I am feeling quite optimistic at the moment. End of season and draft thoughts.

We're sort of in a win-win situation right now honestly. What I saw from the team last night was encouraging. At times we really looked like a good basketball team. If we lose games we end up in the lottery, if we win games we fall outside of it (I know, thanks, Captain Obvious). Regardless this is a very deep draft and I'll talk about some guys I feel could be great for this team later.

Nurkic has a long way to go but it seems like he may end up being one of those players that really just needed a change of scenery. He is doing so many things that don't show up in the box score. For a center, he has surprisingly quick hands on defense. Also, my favorite play from last night was a pretty simple one actually, Nurk sets a deadly screen 30 feet from the basket and Dame gets to the rim uncontested late in the 4th. Loving the way he crashes the boards too, and he appears to be a very underrated passer. I didn't realize how massive he actually was, he's 7 feet tall and all of 280 pounds.

Moving forward we will have Aminu and ET back. Aminu obviously adds something to our defense and I really think ET is a guy who can end up being a fan favorite here. You take the good with the bad with a guy like him. One thing you can always count on though is his effort (he's sort of like Mason in that regard). He's the kind of role player every team needs.

I'm writing this post assuming that Damian begins to play like Damian again. I'm his biggest critic as you all surely know by now, but his ability to score and get going is something no one can deny. CJ's development has been incredible and it shows every night. Damian and CJ are never going to be good defenders, they just aren't, but as we've seen in the past (think RoLo, LMA, Wes, Nico), if you build a team with the right balance of offense/defense the inefficiencies don't seem so bad.

That brings me to the draft. All the good you've heard about this class is true. Personally, I LOVE College Basketball, and have seen just about every projected 1st rounder play several times this season. There are so many directions we can go in a few months. I expect to see some trades. But trade or no trade, lottery or no lottery, there are a handful of guys in the draft who could really help this team next year.

Frank Ntilikina - 6'5" 18 year old PG. Look up this guys highlights. Excellent in the P&R, can shoot the 3, matchup nightmare for most Point Guards. Can also guard multiple positions. Think about how you saw Shabazz/CJ/Dame operate at times together last night and then imagine if Shabazz was 5 inches taller and good at defense. He would be a great backup PG for us who could eventually start. If we are in the lottery I want him.

Justin Patton (Creighton) - 7 footer who has enormous potential on both sides of the ball. Athletic. Shooting 70% this season, and though he's only shot 13 3's this year, he's made 7 of them. Yeah, yeah, small sample size I know. But I've seen Creighton play a handful of times both pre and post Watson injury and this guy is for real. His athleticism also leads me to believe he could be a legit rim protector in the bigs. He'll be available mid-first round.

Justin Jackson (UNC) - Will be available mid to late first round. 6'8" Small Forward shooting 40% from 3 and 46% on the year in the best conference in the country. Still a work in progress defensively but the kid can absolutely light it up. He has a 7 foot wingspan and has decent quickness. Watch him/UNC in the tournament if you get a chance.

Jon Motley (Baylor) - Another mid to late first rounder. Freak athlete. 6'8" 200lbs with a 7'3.5" wingspan. He is a high motor guy that's very raw offensively, but possesses enough potential that I'd be willing to take a risk on him late in the first round.

Lauri Markannen (Arizona) - I reckon we'd have to be in the lottery to have a crack at this guy. Still worth mentioning. He's the most efficient scorer in the country. 7 feet tall and can score from anywhere. Think Kristaps Porzingis. With the direction the NBA is headed, he's pretty much the perfect prospect offensively.

Anyway, I could go on and on but I'm actually feeling very excited this morning as far as the future goes. I should probably stop posting mid and post-game hot takes full of recency bias. A few weeks ago I was posting pretty much the opposite of this, thinking we were doomed. Oh well, that's the way I am. I've been a fan of mostly crappy teams my whole life so naturally I'm cynical. What ever. It's not very becoming but it is who I am. I'll quit rambling. How are you guys feeling and who are some prospects you like in the upcoming draft?

 

Bam is certainly intriguing. Like many of the bigs in this class, the potential is there. He's explosive and physical. Still a project offensively IMO but most 19 year old centers are.

 

Thoughts on Robert Williams?

 

Not that I think we keep all 3 picks (unless one is a euro-stash) but I would be disappointed if we didn't draft at least 2 guys who can play PF (they both don't have to be true PF's but 1 should be of course). I know some say SF might be our 2nd weakest position but I don't see it as a problem at all with Harkless and Turner. Drafting BPA is someone falls is always a good idea as well so I not saying we won't draft a PG for example but get at least one PF please!

 

Great post.

There's so many solid players in this draft that no one stands out to me yet. I haven't seen John Collins play but I see he's been lighting it up lately for Wake Forest. He'd be intriguing.

I like trying to trade that Memphis pick up 5 spots to pick Giles. If it takes both our Memphis and Cleveland pick then I want to get 2nd rounders back as well (Our stash of 2nd rounders is pretty bare).

 

BTW, Josh Jackson would be the best player for us. Jackson+Nurkic alongside a two way PF is exactly what we need.

 

One big goal, at this point, needs to be removing enough salary for Nurkic to re-sign

 

LOL, so a complete overhaul of what we started with. Great job, Neil

You're right btw

 

I like Harkless, Crabbe, Turner, and Aminu as bench pieces. Of course, it makes no sense to have all of AC, ET, and Moe. We just need talent that compliments our backcourt. An undersized frontcourt that was mediocre defensively was not the way to go.

If I'm Neil, I'm trying to trade Crabbe and our 3 picks to Philadelphia for #3 so we can pick Josh Jackson. It would save about $14M, and would put Turner as our backup guard and Harkless and Jackson at SF.

If you wanted, you could also try to trade Turner and Meyers (Brooklyn?) To clear cap space to try to sign a backup guard that can actually shoot, and then look at PFs.

I just think we have to package for big time talent then fill the gaps later, not overpay to fill the gaps then try to trade those overpaid players for big time talent.

 

Shouldn't be difficult. He's a RFA and they can go over the cap to sign him. Or are you talking about luxury tax?

Davis and Ezeli will be off the books by then. That's about 15m.

One or both of Leonard/Crabbe should be gone this summer. Pretty sure Meyers isn't in the plans. Olshey doesn't even mention him anymore. Will be easy to move too, regardless of what some think. Might have to take salary back, but it should clear enough. I also think one of Aminu/Harkless will eventually be moved as well.

Point is, no one should worry about losing Nurk.

 

If it is harder to move Meyers than you say it's going to be, is it too late to just send him to Europe? Out of site, out of mind sure would help my anxiety levels!

 

Outstanding! Another Blazersland writer possibly?

 

In a reality where players like Mozgov and Biyombo are getting 70m contracts, a 30m contract for a 25 year old big that can shoot looks pretty good. But I understand why it would be difficult for a blazer fan to see him objectively.

 

Don't get me wrong, I think you have a point that his contract isn't as bad as most say. I just think his time here is pretty much done. He could probably use a change of scenery and a different fan base that might bolster his self-confidence a bit. I'm sure having to block people on twitter for telling him that he sucks is getting old.

But really, we should just send him to train in Siberia like Rocky IV.

 

Yeah, we have this summer and next yr to do that, good thing is there is a lot more $$$ needed to pay guys on other teams and FA's between now and then, the cap will have leveled out, and teams with a lot of capspace will be greatly reduced so we very likely won't have the wild spending orgasms several GM's had last summer

 

last summer several GM's participated in an orgy of dumb contracts that IMO WILL NOT be looked at as a "new normal" because reality is setting is on how much it costs to retain your own key guys and then balancing what to pay guys to fill out one's own team. So while significant money will be spent this summer look for a lot more prudence than last yr and then the following summer look for even more as the cap levels out and more teams need to pay their own and have much less left vs the huge capspace seen around the league last summer

just look at all the teams regretting their signings

POR: Oh my god!
Lakers: Moz and Deng - awful
Atlanta: Bazemore - regrets oh yeah
ORL: Biz another awful signing
Knicks: Noah - probably the worst signing of all

These just off the top of my head, I can't even think of a good UFA signing for someone who paid over 15 mil per - was there one?

 

Durant of course was a great signing and Whiteside chose his own team. Mahimni/Parsons were more bad deals

 

Actually, I'm pretty sure there will be more orgy. However, I don't think the size of the contracts will go up, like I previously thought they would. Remember, some players will signing $200 mil contracts - that'll take a bite out of their cap!