A SportsLine columnist on what NBA GMs have told him about who they'd rather have, between Oden and Rose: http://ken-berger.blogs.sportsline.com/mcc/blogs/entry/11838893/12079145?source=rss_blogs_NBA
I wonder if most GMs would take Rose over Oden right now. Say, they could sign "either or" at the end of the season, and Oden gets a little better, more consistant, and Rose continues to play well. I wonder if the majority would choose Rose because they don't have to worry about injuries. It's close.
Rose has some injury concerns as well - and one of the greatest things you have to remember is that without his supreme athletic ability Rose is not going to be anywhere as effective. We already see that Oden, even with a portion of what we can expect his athletic ability to be - is a big impact player on defense.
Well, the 6 GMs who gave an opinion leaned to Oden, by a 5-1 margin. I suspect, based on that and based on what efficiency numbers say about a recovering Oden, that the great majority of GMs would still take Oden. Even not yet in basketball shape and in his rookie season, Oden has fantastic efficiency numbers. Further, opposing teams almost unfailing double-team Oden in the post...it goes to show that other teams believe Oden will overmatch single defenders. Oden doesn't look good trying to score against double-teams...but he has so much development left. And he's already a rebounding and a defensive force. I don't think Oden is any worse a prospect today than he was when he was drafted.
The surgery throws the entire paradigm off kilter. I imagine Oden would be a much more polished offensive player right now if not for his injury and subsequent surgery. I'm just happy Oden is playing, and he is definitely making a big difference on the defensive end, even if his blocks don't lead the league. So, as for a "prospect", I agree he is still an elite entity, but for results, the surgery has tempered the results and has led to some knee-jerk bashing by those less patient.
So with this latest comparison, is the Durant vs. Oden officially over? I find it funny that they have to take the next best prospect now that the Thunder are in the gutter and Durant seems to look like a perimeter chucker. Of course it's not fair to say that Durant has hit his ceiling, but it seems like only Bill Simmons would take Durant now.
Derrick Rose is a superstar out of the box. These GM's would be crazy to take Oden over him. Kevin Durant is a taller Jamal Crawford, Michael Beasley is MIA. Greg Oden does look to be the only one outside of Rose to become a superstar at this early point of the big 4. But Oden doesn't seem to have that same drive as Rose to become a great player. Oden doesn't seem the like the kind of guy who will put in the effort to become a dominant offensive force. Right now, I would say that Greg Oden's looking, at most likely being a Ben Wallace type player rather than a Dwight Howard, with a more respectable offensive game on an account that he doesn't have a paralyzed hand like Wallace.
You obviously have no idea what you are talking about when it comes to Oden and work ethic. They had to force the kid to stay out of the gym for his rehab. Drive is something that Oden is not lacking. Right now his confidence is lacking, but he's not even 100% yet. And how would Oden not reach Howard's offensive game? All the guy does is dunk. He has no jumper, and from what I've seen from Magic fans, he hasn't developed his offensive game as much as they'd like. Oden has nice touch, is quick and his explosiveness will come back with time, and he's a physical monster. To limit Oden to Ben Wallace's offense repertoire as his ceiling is retarded.
I'm not sure where you got the "doesn't have enough drive to put in the effort" thing, but of course a Bulls fan is going to see Rose as the superior choice to Greg. As for comparing Greg Oden to Ben Wallace, there's no correlation. Oden can hit foul shots, is about 4 inches taller, has great hands and good court vision, and hadn't played competitive ball for about 18 months, which set his development and feel for the game back quite a bit. In just the short 13 or so games since Greg's come back into the lineup, you can already see that he's less rushed on his offensive moves, and with a couple of years of practice with NBA coaches I expect this part of his game to get better. However, I do think Rose is one helluva player and will probably end up one of the top 3 point guards to come out in the past decade (if he stays healthy of course).
Greg Oden, this year, is about as good as Ben Wallace was at his peak (when he won a ring). Their PER is the same, they block, rebound and assist at about the same rate (Greg is a better rebounder, the same in assists and a fraction of a point behind on blocks using per-36 stats). He is however scoring 4 more points per-36 than Wallace did while committing one more turn-over. So - to say that Greg Oden is like Ben Wallace is true - but when you remember that you compare Wallace at his peak and Greg is a rookie coming back from MF surgery - it would be foolish to think Greg's ceiling is Ben Wallace. If you really think this is as good Greg is going to be - taking Rose over him is a no-brainer - but if you have brain - you choose Greg Oden 10 out 10 times - knowing that people usually do get better after their rookie season, knowing that Bigs usually take longer to adjust to the league and remembering that it usually takes people 2 years to fully regain their athletic abilities after a MF surgery. The interesting thing to remember is that as good as Rose has been - the Bulls are now playing .450 ball compared to the .402 last year - they are winning .048 more games this year. The Blazers are at .682 compared to last year's .500 - so they are winning .182 more this year. Greg Oden is already a bigger impact than Rose...
Here's what I see. Oden has a ton of respect for his teamates "TO A FAULT!!!" His whole life there has been no queston where the ball is going. Greg has forgotten that he is a franchise changing player. We all know that ROY is the man, but Greg needs to want to eat out there and he needs to be fed. Once Greg calms down and realizes he the biggest strongest guy out there, he'll be unstopable! Soon he'll demand the ball and life for the rest of his teamates will be so much easier.
There are a many other factors for both teams other than just the additions of Rose and Oden, so you can't simply subtract last years winning percentage from this years winning percentage, 23 games into the season, and say categorically that Oden's had a bigger impact... even though it might be true.
Greg's work ethic, like every other player on the team, is the least of our concern. He's not a dominant scorer... YET, but I see little things he can easily correct to get his scoring up right now. Things like holding the ball closer to his chest when he goes up for a dunk. He has a bad habit of holding the ball too low so it gets slapped away or going up for a dunk with the ball clear back behind his head so it can be blocked from behind. If he just corrected those he would probably already be averaging 4 to 8 extra points a game. I think Rose is great and I'm pulling for the Bulls in the east. The team is almost as likeable as my Blazers and Rose and the Bulls are just fun to watch. But the bottomline is, even if Blazers had the chance to draft Rose over Oden they would still pick Oden. We've already got some pretty good guards on the team and we needed a center more than another guard.
I will tell you exactly why Greg is a bigger impact than Rose, when we ignore the record. Defensive efficiency this year. Before he came back - with the same team we currently have - they were #30 in the league - during his tenure they were #9 (currently, after a bad loss against the Celtics, #7 before). Before he came back - they were giving 100 PPG, now - 89 - that's an 11 point swing. Rose might be a great offensive player and will no doubt become a great PG as time goes on - but the addition of Rose to the Blazers last year roster would not be anywhere as big as the addition of Greg to last year's Bulls roster. Are the Bulls better of having Rose with their current team or with having Hienrich/Gordon as their backcourt with Greg in the middle? Can you imagine how good a Bulls team that won 49 games 2 years ago would be with a post presence and rebounder of Greg's abilities? On the other hand - adding Rose to last year's Blazers would make them a better offensive team, no doubt - but interior defense would still be good for only half a game and he would not be able to have the same offensive impact next to Roy, Rudy and Aldridge. The only thing Rose might have over Greg is injury concerns. It starts and end there.
I'm not buying that Greg Oden is as good as Ben Wallace. You can't just look at per 36 or per 48 minute stats. There is no doubt in my mind that Oden cannot keep up that type of production in extended minutes like Wallace did, although he can in a few years. To compare him to Ben Wallace is to say he would be a great defensive anchor, but not a dominant post up option. I did say he would be quite a bit better on offense, because he doesn't have to deal with a paralyzed hand like Ben Wallace had to. It's not to say that Oden doesn't have work ethic. He's no Eddy Curry. But he doesn't seem to have that Michael Jordan, Derrick Rose, Kobe Bryant drive to be the best. Also, it's hard to make the argument that Oden is having a bigger impact than Rose when the Bulls now have one of the top backcourts in the NBA according to Per Differential (#5 at point guard and #4 at shooting guard), while the Blazers are only #14 at center (with a negative PER differential). Derrick Rose (and Ben Gordon) have the problem that they have to drag ass while on the court. Bulls have the worst powerforwards and center in the league, and are only 17 at small forward. Portland on the other hand is in the top half of the league at all positions, center being the Blazers worst position. Derrick Rose (and Ben Gordon...and Larry Hughes) have all played great. It's not their fault that their front court imploded into the biggest pile of crap that you can call a front court in NBA history.
The issue with good defensive centers is not just how they do against other centers - it's how they do against the other team - GO's defensive impact is mostly against the other team's smaller players who are blocked or intimidated in the paint (and that's why the Blazers are so good defensively when he is there). Remember also that GO lost 6 games at the start of the year - so the overall center position ranking is not really indicative of his impact on the C position. The time GO missed at the start of the year really does show however how much impact his presence is on the defensive end of the game - the Blazers give 11 less points per game when he is playing compared to when he is not - and they are #9 in defensive efficiency when he in vs. #30 when he is not. As for the idea that GO can not retain his production for longer than 20 minutes - that's poppycock - he had his best games when he was left in the game for 30+ minutes - the issue is that Portland is blessed with Pryzbilla playing the best basketball of his career next to GO and the coach being smart and distributing their minutes to keep them fresh - given Portland's crazy early schedule. Remember - Portland played 2 more games than Chicago overall and these also include 4 more road games - so Portland played more and traveled a lot more - keeping the rotations short where he is able to is the smart thing to do - we are lucky to have a coach that is actually smart. As for Oden not having the drive to be the best - that's poppycock of the greatest order. He played with only one good hand when his wrist was wounded in college and learned how to shoot free-throws with his left, taking his team to the championship game. He worked his rear off to return from MF surgery and got in trouble because he played games at a local gym last year when the Blazers did not want him. The idea that Greg Oden does not have the desire to be the best he can is just absurd. The kid should have his picture under the entry for "dedication" in the encyclopedia. Sorry buddy, I love to watch Rose play and he has a great future in front of him - but he is not close to being a better prospect than GO and he is not close to having GO's overall impact even at this sub-par stage of Greg's career. Look at it this way - everyone is gushing at how much better Rose is than what they expected him to be and how underwhelmed they are at where GO is - but their PER is about the same... this right there should tell you exactly who is the better prospect...
It's not to say that Oden doesn't have work ethic. He's no Eddy Curry. But he doesn't seem to have that Michael Jordan, Derrick Rose, Kobe Bryant When you threw that out, I stopped reading. What about Maek Madsen ?? That guy has more drive than just about anybody in the league. Rose is nice, but I wouldn't even put him in the Paul, Williams category by a mile. MJ is retired, get over it. Big man have always dominated this league, sans MJ.
Derrick Rose is better than Greg Oden right now and more impactful. It's not that hard to see. I don't see how Oden working out and playing in a pick up game show he has the drive to the best. I work out and play pick up games too, do I have the drive to be the best player ever? That is a lot different then the coaches locking Derrick Rose out of the gym because he was in there too long.
Drive only gets you far, you also need talent. Ben Gordon has a lot of drive, maybe more than Derrick Rose, but he's not good at dribbling the ball, which makes him just a fringe allstar instead of one of the best in the league. Derrick Rose is clearly not lacking in talent.
