How many wins do you expect a healthy Blazer team to get?

So taking into consideration that this team won 54 games with a healthy Roy, healthy Aldridge and a healthy Batum and a 75% Oden for 75% of the games in 08/09.

And now two years removed from the 54-win group of a healthy Roy, Aldridge and Batum. Add upgrades at PG from Blake to Miller. Add upgrade of Outlaw with former DPOY Camby. Add upgrade of Webster with Babbitt. Add upgrade of backup to Roy from Rudy to Matthews. And add an upgrade of a 100% Oden for 70+ games and how many wins would you be upset if we only got.

 

If we got the kind of health you're describing, I'd be disappointed with fewer than 55 wins. 55-60 wins would be acceptable, but I think the team would have a shot for 60+ wins.

 

Does Nate know how to appropriately use a full Blazers roster? Has that ever been proven with this particular group? Is Miller coming off the bench again? Gag.

Based on a healthy roster, I would say 55-60. But I have some reservations.

 

There's a difference between your thread title and your actual poll question.

 

Sorry. I changed my thought process mid-stream there and didn't know how to fix it once I clicked the button.

 

I'm not sure this team has the right compliment of players to get to 60 wins: too guard heavy, still (possibly) no legit low post threat, perhaps not enough outside shooting, perimeter defense could still be an issue, etc.

I would expect 54-57 wins though, and that's nothing to sneeze at.

 

Kyle Korver and Boozer think they're a title contender.

I laugh. Our roster, if healthy is way better.

 

I think 58-60. One thing, I do not believe Babbitt is an upgrade from Marty at all! We will miss Webster's defense and his ability to spread the floor. He wasn't consistent by any means, but I believe his skills will be missed.

 

I am not so sure that Webs will be missed. We may miss his D, but Batum is a better defender and will now be able to play more minutes, and hopefully Matthews and Cunningham, both good defenders, will be good enough to cover the D for the of the time.

As far as spreading the floor, He was not a good shooter most of the time. Batum is better, Matthews is better, Babbit may be better, and who knows who else will step up. I really wish Andre had a better outside shot since that would nullify our shooting problems.

 

For healthy, I'm assuming no major players are out more than 5 games or so. It would have to be at least 55, maybe closer to 60. Then again, there is a very small chance that ALL of those guys stay healthy. I'm just hoping for minor injuries. Give me an ankle sprain any day.

 

No way they're "healthy" but I'd expect 82 if they were.

I expect maybe 50.

 

this poll confused me...

 

I don't agree with your assumptions.

Babbitt is very unlikely to be an upgrade over Martell.

Blake had a career year that year. If age catches up to Miller even a little bit, that won't pan out as a large upgrade.

Rudy was good as a rookie. Not sure Matthews is guaranteed to be better than Rudy was.

Of course, these are different types of players, so how it all plays out is a big question.

 

I agree with this.

I don't think we have the perfect blend of talents and experience to be a team that dominates so completely that we cruise to 62+ games. Among our top 8 or 9 players we don't have enough perimeter defense, proven 3pt shooting, and proven paint scoring.

That may all change with a bit of roster tweaking and more experience. If we can upgrade the PG position so we have a guy that can defend and spread the floor, and if Batum and Matthews establish themselves as feared 3pt shooters, and Oden establishes that he must be doubled everytime in the post,

then we are SET!

 

I said 52-54. IMO there are still too many players with the same basic skill level, and I think that will lead to some sort of problems in the locker room.

Bayless wants and deserves PT
Rudy wants and deserves PT
Roy wants and deserves PT
Matthews wants and deserves PT
Batum wants and deserves PT
Miller wants and deserves PT


Oden wants and deserves PT
Joel wants and deserves PT
Camby wants and deserves PT

 

I expect 53 wins; Oden has a 53-29 record in the 82 games he's played, and we were on course to win 53 last year before he went down. This is not to say I won't hope for more, but this season? 53 is going to be pretty good in the NW division.

 

So do you hold is as a non-factor that Camby is there, or do you think there is any potential improvement to the roster in having Oden out there for 82 games (as your forecast appears to be assuming that we'd win 53 wins with a healthy Oden for 82 games). I would think having a DPOY top 20 frontcourt player to play the off-minutes between Oden and LMA, it would add a large increase over those last 82 games or the pace we were on in those first 21 games last season.

 

55 wins and a top three defensive rating.

More importantly, they would make at least the second round of the playoffs.

 

GIven the natural progression of our young talent (batum, bayless, cunningham) and the upgrade that is Wes Matthews over Rudy Fernandez. Which on the defensive end is a huge up grade and even probably so on the offensive end considering how Rudy played in the playoffs. Having oden healthy for even 60 games and camby for a full season, should raise our win total by at least 4 games. This offseason the west definitely got weaker, I say 56-58 and possibly 60 if luck evens out from last year.