ITS NOT what would YOU LIKE, its what YOU THINK simons will get it would be preferable if you would wrote prediction in the thread too, so we can know each others predicitons
The higher end of these options is classic Olshey. Paying way over what production has been based on a small sample size. Hopefully Cronin doesn't do the same thing. Make it something on the lower end with a Player Option after year 2 if he proves himself over the course of even 1 season. We all hope he looks great, but he excelled for a short stretch in non-pressure games in a position he won't occupy this coming season or as long as Dame is here.
Maybe I've been conditioned by a decade of Olshey, but I'm expecting something along the lines of 5y starting at 22M, which would come out to about 127M. I'll be pleasantly surprised if it's lower than that.
If Cronin and Ant are primarily negotiating with each other you may have a point. Now what if a 3rd team throws a near max offer at Ant? Blazers would really only have a choice of either match or try to get an asset back in a sign and trade. Perhaps you want Ant to actually get another team to do that before they offer him a big deal?
Of course we would like a low offer from another team, but what if some team offers a larger offer as a 'favor' to his agency?
Yeah I'm expecting similar. Also the way Ant and Nurk shut it down; I don't think they do this unless Cronin gave them a very generous number.
I think it also comes down to how set the Blazers are on keeping Ant. If they want to 100% keep him then you probably offer him a pretty generous deal such as starting at $20+ million and going up, with the hope he immediately accepts. That might be an overpay, but it avoids the worst case scenario of a max offer starting closer to $30 million. If the Blazers instead are prioritizing having valuable contracts on the books they could try to push for a deal closer to $15 million. There is probably a much higher chance Ant will shop for a better deal, and thus a much higher chance a 3rd team offers closer to that $30 million max. The Blazers might have to be willing to let Ant walk in such a scenario. If the Blazers aren't willing to accept a small risk of Ant walking with a huge offer its probably better to just lock him up as I first mentioned.
Agreed. The poll max 4 year option is only $98 million? The poll should go up to the max which is certainly in play. We've seen players with much worse production and potential maxed off rookie deals. I could see a team like Orlando or San Antonio just saying what the heck and maxing him; they either get a player for free even if slightly overpaid. If not then they screw up our cap.
One last point; similar to ~2015 the cap may go way up from the new TV deal, so even a max deal signed this summer will be a much lower percentage the last few years. Along with pathetic list of free agents this summer, it might lead to teams willing to overpay more than in the past.
I had a typo. I meant 100. But ya this is my rationale. Other teams would give him those deals without hesitation. To keep him from shopping for those offers, this is the cost.
I wonder what max offer another team can give him is? I think starting just over $30 million, and 3 years with player option 4th, plus raises. So maybe its around 4 years $130 million?
Agreed. I wouldn't do a player option unless forced to by 3rd team giving him that. Nurk I'm fine giving a player option as he doesn't really have that star potential. Simons has a chance at it, even if I'd say more likely than not he doesn't achieve that level. With a player option your really hurting the upside potential of signing him which is a primary benefit of bringing him back. Plus with the cap going up, if he is a free agent and gets a max in a few years it could end up being closer to $200 million or something. Or as an UFA he just leaves for nothing. It's better to overpay 5-10million now and avoid giving Ant that option. The Timberwolves made this mistake with Kevin Love, and the Jazz with Gordan Hayward. Finally, having Ant locked up for more years increases his trade value if the Blazers ever decide to pivot to a new direction.
