Kirilenko?

Discussion in 'Golden State Warriors' started by Montaman, Jun 3, 2007.

  1. Montaman

    Montaman JBB JustBBall Member

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    Supposedly on the outs in Utah. Everybody knows what he can bring, as he's been one of the NBA's most unique and prolific stat sheet stuffers throughout his career... one of the few players in the NBA who can run the floor as well as he does and still be a dominant shotblocker.
     
  2. wtwalker77

    wtwalker77 JBB JustBBall Member

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    I actually thought about this when the Warriors were playing Utah. But with his max contract, who would you trade? Richardson for Kirilenko works straight up. They've got the same length contract, but Kirilenko makes another 2+ mil a year. Utah is close to the luxury tax, so they're not going to be willing to take on a guy like Jasikevicius just to help the Warriors drop their cap number.

    While it solves the pf defensive problem somewhat, it doesn't really address the rebounding problem. Taking on the additional salary also makes it harder to re-sign Biedrins and Ellis.

    I'd still prefer the Warriors to address their power forward problems through the draft.
     
  3. AlleyOop

    AlleyOop JBB JustBBall Member

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    <div class="quote_poster">wtwalker77 Wrote</div><div class="quote_post">I actually thought about this when the Warriors were playing Utah. But with his max contract, who would you trade? Richardson for Kirilenko works straight up. They've got the same length contract, but Kirilenko makes another 2+ mil a year. Utah is close to the luxury tax, so they're not going to be willing to take on a guy like Jasikevicius just to help the Warriors drop their cap number.

    While it solves the pf defensive problem somewhat, it doesn't really address the rebounding problem. Taking on the additional salary also makes it harder to re-sign Biedrins and Ellis.

    I'd still prefer the Warriors to address their power forward problems through the draft.</div>

    Interesting. Earlier in the year -- many users, including myself, were lamenting over how intriguing a guy like Kirilinko could be in Nellie's system. A lanky, tough, athletic shot-blocker who doesn't need the ball in his hands to be effective. What more could you ask for!?!

    Well, at a decent contract, AK-47 is a dream addition. A sensation. The perfect fit. However, there's a problem: he makes $13.7 mils next season. If he were putting up 20pts 9 reb 2 blk, that would be a great deal. However, because of his intangibles, the salary is much harder to judge.

    If you trade for Kirilinko, will you get that lanky Russian guy with the confidence problems, or will you get that Drago assassin from the Rocky movie? It's a big gamble.

    Jrich is the heart and soul of the team. With that said, a straight up swap would be very, very interesting. Do you get a Boozer? No. Do you "solve" the rebounding issue? No. Would Utah beat you in a 7 game series? Probably worse than before, with the athletic Jrich complementing Boozer/ Deron Williams.

    With that said, overall, it might be a good move, especially if the Drago AK-47 can emerge. How scary is this:

    Baron
    Monta
    SJax
    AK-47
    Beans

    That's some thunder right there. AK + Beans is a super shotblocking tandem. NOTHING will be coming close to the rim uncontested. We saw it in the playoffs. AK-47 nearly had 5 or 6 blocks per 1st quarter just by rotating over weakside. Put him next to Beans, and NO SHOT goes uncontested.

    Ahh. In the fantasy land. Too bad this is reality. I just wouldn't want to give up on JRich, yet. While he has just as good a chance at becoming a star as several other players, we owe it to him, if anyone. He's been there for us fans. He's never waivered. I would make a TERRIBLE GM because my heart would factor into business decisions. I just can't give up on JRich.

    Now, Al Harrington + sing-n-trade Pietrus,..... Oh HELL YEAH I DO DAT!!!!!
     
  4. Custodianrules2

    Custodianrules2 Cohan + Rowell = Suck

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    I like Andrei "Ivan Drago" Kirilenko as much as anyone else does, but I'm really worried about his injuries every season (much like Baron) and his ability to handle power forward full time. There's certain guys he can guard at SF and PF and there are others where he could just get destroyed in the post or outquicked (unless he plays off and uses his wingspan and lateral speed to play the angles). On the plus side, he is one of the most mobile weakside help shotblockers and he's great moving without the ball and passing it. I like how he can be used to play the passing lanes since steals are very important in getting those transition buckets we can't get off of defensive rebounding (or lack thereof). I like his talent, but don't like the price. It's similar to how I view Shawn Marion. Yeah, either the Matrix or Ak47 can get us closer in the playoffs, but by how much? I'm hoping a max contract guy can be the power forward or center we need to bang inside and give us 50% inside the paint and connect on at least 68% free throw %. We need some dominance inside there so we can slow the pace when we have to. That's what I'm hoping the Warriors don't spend on too many max deals, because we might run into one like the Cavs ran into Boozer or Portland ran into Zebo or Clips got Elton Brand from Chicago and so on.
     
  5. kobe23

    kobe23 JBB JustBBall Member

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    I honestly dont know how this would work for GS but if Jrich for AK47 pushes through then the Jazz qould have a complete lineup... All they needed last season was a scoring type SG
     
  6. Custodianrules2

    Custodianrules2 Cohan + Rowell = Suck

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    <div class="quote_poster">kobe23 Wrote</div><div class="quote_post">I honestly dont know how this would work for GS but if Jrich for AK47 pushes through then the Jazz qould have a complete lineup... All they needed last season was a scoring type SG</div>

    Maybe, just a perimeter scorer in general since Jrich's game looks nothing like a real shooting guard's. I don't want to see Jrich in Utah though... not for AK. Jrich for Brand, I'd do. LOL [​IMG]
     
  7. Montaman

    Montaman JBB JustBBall Member

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    Trade checker shows we could work a three team deal for AK. Also, I understand Sloan doesn't like/play Ronnie Brewer very much.
     
  8. Custodianrules2

    Custodianrules2 Cohan + Rowell = Suck

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    <div class="quote_poster">Montaman Wrote</div><div class="quote_post">Trade checker shows we could work a three team deal for AK. Also, I understand Sloan doesn't like/play Ronnie Brewer very much.</div>

    In Warriors terms, it's the Mike Montgomery principle. Jerry Sloan, the slow ball coach, doesn't like rookies. Brewer is a rookie. I faced the same thing when Sloan stopped playing Deron Williams in his rookie year. It totally jacked my fantasy lineup because I needed his assists, points, and steals and I never knew how much playing time he'd get or if he'd get a DNP. What a waste of a pick. Freakin' Sloan. Freakin' stubborn slowball coaches. Freakin' Mike Montgomery. Just kidding. I understand why they do it (for developmental reasons and maybe keep egos in check), but it doesn't help me in my fantasy roster when I know the player is good. I still think if Deron Williams got more playing time he'd make a legitimate case for ROY.

    And Montgomery also screwed me over when I happened to get Ike Diogu his rookie year. I could have had a 16/8 or potential 20/10 with a shotblock and free throws at PF or C. Dang... What could have been an awesome fantasy year didn't happen. Instead, I should have drafted Ryan Gomes, David West, or Charlie V.
     
  9. upsidedownside7

    upsidedownside7 JBB JustBBall Member

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    In a MINUTE.

    Remember what Barnes brought Golden State vs. Dallas? Well imagine the same thing except by someone twice as talented.

    Kirilenko for JRich in a minute, dude.
     
  10. upsidedownside7

    upsidedownside7 JBB JustBBall Member

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    <div class="quote_poster">wtwalker77 Wrote</div><div class="quote_post">IThey've got the same length contract, but Kirilenko makes another 2+ mil a year. Utah is close to the luxury tax, so they're not going to be willing to take on a guy like Jasikevicius just to help the Warriors drop their cap number.

    While it solves the pf defensive problem somewhat, it doesn't really address the rebounding problem. Taking on the additional salary also makes it harder to re-sign Biedrins and Ellis.

    I'd still prefer the Warriors to address their power forward problems through the draft.</div>

    So what? Keeping Richardson is going to make just as hard to resign Biedrins and Ellis. That 2 million isn't going to do very much, especially when the difference in price brings you an elite defender. Signing the kids have more to do with trading Harrington for capspace and Foyle expiring. Ideally I'd like to keep Harrington but if we're trading for Kirilenko, yeah, I'd absolutely trade Harrington for an inferior player with a smaller contract.

    You don't want Kirilenko? Okay. Expecting the warriors to address their power forward problems with the 18th pick in this year's draft? That's just not going to happen that low in the draft. Either way the warriors have to make a trade this offseason to address that.
     
  11. Montaman

    Montaman JBB JustBBall Member

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    If I remember correctly, Kirilenko really started lighting the league ablaze after Malone left and he started creating matchup problems at the PF spot. The he had to slide down because of Boozer, but he's clearly a 4 in Nelson's system. He's also a defender with a good rep. Biedrins is an example of a good defender with no rep. He got some atrocious calls against him because he's young and agressive, but more often than not he makes good plays without fouling. Kirilenko is the same way, but he's been at it long enough that refs are willing to give him the benefit of the doubt.
     
  12. upsidedownside7

    upsidedownside7 JBB JustBBall Member

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    <div class="quote_poster">Montaman Wrote</div><div class="quote_post">If I remember correctly, Kirilenko really started lighting the league ablaze after Malone left and he started creating matchup problems at the PF spot. The he had to slide down because of Boozer, but he's clearly a 4 in Nelson's system. He's also a defender with a good rep. Biedrins is an example of a good defender with no rep. He got some atrocious calls against him because he's young and agressive, but more often than not he makes good plays without fouling. Kirilenko is the same way, but he's been at it long enough that refs are willing to give him the benefit of the doubt.</div>

    Totally agree, he'd be a perfect 4 for Don Nelson.

    Seriously, even in that Houston series where Kirilenko cried like a little bitch and basically dissapeared, he made a huge impact game 7, he shut down McGrady during crunch time. I mean he really did, it wasn't like McGrady was struggling, Kirilenko took him out of the game. Without Kirilenko, the Jazz lose the series.
     
  13. AlleyOop

    AlleyOop JBB JustBBall Member

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    Can AK-47 really join the Warriors after getting posterized by Baron in the POs?
     
  14. CohanHater

    CohanHater JBB JustBBall Member

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    <div class="quote_poster">Quote:</div><div class="quote_post">Can AK-47 really join the Warriors after getting posterized by Baron in the POs?</div>

    Absolutely.... He'd be the perfect fit. Beidrins could be a legit 5 with Andre next to him. You can lay off a little if the helpside d is coming. I think the 2 would be an awesome shot blocking tandem. 1 for the ages.
     
  15. AlleyOop

    AlleyOop JBB JustBBall Member

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    <div class="quote_poster">CohanHater Wrote</div><div class="quote_post">Absolutely.... He'd be the perfect fit. Beidrins could be a legit 5 with Andre next to him. You can lay off a little if the helpside d is coming. I think the 2 would be an awesome shot blocking tandem. 1 for the ages.</div>

    heh, I know, I was joking [​IMG] (see my post above)

    On a separate note, if Sloan doesn't want to develop Brewer, we'll be more than happy to!!

    And I know the perfect home for Sarunas Jasekevicus: Utah!!

    They need a back-up point guard (since D-Fish plays SG), although they have Dee Brown (is it?), but Sarunas would be a perfect 1/2-court Sloan guy. Another slow bulldog with excellent passing ability.

    JRich + Sarunas for AK-47 + Brewer works cap wise, although Utah probably wouldn't do it
     
  16. Kwan1031

    Kwan1031 JBB JustBBall Member

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    If we ever plan to take another max player, we better make sure that he is a franchise changing player, not just a good fit who may play well with other players. AK47 may be a good fit. But, for a max player, I would certainly like to get far more than that. I believe both Richardson and Jackson complement each other well. Jackson can drive, but he is an inconsistent shooter. Richardson cannot slice the defense, but he is a good outside shooter and can post up. If we lose one of two, that player's weaknesses would be exposed. So, whoever we replace better cover those weaknesses. Then, can AK47 replace Jackson's weaknesses? If any, AK47 is even worse and inconsistent offensive player than Jackson. He can't shoot 3 pts, which is critical for our style, and he can't post up either. As a matter of fact, throughout PO, we dared AK47 to shoot from the outside and double teamed other players. I also realize that Richardson hasn't been a perfect fit for our team. But, AK47 is capable of putting 8.6 pts in regular season, and 9.6 pts in PO, which is roughly half of Richardson's production. Even in good season, AK47 never put better than 16.5 pts. If we exchange Richardson for AK47, that would be a huge downgrade in our offense.

    Then, does he bring other elements which will help this club? We know he can defend and block. But, he is a better fit to defend wing players with his speed and length, and as far as I know, he isn't exactly known to shut down premier 4's such as Duncan, Stoudmire, Boozer and such. We have Jackson for a wing player, Biedrins to protect the rim, and we are looking to avoid another massacre Boozer put on us. AK47 may be our best post up defender by default. But, if he can't contain premier 4's, then he isn't exactly our ideal 4. In terms of block, AK47 has a Foyle's sense (which is very good), length and speed, and there is no doubt that he is one of the best shot blocker in the league. He would be a nice addition, but we are already no. 3 in shot blocking. In contrary, we are dead last in rebounding difference (-5.0), and that's what we are looking for our PF. Last year, AK47 averaged 4.7 rebounds, and that's 1.7 less than Harrington, who is a horrible rebounder for PF. Even in his best season, AK47 only averaged 8.1 rebounds. By no mean, he is our solutions at many problems.

    If we take AK47 in exchange for Richardson, you can basically forget about resigning both Biedrins and Monta, because we have no room to sign both. Heck, you can even argue that we may not even afford just one. And, 2.5 mils difference between Richardson and AK47 is not a small matter. In luxury tax term, Cohan has to pay 5 mils. Also, for the teams like us, which don't like to go over luxury tax threshold, we can sign Barnes, Azu, and Ellis and then some. Teams like Suns constantly sold their first rounders (which will give them roughly 1 mils breathing room) to avoid luxury tax. And, what if he became a dud like last season? He will be untradable, and his salary will be bit less than Murphy and Dunleavy combined with 4 years remaining in his contract. I don't even want to think about that nightmare.

    Then, there is an injury and mental problem. In last 3 seasons, AK47 averaged 41, 69 and 70 games, averaging 60 games per season. And, what make you say that he will regain his former form instead of duplicating 8.3 pts / 4.7 rebounding season? He may, he may not. But, that's not something I would like to gamble when we take max contract. There is no question on Davis' performance when we took him. But, for AK47, there is an injury issue and performance issue.

    If there is no salary restriction, AK47 would be a nice addition. But, although he would be an enhancement for what we are good at, he does not address number of our weaknesses, such as half court offense, post up defense, and rebounding. And, in terms of offense, we may even downgrading ourself. Then, there are number of big question marks, and instead of trading expiring contract, we are trading our 2nd best player for AK47. This is too big of a gamble for max player, and even in the best situation, he doesn't cover key weaknesses of this club...
     
  17. upsidedownside7

    upsidedownside7 JBB JustBBall Member

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    If Kirilenko returns to ALL STAR form (which I'm betting he would here), he'd help this team more than Richardson ever could.

    Really we're talking about two guys who can't single handedly lead their teams to the playoffs. So we're talking about two second fiddle players and both of which don't really fit on their teams anymore. JRich is an awesome player but he's not a Nelly player. He can't handle, he doesn't go the line, he's not a very good defender and he's more strong than fast. Kirilenko isn't really a 3, he's not a good scoring option in a slow tempo offense, not a shooter and he's getting paid too much to be the team's 4th option.

    More offense isn't where our problem is, defense is. Kirilenko isn't a big bruiser but Nelly doesn't really want one. We can get that sort of player on the cheap, like with a 2nd rounder or a trade, like Reggie Evans. Kirilenko would be the best interior defender/rebounder on the squad by default while blocking shots, putting pressure on the ball, running the break and guarding the team's best player. That's perfect, a slow bruiser isn't going to fit with Don Nelson anyways.

    Outside the top 3 in the draft...Oden, Durant, Horford and maybe Wright, no big guy will ever be a player of Kirilenko's status. The asking price for any of the players in the top ten would probably be Montay Ellis which I wouldn't touch with a ten footpole. In the trade market? Garnett, Jermaine, Pau, Brand aren't coming here. Richardson will never be traded for a franchise player because he isn't one himself.

    Again, that 2 million dollars isn't going to make or break signing Montay and Biedrins. Both are going to want big contracts and the only way we're going to sign both is to reshuffle the roster. Hell I'd even trade away POB to a team under the cap for that 2 million if it really mattered. Besides if you trade Richardson, you'd have to expect equal salary in return, they won't ever trade him for capspace, this Kirilenko trade won't hurt or help resiging Montay and Biedrins.
     
  18. AlleyOop

    AlleyOop JBB JustBBall Member

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    Kwan, next time don't wait so long before laying down the law. You could have saved us a lot of senseless debate!

    Kwan = future GM of the Year

    edit: wait, now I'm being swayed by upsidedownside7

    [​IMG]

    why can't someone make up my mind for me!?

    Okay, well, is AK-47 the perfect Nellie guy? no. But neither is JRich. And, more importantly, what if we start amassing all these Nellie-ball players, and then Nellie retires?!

    Also, AK-47's numbers were hurt last year because of injuries. But this is a guy who has had a season of: 16.5 pts, 8.1 reb, 3.1 ast, 1.9 stl, and 2.8 blk and another season of 15.3 pts, 8 reb, 4.3 ast, 1.5 stl, and 3.2 blk

    Those are amazingly complete lines. Is he a go-to scorer who can average 20+? Maybe, but probably not. But, is he, overall, a better team-impact player than JRich? Probably.

    Ak-47 can do more things, including a HUGE thing for this team: defense. Not only blocks--which is a nice stat but nothing more than a stat-- but altering shots, helping Beans weakside, getting into anyone who enters the lane. He's a scrapper.

    Will he solve the rebounding issue? No. Will he score as much as JRich? No. Will he impact this team in a dramatic fashion? I'd have to bet yes.

    However, if I were Mullin I couldn't do that, I couldn't make JRich live in Utah. That'd be torture. [​IMG]
     
  19. Kwan1031

    Kwan1031 JBB JustBBall Member

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    <div class="quote_poster">upsidedownside7 Wrote</div><div class="quote_post">If Kirilenko returns to ALL STAR form (which I'm betting he would here), he'd help this team more than Richardson ever could.

    Really we're talking about two guys who can't single handedly lead their teams to the playoffs. So we're talking about two second fiddle players and both of which don't really fit on their teams anymore. JRich is an awesome player but he's not a Nelly player. He can't handle, he doesn't go the line, he's not a very good defender and he's more strong than fast. Kirilenko isn't really a 3, he's not a good scoring option in a slow tempo offense, not a shooter and he's getting paid too much to be the team's 4th option.

    More offense isn't where our problem is, defense is. Kirilenko isn't a big bruiser but Nelly doesn't really want one. We can get that sort of player on the cheap, like with a 2nd rounder or a trade, like Reggie Evans. Kirilenko would be the best interior defender/rebounder on the squad by default while blocking shots, putting pressure on the ball, running the break and guarding the team's best player. That's perfect, a slow bruiser isn't going to fit with Don Nelson anyways.

    Outside the top 3 in the draft...Oden, Durant, Horford and maybe Wright, no big guy will ever be a player of Kirilenko's status. The asking price for any of the players in the top ten would probably be Montay Ellis which I wouldn't touch with a ten footpole. In the trade market? Garnett, Jermaine, Pau, Brand aren't coming here. Richardson will never be traded for a franchise player because he isn't one himself.

    Again, that 2 million dollars isn't going to make or break signing Montay and Biedrins. Both are going to want big contracts and the only way we're going to sign both is to reshuffle the roster. Hell I'd even trade away POB to a team under the cap for that 2 million if it really mattered. Besides if you trade Richardson, you'd have to expect equal salary in return, they won't ever trade him for capspace, this Kirilenko trade won't hurt or help resiging Montay and Biedrins.</div>

    First, you are betting that he will turn himself to All-Star form. That's a huge gamble for someone who gets max contract. There is no question that the best AK47 will help any team more than Richardson. But, if he doesn't turn into the All-Star form and remains where he is now, we are looking at Vin Baker or Kemp fiasco for next 4 years, which will pretty much screw up the financial structure for a long time. We are already in a financial problem, and if we get to take a dud max contract, we are looking at immidate firesale and another few years of struggle. We know what we will get from Richardson, and he will always have some trading value. We do not have a clue how AK47 will turn in next few years, and his last year's performance is horrendous for a max player. We gave Foyle a 8.5 mils per year/5 years contract despite his horrendous contract year, just because what he has been, and we know the rest. When there is no solid reason why AK47 will regain his All-Star form and the downside is a firesale and years of financial struggle, I would not take that gamble.

    Offense may not be our problem. However, that doesn't mean we should downgrade our offense, which is a lifeline for Nelson's system. Richardson did not fit into Nelson's offense system quite well. However, that didn't stop him from averaging 16 pts in injury-riddled season, and nearly 20 pts/47% from the field as his knee gets healthy and 19.1 pts/47.6% in PO. Whether he fits into the system or not, Richardson will produce offensively because of his skill, and that was good enough for Nelson to put Richardson on the court for 36 mins. In contrast, AK47 really doesn't have many offense skill to play for Nelson. Against Spurs in 5 game series...

    Game 1: 29 mins / 3-5 fg / 0-0 ft / 7 pts
    Game 2: 38 mins / 5-11 fg / 5-7 ft / 15 pts
    Game 3: 30 mins / 0-2 fg / 2-4 ft / 2 pts
    Game 4: 36 mins / 3-7 fg / 3-4 ft / 9 pts
    Game 5: 32 mins / 4-11 fg /5-6 ft / 13 pts

    (If you think brining Spurs series is unfair, there is a reason for that)

    Basically, he hangs around for 30 mins, take opportunistic shots, and not really involves in offense. Doesn't that reminds of somebody we just traded? You can even argue that Dunelavy may even be a better fit for the offense than AK47. Also, Nelson hates players who can't score, and that's why he even went small ball without Biedrins, the only defensive force. First, I don't know how much Nelson would utilize AK47 when he isn't much of an offense force. Then, if he ever use him, I doubt that he and Biedrins would be on the court at the same time. By substituting Biedrins for AK47, we are not looking at significant defense upgrade. Because of Nelson's system, putting cheap banger, such as Evans, is also unlikely. Nelson would rather get slaughtered in one end and try to outscore in another end than putting two offensive liabilities on the court at the same time. Otherwise, we would have seen Foyle, Powell or POB on the court in Utah series a lot more. And, that's why we are looking for an elite PF, who can score, rebound and defend somewhat.

    In defense, AK47 would enhance what we are already good at. He will fly around and alter the shot in defense end. We all saw how he bothered us in PO. But, if we ever plan to move to the next step, we need a player, who can play well against elite teams like Spurs or Jazz, who slows down the game and play halfcourt. What we need is to improve our weaknesses, not enhance what we are already good at. This team is such an unbalanced team. Our strength can create the biggest upset in PO history. However, our weakness is bad enough to make Boozer like a Shaq. When we desperately need to cover our weakness, what's the point of enhancing our chaotic defense, downgrading our offense, and not address our significant weaknesses?

    Do not underestimate the difference of 2.5 millions, since 2 millions increase in salary cap allowed Washington to take Arenas. And, there are number of cases, where teams couldn't offer 2 more millions to players and lose those players to other teams. Also, we are in a situation to save every single penny possible to resign both Biedrins and Monta. The last thing we need to do is to add yet another 2.5 millions. And, if we really really need to dump salaries to resign both Biedrins and Monta, we may possibly find a suitor, who may exchange Richardson + sweetner for expiring contract. You will never dream of doing that with AK47, unless he turns himself into former form.

    This team needs to improve half court offense / post up defense / rebounding desperately in order to move to the next step. AK47 doesn't bring any of those aspect, and even if we make this deal, we will still look for an elite 4, who can do those. In another word, this move would be lateral move at best with huge downside if things go wrong. Even at the best situation, I doubt that AK47 would allow us to move to the next level, when he can't cover any of our significant weaknesses. In addition, as Jazz gets better, his contribution dwindled for some reason. I am not against trading Richardson. However, I have to pass on AK47...
     
  20. AlleyOop

    AlleyOop JBB JustBBall Member

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    Okay, I'm back on board the Kwan bandwagon [​IMG]
     

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