Ducks

Discussion in 'Portland Trail Blazers' started by SlyPokerDog, Dec 6, 2021.

  1. TBpup

    TBpup Writing Team

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    Colin....saying something nonsensical? My mind it completely blown!
     
  2. STOMP

    STOMP mere fan

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    Anything but scared... it's Washington and I want to see my Duckies smack the purple out of them. Can't wait!

    Statistically their D has been pretty good this year though. They've especially excelled pressuring the QB & generating sacks where they rank in the top 20 in the nation. Conversely Oregon ranks #1 in the nation in not giving up sack & Nix has been amazing.

    I'm sure those on the committee have some contrasting motivations but it's reasonable to speculate they'd have an underlying hope to have the most intriguing matchups that garner the most viewers/revenue. Pretty clear though that if Oregon handles their business in the remaining games (far from a given) they'll be in.

    STOMP
     
    Last edited: Nov 10, 2022
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  3. bigbailes

    bigbailes Well-Known Member

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    Yes it's extremely likely they take an 11-1 Tennessee team that went to Athens and played a much more competitive game over a 12-1 oregon team that got demolished in the season opener. Add to it the Alabama win (assuming they stay at 2 losses) will be seen as a far superior win to anything coming from out west. I know duck fans will think that's nitpicking but that's exactly what the committee has to when teams have 1 loss, it's about finding the tiny margins and they've shown over and over again how much they don't respect the P12.
     
  4. STOMP

    STOMP mere fan

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    I think it's extremely likely you're a Beavers fan hoping.

    Tennessee was also dismantled by Georgia, sorry but that game wasn't nearly as close as the lopsided score. If Oregon wins out, they'll have to do so over multiple top 20 teams down the stretch while no such games loom for the Vols. Most importantly, the committee has consistently shown a preference for conference champions which Oregon would be and Tennessee would not. Thats the reasoning of noted Duck hater Wilner and many others in the media when explaining how they see things unfolding if both schools win out.

    STOMP
     
  5. Hoopguru

    Hoopguru Well-Known Member

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    agree, and if Oregon wins out with the conference championship and the fact they beat UCLA, USC, Utah, OSU, BYU, & WA they'd be hard for the committee to pass on. And I think there is a difference in losing to Dawgs very first game with new coaches and players versus Tennessee losing later on towards end of season.
     
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  6. wizenheimer

    wizenheimer Well-Known Member

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    it's not "extremely likely", that's bullshit

    yeah, it could happen. But Tennessee would have signature wins over LSU & Alabama, while the Ducks would have wins over UCLA, Washington, Utah, OSU, and USC (for example). And the biggest argument against Oregon, the one advanced in this thread, is that the committee wouldn't want a rematch of Oregon against Georgia in the semi-finals. Well the same would be true of Tennessee against Georgia. I suppose the committee could avoid that be elevating OSU or Michigan to #1, but they could do that for either Tennessee or Oregon

    I'd think there would be a decent possibility, in the remote chance Oregon was the 12-1 Pac-12 champion, that an 11-1 Michigan (or OSU) & 11-1 Tennessee would cancel each other out and the committee would take the easy route of taking the conference champion
     
  7. bigbailes

    bigbailes Well-Known Member

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    Nope not a Beaver fan ... the committee has been consistently inconsistent about what they are looking for when it comes to one loss teams, sometimes it's a strong non-con schedule, sometimes it's a conference champ, but the one thing they always seem to favor is the SEC getting the benefit of the doubt. You might not like it, and judging by your "Wilner is a duck hater" logic, you probably don't see things very objectively, which is fine, as a fan you shouldn't.
     
  8. bigbailes

    bigbailes Well-Known Member

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    All very possible, problem is that Bama/LSU wins will be looked on much more favorably over Utah/UCLA/Washington/OSU/USC because the Pac will continue to beat itself up. Very good chance that only three of those teams are ranked at the end of the season. And yes I agree that the Georgia/Ten game was worse than the final score indicated, my guess is that won't matter nearly as much as you think it will, while Tenn will get the benefit of the doubt in playing a true road game in Athens, where as the ducks ass whooping was on a 'neutral' site (yes I realize what a joke that is).
     
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  9. wizenheimer

    wizenheimer Well-Known Member

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    that's all reasonable

    I think the CFP committee is nervous right now because they know what a mess it would be to have:

    Georgia 13-0
    Ohio State 13-10

    Oregon 12-1
    TCU 12-1
    Clemson 12-1
    Tennessee 11-1
    Michigan 11-1

    and just suppose LSU beats Georgia in the SEC title game....LOL
     
  10. bigbailes

    bigbailes Well-Known Member

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    Without a doubt a chance for some chaos ... but it feels like we get to this point every season and then it plays itself out to where we more or less get the teams that deserve to be in. I really think Georgia (even with a loss in the SEC title game) and OSU/Mich winner (baring a random weird loss) are in just based off their track records. I'm not saying oregon has no shot, they obviously do but my guess is things have to shake out for them to get there, even with winning out. Good news for duck fans is a lot is going to shake out in next few weeks.
     
  11. STOMP

    STOMP mere fan

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    I live in the Bay Area and hear Wilner regularly on local sports talk (he writes for a local paper the San Jose Mercury News). Believe it or not he cracks on the Ducks pretty much every time he speaks about them. You'd have to be obtuse to not recognize he has a clear bias as he doesn't hide it. I was actually taken aback that he of all people stated he thought they had the inside track. Other media types saying the same thing are recognizing whats pretty obvious. I heard it said the other day on local sports talk that only 1 conference champion with 1 loss from the Big 5 conferences hasn't made the playoffs, which jibes with my memory. Not sure where you're coming up with the sometimes stuff though I suspect it's from the same place you pulled the extremely likely comment.

    I honestly am not invested in the Ducks making the playoffs. I primarily want them to crush Washington & win the Pac 12. Thats always been the main two goals since I was there over 30 years ago.

    STOMP
     
  12. bigbailes

    bigbailes Well-Known Member

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    Sorry I refuse to deal in absolutes when it comes to something unpredictable like 18-22 year olds playing a sport. A lot can and probably will change over the next four weeks but forgive me if I think Tennessee’s resume is better than oregon’s, just my opinion.

    as for Wilner, please get a little more condescending when telling me about the guy that covers the conference better than anyone else. Pretty much every fan base in the P12 thinks Wilner hates them, doesn’t mean it’s true, just means he’s doing his job looking at thing objectively. I don’t alway like what he writes but he has a pulse on the league like no one else. As a fellow journalist I tend to give them the benefit of the doubt that they don’t ‘hate’ your team, just see it in a different light than you or any other fan. It’s like when fans complain that announcers are ‘bias against my team’ … no they just compliment both sides and you don’t want to hear it.

    As for not worrying about the playoffs, my guess is this is all moot as oregon/USC/UCLA will most likely all slip up at least once each down the stretch because that’s what happens in this sport.
     
  13. Natebishop3

    Natebishop3 Don't tread on me!

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    This just cements to me that it’s foolish to schedule these difficult OOC games. If we had taken on cupcake U and were undefeated we would be in the top 4. I get that we are trying to show that we belong, but all it has done is bite us in the ass.
     
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  14. bigbailes

    bigbailes Well-Known Member

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    Look no further than washington’s team that went to the CFP in 2016. They played Rutgers, Idaho and Portland State, all from husky stadium. This is why I hate the committee selecting teams because they’ll tell you one thing (they want to see big teams play each other) but then select a team that does the opposite.
     
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  15. Natebishop3

    Natebishop3 Don't tread on me!

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    Yup. It’s not worth it. The benefit just isn’t worth the potential cost. If Oregon had somehow won, great. They’re rank 1 or something. But if they had played Portland state they’d probably be top 4 instead of outside looking in.
     
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  16. STOMP

    STOMP mere fan

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    You are welcome to your opinion, just as I (& others here) are welcome to the opinion that it's ridiculous to say extremely likely when it's anything but according to most including the upstanding journalist you laud "that covers the conference better than anyone else".

    Could the committee ultimately choose Tennessee over Oregon if both win out? Unlikely according to most, but of course they could. Assuming they both win out, style points would factor in along with quality of opponent. UT's three remaining opponents have a combined record of 13-14. None are ranked. Oregon's last 3 regular season opponents have a combined record of 20-8 with two of them ranked... & then they'd play a championship game against another likely ranked opponent.

    So, assuming both win out, 4 quality opponents on the upcoming schedule for Oregon verses only 1 with a winning record for Tennessee. It's not bias, it's math

    STOMP
     
    Last edited: Nov 11, 2022
  17. bigbailes

    bigbailes Well-Known Member

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    J
    When it comes down to the OPINIONS of the 13 people that make up the committee, math has very little to do with it, they can take whoever they choose and come up with whatever reasoning they want. Won't shock me one way or the other.
     
  18. STOMP

    STOMP mere fan

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    but you know the OPINIONS of those 13 so well as to state whats extremely likely? Whatever dude

    STOMP
     
  19. PtldPlatypus

    PtldPlatypus All in, baby Staff Member Global Moderator Moderator

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    I think you need to read some stuff by Dave Bartoo or Adam McClintock. They have repeatedly shown that there is a pretty clear formula for determining the CFP rankings, and they nail it every week.
     
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  20. SlyPokerDog

    SlyPokerDog Woof! Staff Member Administrator

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    I love the Ducks but even I'm not seeing them as one of the 4 best college teams.
     
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