You'd think we were starting over from scratch this year. Aldridge's inside game has disappeared. The ball movement is terrible. The defense is lackadaisical. The offense is predictable. We're getting out hustled every night. I have to say I really hate our offensive scheme, if that's what you can call it. Here's the plan: throw it into Aldridge on the left side of the key and let him back his man down. Period. That seems to be the plan on about 90% of the plays. It's boring and it's not working. Meanwhile, everybody on the other team is crashing the boards and actually playing with some passion. It's really ugly right now.
We've completely lost our swagger. The emotion is gone. Had Stotts not inserted Thrill and Robinson, this one could have been a blowout. Don't look at their stats, because it's nothing special, but those two find a way every game to turn the tide in our favor. Overall, I feel like the team thinks because they won a playoff series last year that this time around it's going to be easier, for whatever reason. Hopefully these past two losses were wake-up calls, because, outside of the 4th quarter against OKC, we've played very mediocre basketball. The West is no joke. We can't be giving away too many games. Thankfully this is only Game 3, but we need to "flip the switch" and flip it quick because our November schedule is insanely difficult.
I got to see the last half of the game, it wasn't pretty. At one point I saw that Dame was 1 for 10? WTF is going on? The stream quality was a little bad so I didn't get to see it on the big TV. Just my laptop, which was grainy. I also saw that last 15 second meltdown. Ugh. We always have problems in-bounding the ball!
What I have seen in each game so far is a team that lacks a lot of offensive flow, for whatever reason
LaMarcus and Batum take the worst shots I've ever seen. I don't see other teams coming in here taking contested fading mid-range jumpers. They attack the rim or work for an open in rhythm jumper. Damian has been shit. Teams are simply not letting him get many open looks, and the dude does still not know how to drive and finish. Portland should trade Batum, get out of his ridiculous contract so that next year we can re-tool. This team simply has too many pussies. T-Rob, Lopez, Will, and Wes are the only exceptions.
And you can't coast your way into the playoffs. Will the blazers foolishly give LaMarsha a huge contract even if we miss the playoffs?
This team doesn't really have an identity unless one counts long, outside jumpers and that is not a recipe for long-term success. They also lack toughness which can come from the top. Stotts is an offensive coach but certainly not one I would categorize as 'tough'. But there are some specific issues that could at least be tweaked: Wake up Nic! 1 FG total in 3 first halves so far. The only thing he is stealing right now is a paycheck. Adjustments - Teams are trapping Lillard on almost every PnR. That means someone is open if they know it is coming and react quickly with crisp ball movement. I haven't seen that happen once yet. No shot creator. Once Dame is trapped, there is no one else on the floor that can create. Nic could...if he wasn't taking a nap. Attitude - There seems to be none. Whether it is a sense of entitlement or something else, this version doesn't have near the fire of last years team. Subbing Barton/Trob for CJ/Freeland helped a little but it is really the mentality of the team. Mostly soft and perimeter oriented. Bench - Yes Blake is a nice facilitator but outside of Kaman, they have no one to attack the basket. 75% of Blakes makes are '3's so there is not pressure put on the defense because he doesn't finish at the rim. Just not his game. That mentality also existed with the starters. Just not a lot of pressure on the opposing defense. It is still very early but it's not a reach to surmise that if OKC had Durant, Jackson and Morrow in uniform, this team would be staring at 0-3 with the Cavs coming into town. Maybe Vegas knew what they were talking about at 48 wins.
Also, I think a big problem with this team, is that it's too easy to get LaMarcus a long range jumper. So they too often resort to that instead of working for a better shot.
Aldridge wants to shoot even further out this year. He said he worked on shooting 3s in the summer to extend his range from inefficient long 2s. Teammates are trying to set him up even farther out than last year, but then he chickens out and shoots from inside the line. Since he takes more than half of all our 2-point shots, expect our average shot to be from even farther out than last year. Teammates will follow the lead of the leader and shoot farther out themseves.
I dunno, last year I learned that Stotts is NOT the offensive genius that people try to make him out to be. He's the flip side of the Nate McMillan coin - his offensive prowess is about on par with Nate's understanding of defense. I think people will start coming around to the POV much quicker than it took people to realize that Nate didn't know what he was doing.
Lillard isn't Lillard. Funny, all of the tweets he made about LBJ seem to apply to him this year. That being said, the problem this year is the opposite of our problem this year. This year our bench is pretty good, our starters are sucking.
OMG - I don't know why this didn't occur to me much earlier (like, last season!), but it just dawned on me that ALL of our starters are below-average ball-handlers. I knew, individually, that Nic, Wes, and LMA were all below-average for their position and that Lillard was nothing special. But I never really thought about ball-handling as it pertains to the starting unit. But now it makes sense - that's why our offense is feast or famine. If we can hit long jumpers we'll score, but if we can't we don't. Nic can pass well, but can't dribble well. Lillard is an okay dribbler (perhaps average for PGs, probably below average), but isn't a great passer. Wes can post decently, and cut, but can't dribble-drive. LMA is terrible at dribbling, but is getting a little better at passing. Lopez's ability is negligible. Arguably the only player in the rotation who is an above average ball-handler for their position is Kaman.
What I wrote isn't negative, it just "is". We're a team of below-average ball-handlers. This probably explains a good portion of why we're a jump-shooting team. I'm not simmering, or steamed, or worried. The only time I let basketball affect my emotions is when we win in the Playoffs.
It's early. If it looks like this after twenty games then feel free to hit the 'Panic' button. Bottom line: Lillard doesn't look good yet, Nic doesn't either, McCollum may or may not be able to replicate Mo's role and the 'hockey assists' that lead to such a pretty offense last year haven't really been on display. On a positive note, Kaman looks like a great pick-up and he might even stay healthy in a 20ish minutes per game role and the team does look a little bit better on defense (caveat for miniscule sample sizes). I have to wonder if there isn't just a little bit of complacency after having such an unexpected level of success last year? They certainly weren't projected to be a team that could get out of the first round and maybe they started letting all of that positive press get in their heads a little bit - I wonder if they are as hungry?
Even though I would hope that Lillard can and should recognize this himself there are no excuses for the coaching staff not to see this.
