Fivethirtyeight simulation

Discussion in 'Portland Trail Blazers' started by Denny Crane, Mar 14, 2016.

  1. Denny Crane

    Denny Crane It's not even loaded! Staff Member Administrator

    Joined:
    May 24, 2007
    Messages:
    72,943
    Likes Received:
    10,496
    Trophy Points:
    113
    Occupation:
    Never lost a case
    Location:
    Boston Legal
    HailBlazers, dviss1, Darkwebs and 3 others like this.
  2. Boob-No-More

    Boob-No-More Why you no hire big man coach?

    Joined:
    Oct 24, 2008
    Messages:
    19,094
    Likes Received:
    22,756
    Trophy Points:
    113
    Wow, DAL and HOU currently tied at 33 - 33, but they project HOU with a 93% chance of making the playoffs, but DAL only 33%. I know DAL has lost 5 in a row, but HOU isn't exactly playing great. Must be a strength of schedule thing.

    BNM
     
  3. Denny Crane

    Denny Crane It's not even loaded! Staff Member Administrator

    Joined:
    May 24, 2007
    Messages:
    72,943
    Likes Received:
    10,496
    Trophy Points:
    113
    Occupation:
    Never lost a case
    Location:
    Boston Legal
    I think they played a simulation a few million "rest of the seasons"
     
  4. BlazerCaravan

    BlazerCaravan Hug a Bigot... to Death

    Joined:
    Sep 20, 2008
    Messages:
    28,071
    Likes Received:
    10,381
    Trophy Points:
    113
    Yeah they do 50,000 full league simulations after every game result for the rest of the season.
     
  5. Strenuus

    Strenuus Moderator Staff Member Moderator

    Joined:
    Aug 9, 2013
    Messages:
    39,295
    Likes Received:
    20,664
    Trophy Points:
    113
    Tunchi is pissed.

    I love it.
     
    Orion Bailey, dviss1 and Darkwebs like this.
  6. Tunchi

    Tunchi Well-Known Member

    Joined:
    May 11, 2015
    Messages:
    2,878
    Likes Received:
    1,003
    Trophy Points:
    113
    I'll come for you when we got bounced from the first round and we have no pick..

    I can tell your a participation trophy kinda guy lol
     
  7. kjironman1

    kjironman1 Hoops didn't like my other Slogan!

    Joined:
    May 16, 2014
    Messages:
    9,887
    Likes Received:
    9,924
    Trophy Points:
    113
    Occupation:
    Ironworker
    Location:
    Portland
    Neil will most likely deal for a pick. I'm thinking it won't matter much either way and the Playoffs are better all around.
     
    HailBlazers and Orion Bailey like this.
  8. Strenuus

    Strenuus Moderator Staff Member Moderator

    Joined:
    Aug 9, 2013
    Messages:
    39,295
    Likes Received:
    20,664
    Trophy Points:
    113
    You realize participation trophies are given out to EVERY team, right? 16 teams don't make the playoffs. And, if anything, a pick is a "participation" award.. sooo...

    I don't care about the pick, so you have nothing to come at me for. Playoffs is a success.
     
    Red Rooster and Orion Bailey like this.
  9. Strenuus

    Strenuus Moderator Staff Member Moderator

    Joined:
    Aug 9, 2013
    Messages:
    39,295
    Likes Received:
    20,664
    Trophy Points:
    113
    Tunchi doesn't understand the simple logic things. He's a "participation award" type of guy. A pick is a participation award.
     
  10. KingSpeed

    KingSpeed Veteran

    Joined:
    Sep 27, 2008
    Messages:
    56,866
    Likes Received:
    17,497
    Trophy Points:
    113
    Occupation:
    actor
    Location:
    New York
    And what will you do that will be productive?
     
  11. trailblazer18

    trailblazer18 Well-Known Member

    Joined:
    Nov 17, 2014
    Messages:
    3,191
    Likes Received:
    3,830
    Trophy Points:
    113
    Location:
    Iowa
    Looking at the last 14 to 15 games for each of the following teams: Rockets, Blazers, Grizzlies, Mavs, and Jazz. I predict the following final standings.

    5. Rockets 45-37
    6. Trail Blazers 44-38
    7. Grizzlies 42-40 (Not sure who has the tie breaker)
    8. Mavs 42-40
    9. Jazz 41-41

    I'm assuming the huge beat down the Rockets gave the Grizzlies and all their injuries are a sign of how the rest of the season will go for them.
     
    Denny Crane likes this.
  12. rasheedfan2005

    rasheedfan2005 Well-Known Member

    Joined:
    Nov 18, 2013
    Messages:
    8,543
    Likes Received:
    4,671
    Trophy Points:
    113
    i still dont understand this line of thinking, i thought if we got the pick then we lose one next year. so either way we are losing a pick it's just whether it is this year or next. why tank?
     
    Orion Bailey likes this.
  13. dviss1

    dviss1 Emcee Referee

    Joined:
    Aug 10, 2011
    Messages:
    28,370
    Likes Received:
    25,606
    Trophy Points:
    113
    He wants us to suck for 2 years so we can only give them a 2nd in 2018.
     
  14. rasheedfan2005

    rasheedfan2005 Well-Known Member

    Joined:
    Nov 18, 2013
    Messages:
    8,543
    Likes Received:
    4,671
    Trophy Points:
    113
    fuck that
     
  15. Tunchi

    Tunchi Well-Known Member

    Joined:
    May 11, 2015
    Messages:
    2,878
    Likes Received:
    1,003
    Trophy Points:
    113
    Naw its not that. We're clearly a piece away from really being dangerous why not use the asset we can get NOW and go for that last piece in a trade? Then next year when our window really starts who cares about a draft pick. Our window does not start this year, this is just the appetizer so we need all the assets we can get NOW
     
  16. PtldPlatypus

    PtldPlatypus Moderator Staff Member Moderator

    Joined:
    Nov 10, 2008
    Messages:
    24,500
    Likes Received:
    27,143
    Trophy Points:
    113
    I'm curious--what do you think are the primary reasons that we are winning more games than we should have (if we were seeking to keep the pick)? Is Stotts coaching too hard? Are guys playing over their heads? Are Dame/CJ playing too much? Something else? Help me understand what you think the Blazers should have done differently this year to win fewer games.
     
    dviss1 and Orion Bailey like this.
  17. B-Roy

    B-Roy Blazer Fan

    Joined:
    Oct 14, 2008
    Messages:
    18,278
    Likes Received:
    7,692
    Trophy Points:
    113
    upload_2016-3-16_12-44-34.png

    Look at that. I've never seen a discrepancy that big.
     
    Red Rooster and BlazerCaravan like this.
  18. Orion Bailey

    Orion Bailey Well-Known Member

    Joined:
    Jan 27, 2015
    Messages:
    16,458
    Likes Received:
    13,922
    Trophy Points:
    113

    Umm playoff experience is an asset.......Some people just don't get it.
     
    dviss1, Red Rooster and kjironman1 like this.
  19. PtldPlatypus

    PtldPlatypus Moderator Staff Member Moderator

    Joined:
    Nov 10, 2008
    Messages:
    24,500
    Likes Received:
    27,143
    Trophy Points:
    113
    Pretty crazy. Probably just slightly skewed by their 49-point loss last night and their 50-point loss to Golden State at the beginning of the season. Absent those two games, they have a positive point differential.
     
    kjironman1 likes this.
  20. B-Roy

    B-Roy Blazer Fan

    Joined:
    Oct 14, 2008
    Messages:
    18,278
    Likes Received:
    7,692
    Trophy Points:
    113
    17th on offense 19th on defense. Those are pretty bad. Portland is 6th and 19th in comparison and are about 4 games behind.

    Memphis has been extremely lucky.
     
    kjironman1 and BlazerCaravan like this.

Share This Page