
    113
    LOL. oops. failed to hit the percent on my Ti 30Xa.

    Im not asking if you know, just what your thought is. I think its probably at least quadruple.
     
  10. julius

    julius Global Moderator Staff Member Global Moderator

    Joined:
    Sep 16, 2008
    Messages:
    42,402
    Likes Received:
    29,999
    Trophy Points:
    113
    Occupation:
    singer songwriter
    Location:
    Washington
    So, if we tag someone multiple times in a thread, do they get notified multiple times?
     
  11. andalusian

    andalusian Season - Restarted

    Joined:
    Sep 24, 2008
    Messages:
    14,414
    Likes Received:
    13,349
    Trophy Points:
    113
    Location:
    San Marcos, CA
    What would have happened if we had effective, quick acting leadership?

    https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.05.15.20103655v1.full.pdf

    The counterfactual simulations indicate that had observed control measures been adopted one week earlier, the US would have avoided 703,975 (95% CI: 624,923- 773,388) [61.6% (54.6%-67.7%)] confirmed cases and 35,927 (30,088-40,638) [55.0% (46.1%-62.2%)] deaths nationwide as of May 3, 2020 (Fig. 2a-b). In the New York metropolitan area, the epicenter of COVID-19 in the US, 209,987 (183,607-223,199) [80.0% (70.0%-85.0%)] confirmed cases and 17,514 (15,293-18,878) [80.3% (70.2%- 86.6%)] deaths would have been avoided if the same sequence of interventions had been applied one week earlier (Fig. 2c-d). A more pronounced control effect would have been achieved had the sequence of control measures occurred two weeks earlier: a reduction of 960,937 (900,114-1,011,498) [84.0% (78.7%-88.4%)] cases and 53,990 (49,688-57,186) [82.7% (76.1%-87.6%)] deaths in the US (Fig. 2e-f), and 246,082 (234,645-252,281) [93.8% (89.4%-96.2%)] cases and 20,427 (19,380-21,093) [93.7% (88.9%-96.7%)] deaths in the New York metropolitan area (Fig. 2g-h). These dramatic reductions of morbidity and mortality due to more timely deployment of control measures highlights the critical need for aggressive, early response to the COVID-19 pandemic.
     
    yankeesince59 and riverman like this.
  12. Shaboid

    Shaboid Well-Known Member

    Joined:
    Apr 30, 2014
    Messages:
    9,411
    Likes Received:
    12,183
    Trophy Points:
    113
    It could be x2 it could be x50. I wouldn't know how to even estimate that. Hell, I've been staying home as much as possible and I could have had it and not known.
     
    Orion Bailey likes this.
  13. calvin natt

    calvin natt Confeve

    Joined:
    Jun 30, 2017
    Messages:
    7,520
    Likes Received:
    10,457
    Trophy Points:
    113
    Location:
    Portland Suburb
    This is what I’m fearful of, people see either good news on the death rate or really bad news on jobs, which does suck don’t get me wrong, but then think “maybe we were overly cautious” when the only reason we have the numbers we have is because we went full lock down mode. The problem is companies firing people, govt needs to make sure they are doing what they can to curb these losses. Money.
     
    RipCityDSCPL likes this.
  14. Orion Bailey

    Orion Bailey Forum Troll

    Joined:
    Jan 27, 2015
    Messages:
    26,285
    Likes Received:
    21,506
    Trophy Points:
    113
    I'm leaning that way. I think its spread to the vast majority of people already. Quadruple is my conservative side really.
     
  15. Orion Bailey

    Orion Bailey Forum Troll

    Joined:
    Jan 27, 2015
    Messages:
    26,285
    Likes Received:
    21,506
    Trophy Points:
    113
    Agreed. I think if it werent for watching alot of the aid go to corps and then still watching all the layoffs, its got me concerned on how all this will play out. Im of the opinion the lockdown didn't do as much and that the virus already sent a wave around prior to lockdown.

    I think the lockdown(out of my ass) probably saved maybe 5% more deaths than we have had. I think the lockdown and impending poverty, could create more deaths than that 5%.
     
  16. Hoopguru

    Hoopguru Well-Known Member

    Joined:
    Sep 16, 2014
    Messages:
    19,589
    Likes Received:
    16,197
    Trophy Points:
    113
    Ive read where many doctors, scientist, think a good perectage of people have already had it or are A systematic. Which would include kids and all ages. Those over 65 and seniors in nursing home are the most vulnerable and factually affected. Our priorities need to be addressing nursing homes, seniors with underlying conditions and getting kids back in school eventually. There is an argument amongst doctors that the resources and plans have not been foccused enough in these area's. Come on, I mean New York sending infected seniors back to nursing homes?
     
    Orion Bailey likes this.
  17. Orion Bailey

    Orion Bailey Forum Troll

    Joined:
    Jan 27, 2015
    Messages:
    26,285
    Likes Received:
    21,506
    Trophy Points:
    113
    Exactly. We are using resources testing in other areas for example and my mother, in a facility with 6 deaths, has yet to be tested.

    Not trying to pinpoint blame at the moment, but its pretty obvious a redirection of focus should have and probably still, needs to happen.
     
  18. Shaboid

    Shaboid Well-Known Member

    Joined:
    Apr 30, 2014
    Messages:
    9,411
    Likes Received:
    12,183
    Trophy Points:
    113
    Who knows. There is so much speculation and uncertainty in this air lately that I wouldn't even be able to make an estimate.
     
  19. Chris Craig

    Chris Craig (Blazersland) I'm Your Huckleberry Staff Member Global Moderator Moderator

    Joined:
    Jun 25, 2015
    Messages:
    53,586
    Likes Received:
    54,649
    Trophy Points:
    113
    Enough
     
  20. lawai'a

    lawai'a Well-Known Member

    Joined:
    Oct 21, 2013
    Messages:
    2,677
    Likes Received:
    2,694
    Trophy Points:
    113
    https://news.usc.edu/170565/covid-19-antibody-study-coronavirus-infections-los-angeles-county/
    Coronavirus infections more widespread than expected in L.A. County
    A newly published, USC-led study has confirmed that, though many more L.A. County residents had COVID-19 antibodies than previously thought, most people have not been infected.
    The researchers estimate that approximately 4.65% of the county’s adult population has contracted the new coronavirus.As with all statistical estimates, there is a range of uncertainty or margin of error. The analysis suggests that the fraction of adults in Los Angeles who contracted the novel coronavirus could range from as low as 2.5% to just over 7%. The results verify preliminary results that had been released last month.Sood pointed out two important caveats: One, the results may have been skewed by an overrepresentation of people who experienced COVID-like symptoms in the past, potentially driving the number of positive tests up. Second, Sood emphasized that there’s not one infection rate for the state or for the entire country. Infection rates vary by geography, income, race, ethnicity and neighborhood.
     
    Orion Bailey and Hoopguru like this.

Share This Page