We did pay less since the trade, got a first round pick, and Nurkic has had the highest WS total for a season. However, since the trade Plumlee has more Win Shares despite playing backup while in Denver. https://www.basketball-reference.com/players/p/plumlma01.html https://www.basketball-reference.com/players/n/nurkiju01.html
the trade balance is a lot closer than it used to be since Nurkic sure appears to be injury prone also, Nurkic hasn't seemed to improve a lot during off-seasons. His impact in that "Nurkic Fever" 20 game stretch right after the trade has been as big as any stretch since. You'd expect more progression from a young big. Portland's playoff record when Nurkic has been healthy is only 1-8. But it's unlikely Plumlee would have improved that any considering the opponents and how the Blazers lost those games still, if the scale is balanced between knowns-at-the-time and hindsight I'd give Portland the edge a couple of other factors, both laid at the feet of Olshey: 1) Blazers needed to punt Plumlee's RFA status a year down the road because of Olshey's 2016 madness; the trade accomplished that. 2) the trade brought in a first round pick that became about 40% of the trade that allowed Olshey to draft Zach Collins. If that would have resulted in Portland drafting Donovan Mitchell or Bam Adebayo, or just drafting a Jarret Allen or OG Anunoby it would have been a slam dunk win. But we can't have nice things around here...apparently
Yeah, we absolutely won this trade if you look at this deal in a vacuum. Nurkic, while more injury prone than Plumlee, still is the superior player. We also missed the boat on paying Plumlee $14M a year for 3-4 seasons. On the other hand, we were able to sign Nurk to a very team-friendly deal in 2018 which runs through 2022. What puts it over the top for me is the first round pick acquired, which ended up being No. 15 in 2017. Again, looking at this trade in a vacuum, and not what Portland did or did not do with the pick, that No. 15 pick was incredibly valuable. The trade allowed Portland to potentially select players such as John Collins, OG Anuoby, Jarrett Allen, and Derrick White. No matter where you fall on the Nurk fandom spectrum, that pick alone was more valuable than Plumlee.
You're right. All of those players listed except John Collins would have been available with the 20th pick.
maybe the simplest way to look at it is that Portland traded Plumlee and the 15th pick for Nurkic, Zach, and fragile bones
I think we won it hands down if we don't take health into consideration and even if we do, I still think we won. That being said, it could become a huge loss this off season. If the team retains Olshey I think he will extend Nurk and grossly overpay for a big that is almost obsolete in today's NBA. I love Nurk and if he were seen as a platooning center with an athletic counterpart then I'd be cool with keeping him at the salary he is currently making. If we don't get another big that also starts depending on the match up and if we give Nurk a raise then we will be fucking ourselves again, just like we did with CJ... another talented player, that is overpaid, sees too much playing time and just doesn't fit. The only difference is if we give Nurk north of 20M per season, he will not have a place to trade him to where his salary makes sense and CJ does.
We wouldn't have re-signed Plumlee at his market rate. That was the main driving force behind trading him in the first place.
I've said, you're nice. I know that! You were being totally accurate about Nurk and there really is nowhere to take it but to a negative place. The guy has been injured and when he's healthy he has his limitations being so big. I was kidding about the negative again part because that stuff is funny. If I didn't think you were well intended I wouldn't say anything.
For sure man I was just joking. Yes he’s great when he can stay healthy although he’s very inconsistent a little overrated but it’s better to have him than not! I’ll say that
nurk missed two playoffs with leg breaks and in the other two, he faced anthony davis who is not only a nightmare matchup for nurk, cause hes more athletic, can play on the perimeter and is elite defender, but hes also quite possibly top 5 player in the league... but when the blazers faced okc, denver and gsw, nurk wasnt playing and he plays his best bball against those very teams, so its pretty easy to say that nurk would dominate that playoffs so its just a very, very bad luck for nurk with his health and matchups (like dame always struggles against jrue holiday... davis, rondo & holiday, pretty much dominated nurk, cj & dame which resulted in blazers being swept)