Insider: Warriors Preview

And the drought goes on. It's been 12 long seasons since the Golden State Warriors last qualified for the postseason, and in most of them they haven't even come close. 2005-06 was supposed to be the year that changed, as the acquisition of Baron Davis and the development of several recent first-round draft picks had the Warriors touted as one of the league's up-and-coming teams.

Instead it was more of the same. The Warriors got off to a strong start, going 12-6 out of the gate, and stayed in the playoff race for three-quarters of the season. But a 6-19 swoon after the All-Star break sent Golden State's execs on their annual journey to Secaucus for the draft lottery. What made it more frustrating was the perception that no progress was made -- it was the fourth straight year the team won between 34 and 38 games.

In reality, the fast start was probably something of a mirage. The Warriors benefited from unusually poor 3-point shooting by their opponents, not to mention a steady diet of New Yorks, Portlands, Atlantas and Charlottes. Once that figure corrected to a more reasonable number and the quality of the opponents increased, the Warriors were no match (unless the opponent was Dallas, that is -- the Warriors won in the Mavs' building twice).

Golden State was undone by several heartbreaking finishes -- it went 7-14 in games decided by three points or less -- and even more, it may have been undone by its own immaturity. As a young, guard-oriented team with an inexperienced coach in Mike Montgomery, it's not surprising that the team repeatedly forced long jumpers, took ill-advised shots and rarely played within the team concept. Individually, a few key players disappointed. Foremost among them was small forward Mike Dunleavy, who signed a five-year, $45 million extension in the offseason and seemingly set about proving that the Warriors had wasted their money.

He was well below average at both ends of the court, with his wayward shooting particularly disappointing, but what made it worse was that the Warriors couldn't replace him. The other small forward, Mickael Pietrus, missed two months with a knee injury, and when he came back he was even worse than Dunleavy. As a Band-Aid, the Warriors often found themselves using a three-guard alignment of Davis, Jason Richardson and Derek Fisher.

Speaking of Davis, he was perhaps the biggest reason the playoff drought continued. Once again, his inability to stay healthy had a major impact, as Davis played only 54 games. But he was as big a problem on the court as he was off it. The team's most talented player was also its least disciplined, leading the three-ring circus on offense with his awful shot selection and routinely ignoring play calls from the bench. Montgomery's inability to keep Davis under control had a wider impact, as the locker room bordered on mutiny by the end of the season.

In between the madness there were enough bright spots to keep fans interested. Rookie forward Ike Diogu showed outstanding offensive potential, although his inability to pair defensively with Troy Murphy in the frontcourt kept his minutes down. Second-rounder Monta Ellis also showed flashes of brilliance in his first year out of high school, while Latvian teenager Andris Biedrins put himself on the cusp of stealing the starting center spot. Finally, Richardson had his best season as a pro, averaging 23.2 points per game and defending with far greater vigor than in previous campaigns.

Montgomery's men also did a decent job at the defensive end. Golden State ranked 17th in the league in defensive efficiency, which isn't great, but considering the limitations of the frontcourt and the lack of a perimeter stopper it was about as good as could be expected. Davis, Fisher and center Adonal Foyle were the only above-average defenders on the roster, and it was tough for the first two to make much of an impact from the point-guard spot.

OFFSEASON MOVES

Golden State made few moves in the offseason, yet it still was a very interesting summer. The Warriors came in with the idea that they'd make several changes to the roster after 2005-06's disappointment, targeting free agents like Atlanta's Al Harrington and looking to move some of their young talent for more experienced players.

Unfortunately, they couldn't get anything done. Golden State went out of the running for Harrington once the Hawks decided they didn't need any warm bodies in return, and other efforts at reshaping the roster also failed to bear fruit.

So with no deals to be made and general manager Chris Mullin's cap situation ruined by his previous misdeeds (signing Fisher and Foyle, extending Dunleavy and Murphy, trading for Davis) he played what is essentially the last card in his hand -- he changed coaches.

In an unusual maneuver, he whacked Montgomery four months after the season ended and out of the blue announced that Don Nelson would be returning as head coach. This went over well will the locals -- the 66-year-old Nellie was the last man to coach the Warriors to the playoffs -- but it's also a bit of a smoke screen, masking the fact that Golden State got precious little done over the summer.

Traded Fisher to Utah for Devin Brown, Keith McLeod and Andre Owens. Golden State's biggest move was a salary dump, as the Warriors opted to sell high on Fisher after his big season in 2005-06 and get some of their costs under control. Fisher will make roughly $6 million a year for the next four seasons, while Brown, McLeod and Owens all have deals that expire in 2007.

Owens has no value, but Brown and McLeod will be end-of-rotation players. McLeod is the weaker of the two, a marginal player who should be a No. 3 point guard. But as of now he is the only true point guard besides Davis on the roster; this leads to the scary thought that he might start 20 games when Davis has his annual bout with injuries. Brown is a decent backup shooting guard if his back isn't bothering him and could play quite a bit if the Warriors go small as much as expected.

Drafted Patrick O'Bryant. Golden State needs more size, but the O'Bryant selection was an odd choice because the Warriors seem more focused on immediate results, and he was viewed by most as a long-term project. Additionally, several talented wings were on the board and Golden State could use help there, too.

As I keep reminding everyone when a team makes this kind of move, 7-foot centers taken in the mid-to-late lottery have an absolutely horrid track record. O'Bryant is an example of what I call the Yinka Rule, named after late Nets center Yinka Dare. Basically, 7-foot centers taken in the second half of the lottery almost never pan out, because big people are scarce enough that if the guy was really any good he'd go in the top three picks. The team making the selection is almost always doing it out of desperation rather than a rational belief that this is one of the 10 or 15 best players on the board.

Based on recent history, the Warriors are looking at about one-in-four odds that O'Bryant becomes a useful player -- not a star player, just a decent one. Of the previous 19 players who were at least 7 feet tall, weighed at least 250 pounds and were taken between picks Nos. 4 and 15 in the NBA draft, only four -- Dikembe Mutombo, Chris Mihm, Chris Kaman, and Bryant Reeves -- were even decent, and only Mutombo became an All-Star. DeSagana Diop has a chance to make it five, but either way it's an absolutely horrid hit rate for a draft position where teams otherwise almost always get somebody decent.

BIGGEST STRENGTH

Youth. This team almost has to get better because it's so young. Ten players on the roster were 25 or younger last year, and with the trade of Derek Fisher, only one player on the roster -- Adonal Foyle -- is over 27. The most intriguing players are the youngest. Biedrins is only 20 and is a 62 percent career shooter who can rebound and block shots, although he's still very rough around the edges. Ellis is 21 and shows lots of promise as a Sam Cassell-type scoring guard, while another 2005 second-round draft pick, Chris Taft, is also 21 and played very well at the start of last season before back trouble ended his season.

But the best of the group is probably Diogu, who is potentially a stud low-post scorer at just 6-8 thanks to his long arms and variety of moves. The 23-year-old could end up pushing Murphy for a starting job this year and, longer term, may make him expendable.

Other younger players could also take steps forward. Pietrus is 24 and Dunleavy is 26; both were disasters last season but each could perform substantially better. And Richardson has played so long that it's hard to remember he's just 25.

BIGGEST WEAKNESS

Shot selection. How does a team as talented as this one finish 28th in field-goal percentage? By throwing up crap all game, that's how. Davis may have displayed the worst shot selection in basketball last season, flinging ill-chosen 3s off the dribble whenever the moment struck him, and unfortunately he spawned imitators as the year went on.

Golden State's love affair with the 3-pointer was particularly distressing. Four players -- Davis, Dunleavy, Murphy and Pietrus -- combined to average a whopping 15 3-point attempts per game, even though each made less than a third of his tries. As a percentage of total shot attempts, the Warriors tried more 3-pointers than any team except Phoenix. But while the Suns also led the league in percentage, Golden State ranked 22nd. So in effect, the Warriors were focusing most of their energy on the phase of the game where they were worst.

Davis clearly was the worst culprit, but none of the perimeter players, not even Richardson, was immune from the quick-jumper virus that plagued the team. An easy way to see how much damage it did is by comparing the team's true shooting percentage (TS%) on 3-pointers to how it did on other shots. Golden State's TS% on those attempts was 52.5, much better than its 51.2 mark on 3-pointers. Only nine teams had a greater differential, and none of them shot the long ball with anywhere near as much frequency as Golden State.

2006-07 OUTLOOK

Even with the locker-room anarchy, Golden State was close to being a playoff team last year -- the Warriors had 36 "expected wins" and were in the thick of the race before going 10-20 down the stretch. Based on that fact and the expected improvements from Nelson's return, some folks are automatically penciling Golden State into the postseason.

However, I doubt it will be that easy. For one thing, the Western Conference is a tough nut to crack, since basically every team except Portland will enter the season expecting to make the playoffs. For another, it's easy to forget that the Warriors had a number of things go right last season. Richardson and Fisher both had career years, while Murphy may have peaked as well. Golden State also defended well by its recent standards, an area where Nelson's record says he won't make much impact.

Additionally, the Warriors have less talent on hand now that Fisher is gone; one of the youngsters has to step up just for Golden State to break even with where they were last season. And regardless of who is coaching, the Warriors remain devoid of a true star and are clearly subpar at two of the five positions (small forward and center).

Nellie will make things interesting -- look for Dunleavy to play power forward in a smaller lineup much more often, and the kids will get enough minutes and freedom to speed their development along. But the team's weaknesses are too much for him to overcome in the short term. Golden State's win total might creep closer to 40, but it says here the playoff drought goes on for at least one more year.