Exclusive Explaining the Problem Facing the NBA That No One Really Understands

I posted this in another thread, but thought it deserved it's own thread. I'm debating the impact of casual fans compared to die-hard fans, and how the NBA is going to face a decline in income, especially when the TV Deal hits.

This TV Deal was extremely rich for the NBA due to the casual fans who will watch a lot of "superstar matchups" on national TV. In reality, the NBA doesn't make anywhere close to the money off of them as the do die-hard fans. Losing one die-hard fan is like losing ten casual fans, because the casual fan will sit at home and watch a couple game a week on TV (to see Westbrook play against Lonzo and the Warriors play against the Rockets, etc.), while the average die-hard fan will pay hundreds of dollars a year on tickets, pay $70-$100 on a jersey, pay $200 for NBA League Pass, as well as watch some nationally televised games. While the NBA makes more money off of bigger markets, they're less important, as those markets have more casual fans that will never lose interest in the NBA. The NBA is making the mistake of catering to these markets when these markets (New York, Los Angeles, Miami, etc.) have the least potential to cause a decline in the average annual income of the NBA. Fans of these teams won't get tired of catering to superstars, greedy advertising, specified over-coverage of a few different players/teams. Yes, there's die-hard fans in big markets, but they won't have a problem with the NBA covering their team less, or anything the NBA may do.

The one's who are going to have a problem is Bucks fans, Blazer fans, Utah fans, etc. I'm starting to see die-hard fans get frustrated with the direction the NBA is going, and I think that they'll slowly stop spending a ton of money on tickets, and jerseys (even though ad patches won't be on fan-bought jerseys, I think they'll affect sales), and other factors. The NBA will lose a ton of money as it's die-hard fans get tired of supporting a product that doesn't cater to them, that doesn't care about them, and that doesn't have the parity to give them hope in their team competing in a championship (because the answer to superteams is to form more superteams in big markets, which the media perpetrates, such as "Lebron and PG13 going to LA to play with Lonzo").

The next TV deal will be lower because the NBA will lose more fans in total, but that won't be the biggest hit. The NBA will have to rely even more on the TV deal than before, but I think the media is already regretting the TV deals they've struck with the NBA. The next TV deal will be lower, and with the parity problem combined with the way the NBA is being marketed, there will be less die-hard fans willing to spend a ton of money on the NBA, and the NBA's salary cap will go down. There's a reason there wasn't a big bump in the salary cap this year that was thought to have happen a year ago. The salary cap will drop in a few years, and then the NBA will realize that their marketing plan doesn't work, and they'll have to fix the parity problem. They'll also realize that they need to alter it's playoff system, as playing 82 games for a seed between 1 and 8 waters down each game. The comparison I'll use is the MLB, which plays 162 games, and playoff spots often come down to a game or two. The big difference is, winning your division is meaningful, as you don't have to play a Wild Card game. If you don't win the division, you're battling just to make the playoffs, with the 4th or 5th spot being the difference in home-field advantage in a win-or-go-home 1 game playoff.

If the NBA had parity and cared about the collective product put together by all 30 of it's teams (the way baseball does), I'd pay $200 for NBA League Pass, and I'd watch a lot of other games on National TV. @@HCP will respond with "But it's great players playing great basketball, why wouldn't you want to watch?". My response to that is that the NBA has made me have an aversion to other superstars beceause they overmarket them, and care more about the casual fan paying attention to a select group of stars than they do about the die-hard fans in small markets that supply them with more income. So why would I want to watch Westbrook play because he's great, when the NBA values the fan from Kentucky who's an "OKC" fan just because he geeks out over the collection of stats that is a triple double more than me, a guy who pays for tickets all the time hoping his "small" hometown team will overcome the big-market bias created my the NBA and who gives the NBA more of my money than the casual fan from Kentucky?

The NBA is broken. They're success is hitting a peak right now because social media has created a huge amount of casual fans and the die-hard fans from small markets aren't yet fed up with the NBAs bullshit. However, it's starting to turn, and the NBA is going to realize just how important die-hard fans from small markets are.

 

Why didn't the 1980s kill off the "hardcore fan" when just a handful of teams were true contenders (and essentially no one in the West other than the Lakers, who went to the Finals 8 years of the decade)? The NBA marketed the hell out of Magic, Michael and Bird in the 1980s, among others. The 1980s is when the NBA embraced marketing stars, which is also when the league went from being close to bankrupt to being a marquee attraction.

I think you're projecting your personal frustration onto "hardcore fans" at large. Casual fans still spend money--maybe not as much per person as a hardcore, but there are also many more of them. A full stadium is almost certainly majority casual fans. Just different ones each night. Also, the divide between casual fans and hardcore fans is really not over stars--that casual fans are stoked by stars while hardcore fans just care about the salary cap details of their hometown teams. Most hardcore fans care a ton about stars and want to watch them. Perhaps you've developed an aversion to them, but when I look at fan forums (casual fans don't spend their time talking basketball online) stars are a pretty big deal.

 

What? I read the whole original post and still not quite sure why things will go bad? Team and the league made more money last year than ever. Not quite sure from your post why you believe this will change? There's more people watching the NBA worldwide than ever before.

 

I thought it was a decent movie but not that great

 

How much money did players make in the 1980s? The state of the NBA is completely different. Those stars were drafted, and stayed with their teams for almost their entire career. Nowadays, it's a superteam in big market (SF/OAK), that was built through the draft but which a star latched onto in free agency, and if/when it's countered with stars like Lebron and PG going to LAL to counter it, it'll have an affect on die-hard fans across the country. Superteams built through the draft are a good thing, but when it comes to the trend of stars gravitating to big markets to form superteams where only 2 or 3 teams have a chance to win a championship each season, the hardcore fanbase of the NBA will decline. Stars are a big deal, and the problem isn't that there are stars or that they're not fun to watch. It's the combination of many problems and the height of the marketing scheme the NBA has employed. If you think that this isn't already chasing fans away, well the proof is in the pudding. Why did the NBA salary cap projection for this year drop around $10M from what it was originally stated to be compared to where it was? Where do you think the money was lost? There was a reason why the NBA Finals didn't have a drop-off in viewership, when the rest of the playoffs did.

 

People watching the NBA from a different country doesn't supply anything close to the money that a die-hard small-market fan does. A lot of teams lost viewership last year, and it's actual growth is slowing more than projected. I think it's at the point that fans are getting tired of the way the NBA is being ran, and they way it's going, with shit such as Lebron possibly going to LAL, Lavar Ball's AAU team being covered more than the bottom 15 NBA markets combined, and other factors such as these that will tire the hardcore NBA fan. I see it here, I see it in other markets, and I feel it.

 

Bring back the ABA!!! I like a lot of what's happened in hoops....love the Big 3 league...World competition is way better than it used to be...I don't see any reason to think the NBA will lose anytime soon....if they were, we'd see commercials by ping pong or badminton stars....betcha can't name the world dart champion either....me either! Basketball has a very visible brand....when Beyoncé wants a franchise...you've arrived in the world of pop culture

 

Meet the Asian fans! All few billion of them! You have no idea how big this game is worldwide....it's everywhere now...Kevin Durant is in India and Steph Curry is in China......neither are in Medford ...says something...Phillipino League is legit...

 

http://thediplomat.com/2013/10/american-basketball-scores-big-with-asian-fans/
old article but.....

 

Apparently, the money was lost from the loss of revenue in fewer playoff games due to Golden State sweeping to the Finals, Cleveland nearly sweeping to the Finals and Golden State dispatching the Cavaliers in 5.

That's not lack of interest or fans being chased away.

 

I've always said the nba season is too long, and decides too little. Half the teams make the playoffs and the only benefit of having a better record is 1 home court advantage game.

Average ratings fell from 4.3 to 3.3 after the 1998 lockout season. Ratings in the 2011-2012 lockout season were also the highest they'd been in the last 17 years.

Ratings last year were only 1.9. I really think there is a lot more competing for viewers attention these days, with so much Netflix, on demand, stuff and high budget TV series.

 

I'm not saying it'll break either, just saying that, at this pace, the NBA will be setting a decline in revenue shortly.

 

I dunno, I watched the playoffs less than general this year and I figure there were many more like me. The "less games" is a cop out excuse.

 

Oh yeah? Do those fans pay over $1000 a year on season tickets?

 

Not saying they'll lose revenue, more like they'll be making less and the salary cap will decline after this TV Deal, if not before.

 

Spot on! The numbers game overseas in mind boggling and the NBA has done a fantastic job overseas. Yao Ming was a bridge for Billions and more Billions.

 

When you live halfway across the world from NBA franchises.....you figure it out...dumb question...are you a season ticket holder? I'm not and I'm only 300 miles from Portland

 

After Portland was eliminated from the playoffs I found them all but unwatchable.
Between the poor announcing, endless commercials, and shitty camera angles. I was very much done watching professional basketball last year.
I had far more fun with pickup games, or coaching kids.

It's actually the first time in many years I haven't watched the majority of the NBA post-season.

 

It was a rhetorical question that you took as an actual question.. Smh.