I know there are threads upon threads like this, but I got to thinking…….. What happens if we end up with the 7th or 8th pick? Is that plus Ant worth any needle mover types? I’ve seen discussions around 1. I’ve seen ideas around 2-5, but what if it’s 7-8?
What happens when my daughter inevitably kicks me in the balls again because she’s a toddler and she seems to be good at it?
You make the best deal you can or you draft the best player available. Then you do your best from there. We're going to have to trade Ant and something for an at-or-near all star wing. Or a player who will be that good for us.
Todays draft lottery results running the simulator 5 times all after reset. 8, 2, 8, 2, 7 Be prepared for "Lottery Loser" status.
“And in unprecedented fashion, the Portland Trailblazers will select 31st in the first round. We just realized we forgot to include them, and accidentally drew the Hornets twice” “c’est la vie”
Yeah there's a 56.6% chance that we get moved back and only a 42.1% chance of us moving up. Not the worst of odds but still more likely that we move back than move up or at 2.2% stay at 5.
If the pick is 7-8 makes it even more clear this team can't contend with Dame. Hopefully they would take a longer term approach and rebuild around Shae/Ant/etc Obviously getting #1 is a game changer of course I'm rooting for that. But not sure if we get #2-4 would the team make bad decisions to try and win now? In that case I'd prefer #8 if it means we'll instead keep the pick and do a proper good quality rebuild. Not sure I remember a draft with such a high value difference from #1 to #2.
Plenty of all time greats have gone #7 and much lower and it's very likely that many quality players will be available there this year. I continue to think thats it's far more likely they are able to attain contender status primarily through the draft then by trade &/or Free Agency, though it would take hitting on a couple more picks. Unless it's a truly great player (like most expect VW to be), they are more then a player a way from being legitimate contenders. Even if they luck out and get #1, it will likely take another season of young talent maturing to truly ascend to contender status. When a sure thing superstar becomes available, it's usually a pretty steep drop off. 1997 for example you had Keith Van Horn going #2 after Duncan... Chauncey Billups went #3. Lots of meh followed but at #9 Tracy McGrady was selected... STOMP
Don't trade that pick. There will still be a very good player available. Remember, when we won the lottery and got Oden, if we HADN'T won it, we could've taken Joakim Noah and been much better off!
Good post, yes I agree. While yes the Blazers might be able to get an allstar at #7 similar to pick #2 - if the Blazers trade the pick its likely worth much more at #2. So if they "cash out" the value of the pick they lose that opportunity to hit on a great selection at #7. This is why I want the Blazers to keep the pick, unless its some rare situation such as Jaylen Brown forcing his way to Portland and we get him at a very fair value.